Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Jaffusmaximus · 10-01-2013 12:51pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Very disappointing this morning. I was genuinely surprised. I dont buy this "the mild solution will always win". Last night the GFS was on its own, didnt even have its own ens support. It does seem the GFS is superior in handling energy in the atlantic. Its not game over yet though, still a bit of hope to cling to.

The US spits out this energy and the ECM has deals with it, lets see how both deal with all that energy once it comes into neighborhood!

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 10-01-2013 12:55pm

Take your pick !

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=1&ech=72&size=2

munsterlegend · 10-01-2013 1:30pm

The latest from UK Met Office suggests Wintry weather for them anyway but considerable uncertainty. It seems they are following ECM over GFS as of now.

UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Jan 2013 to Thursday 24 Jan 2013:

Sunny spells and wintry showers are expected to affect the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday. The showers are expected to be most frequent towards the east with snow likely to low levels, giving the risk of significant accumulations across some eastern counties. More prolonged rain, sleet and snow may spread into the southwest by Wednesday. It will be cold, locally very cold, with widespread overnight frost and ice. Thereafter, there is greater than average uncertainty, but central and western areas are likely to be mainly fine and dry although some rain and milder conditions may temporarily spread into the far west. Elsewhere, snow showers are expected and these spread further west at times. Generally cold with widespread frost, icy patches and freezing fog in places.

Updated: 1137 on Thu 10 Jan 2013

BEASTERLY · 10-01-2013 1:46pm

GFS still not getting much support.
http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/archives/2013011006/gfs-0-102.png

Harps · 10-01-2013 1:53pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Very disappointing this morning. I was genuinely surprised. I dont buy this "the mild solution will always win". Last night the GFS was on its own, didnt even have its own ens support. It does seem the GFS is superior in handling energy in the atlantic. Its not game over yet though, still a bit of hope to cling to.

It's very rare though for us not to be affected whenever there's progressive energy in the north Atlantic, no matter what the setup is and with no real block in place it was always on a knife edge.

The development south of Greenland as always is the crucial area and the ECMWF spread showed a huge amount of uncertainty there last night so I feared the worse this morning. The closer we get to the day the more accurately the complex lows are modelled so I can't see any real backtrack towards significant cold again. Could still be a surprise or two in what actually happens next week but looks like its back to the usual +192h for a proper cold spell

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 10-01-2013 1:54pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

GFS still not getting much support.
http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/archives/2013011006/gfs-0-102.png

Is that the chart you meant to post ?

Glasnevin _ Eagle · 10-01-2013 2:14pm

Ill share more of my thoughts once the mods change my username.

Im not john by the way. Sorry to dissapoint.

Speak Now · 10-01-2013 2:19pm

Glasnevin _ Eagle wrote: »

Hi folks,

Can't say much but I think I'll put some minds at ease. Every GFS since it's backtrack to mild has gone straight in the bin. General consensus is that it's handling of the energy coming through Southern Greenland on Sunday night is very plausible.

Expect a superb 12z ECM for snow lovers. Also a GFS backtrack by the 18z at the latest.

Sorry I can't discuss more.

You were always such a ramper John, we all miss your TV forecasts :pac: :pac:

BEASTERLY · 10-01-2013 2:25pm

Sorry, this was the chart i wanted to post:
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=96&size=2

:eek: Does that post from the Eagle count as meeting your hero? Thanks for the input John!

Speak Now · 10-01-2013 2:26pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Sorry, this was the chart i wanted to post:
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=96&size=2

:eek: Does that post from the Eagle count as meeting your hero? Thanks for the input John!

After looking at that Beasterly i think i'll stop at T72 in future

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 10-01-2013 2:30pm

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Sorry, this was the chart i wanted to post:
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=96&size=2

:eek: Does that post from the Eagle count as meeting your hero? Thanks for the input John!

Ha that makes more sense, I thought ya had lost it

maquiladora · 10-01-2013 2:31pm

Glasnevin _ Eagle wrote: »

Hi folks,

Can't say much but I think I'll put some minds at ease. Every GFS since it's backtrack to mild has gone straight in the bin. General consensus is that it's handling of the energy coming through Southern Greenland on Sunday night is very implausible.

Expect a superb 12z ECM for snow lovers. Also a GFS backtrack by the 18z at the latest.

Sorry I can't discuss more.

Kippure · 10-01-2013 2:33pm

From Steve Murr on Netweather. This a good summary on whats going on at the moment and what The Glasnevin _ Eagle said in previous post.

If people have read some of the things that I have intimated over the years & what ian has confirmed in his posts over the weeks-

* The GFS has poor handling of high pressure systems to the NE- it always has-
* The GFS has a strong atlantic bias- particular on the 06z & 18z suite- especially the ensembles- ie to much energy
* Exeter, whilst viewing the 06z dont take any stock really, all they do however is use it to determine confidence- I have NEVER seen the fax chart modified to the GFS away from UKMO/ECM
* The ECM ensembles & mean are a LOT keener on a the shortwave dropping south than the GFS-
* The fact that the METo have updated next week to ignore the entire GFS shows there is zero confidence-
* THe ARPEGE info MUST be strong-

here is the 12z predictions
UKMO- no change
ECM- westward correction to the UKMO with respect to mondays low-
GFS- a big SW correction & 50% of the ensembles move to the EURO solution.....

S

ZX7R · 10-01-2013 2:36pm

Something to note of interest in Simon keelings forecast today to me anyway ,for the next two days he is using the GSF for his forecast ,the ECM for the weekend and he thinks the GEM is the best for long range...
Who's John

Kippure · 10-01-2013 2:53pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Who's John

A legend amongst men. A towering Glacier of weather Knowledge. There can only be One John....:eek:

BEASTERLY · 10-01-2013 2:56pm

ZX7R wrote: »

Who's John

Get out.

ZX7R · 10-01-2013 2:57pm

Kippure wrote: »

A legend amongst men. A towering Glacier of weather Knowledge. There can only be One John....:eek:

You have to excuse my ignorance as motor bikes are my fist love and weather is my second and i am still learning the second:o

pistolpetes11 · 10-01-2013 2:59pm

Glasnevin _ Eagle wrote: »

Hi folks,

Can't say much but I think I'll put some minds at ease. Every GFS since it's backtrack to mild has gone straight in the bin. General consensus is that it's handling of the energy coming through Southern Greenland on Sunday night is very implausible.

Expect a superb 12z ECM for snow lovers. Also a GFS backtrack by the 18z at the latest.

Sorry I can't discuss more.

If this is someone on a wind up , both your accounts will be banned , I have my suspicions if Im to be honest

Actually this is a wind up , bit embarrassing from the folks who are behind it too .

Glasnevin _ Eagle · 10-01-2013 6:12pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

If this is someone on a wind up , both your accounts will be banned , I have my suspicions if Im to be honest

Actually this is a wind up , bit embarrassing from the folks who are behind it too .

What? I never claimed to be this John character. And I can tell you now im not. Not really my fault that other people jumped to conclusions?

But if my username causes so much hassle I wont post here again. IWN is alright anyway. Or can a mod change it perhaps, maybe just add "Not John" in brackets?

Regards,

Anthony. Call me tony if you wish, not John.

Pangea · 10-01-2013 6:15pm

That awkward moment when you dont know who John is..

munsterlegend · 10-01-2013 6:16pm

Glasnevin _ Eagle wrote: »

What? I never claimed to be this John character. And I can tell you now im not. Not really my fault that other people jumped to conclusions?

But if my username causes so much hassle I wont post here again. IWN is alright anyway. Or can a mod change it perhaps, maybe just add "Not John" in brackets?

Regards,

Anthony. Call me tony if you wish, not John.

Tony whats your view for this neck of the woods given the latest output?

Speak Now · 10-01-2013 6:21pm

Pangea wrote: »

That awkard moment when you dont know who John is..

Anthony Eagleton :pac:

Thought it was funny myself, dont think anyone believed it judging by the use of smiles

Anyway back to 0-120 hours.

Forst tonight away from south coast

Rain in the south tomorrow :mad:

Probably more rain in the south on Saturday

Frost Saturday night

More rain spreading from the west on Sunday

Not pretty :rolleyes:

cherryghost · 10-01-2013 6:23pm

GEM still has -6 uppers along the east coast at 60-78, but we all know GEM sucks anyway.

Glasnevin _ Eagle · 10-01-2013 6:23pm

munsterlegend wrote: »

Tony whats your view for this neck of the woods given the latest output?

As i said GFS has trended to ECM (told ya). People here are saying the UKMO is bad, dont think so, battleground i think.

Tony, trainee car mechanic, dudalk.
(not my famous fellow countyman who is the greastest guy in ME ever and inspired my username. aka. 'this john character')

BEASTERLY · 10-01-2013 6:26pm

Glasnevin _ Eagle wrote: »

As i said GFS has trended to ECM (told ya). People here are saying the UKMO is bad, dont think so, battleground i think.

Tony, trainee car mechanic, dudalk.
(not my famous fellow countyman who is the greastest guy in ME ever and inspired my username. aka. 'this john character')

No no and no. Ukmo is crap. And Gerald fleming is the best met eireann forecaster. No debate on that im afraid.

Nabber · 10-01-2013 6:31pm

Classic stuff in here today

I see the UKMO has come on board with the rest and dropped it's HP East of Iceland in favour of an Atlantic push.
The Atlantic just contains so much energy all year round that we pixie heads just don't get much weather variance regardless of what season it is.

BEASTERLY · 10-01-2013 7:14pm

Harps · 10-01-2013 9:36pm

Too many threads open at the moment, never know where to post what..

Think this is the right place so, ECMWF mean looks generally similar to the Op run. Very different to the GFS mean, all down to how that shortwave around Iceland behaves on Monday

maquiladora · 10-01-2013 9:44pm

According to Matt Hugo 31 of the 51 12Z ECM ensemble members go for cold. I think thats slightly less than the 0Z but still pretty good considering everything.

munsterlegend · 10-01-2013 9:50pm

maquiladora wrote: »

According to Matt Hugo 31 of the 51 12Z ECM ensemble members go for cold. I think thats slightly less than the 0Z but still pretty good considering everything.

Maq were you very surprised by the ECM? Su Campu I recall placed ECM as is more reliable model but I suppose this non model consensus has everyone stumped.

Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

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