Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

Maq were you very surprised by the ECM? Su Campu I recall placed ECM as is more reliable model but I suppose this non model consensus has everyone stumped.

Well it has gotten a few things wrong recently like last weekend when it showed an awesome easterly for two runs then back off on it completely so its by no means perfect. But yeah, its up there with the GFS as the two best models in the world, don't think anyone would argue with that. But no model is perfect, what we need to see is more models showing what the ECM is showing.

cherryghost

The cold looking more resistant similar to the ECM on GFS 18z

BLIZZARD7

New trend today is models reaching somewhat of a middle ground in the short term with just small differences, these turn into big differences in the medium term though. GFS has continued to lean away from its Atlantic breakdown and is starting to smell the coffee that the other models are drinking, i.e shortwave diving south east allowing ridge to build behind it.

Big upgrades in terms of surface temps for next week- now all we need is the uppers to follow and we will be looking at a winter wonderland.




Dan

maquiladora

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

New trend today is models reaching somewhat of a middle ground in the short term with just small differences, these turn into big differences in the medium term though. GFS has continued to lean away from its Atlantic breakdown and is starting to smell the coffee that the other models are drinking, i.e shortwave diving south east allowing ridge to build behind it.

Big upgrades in terms of surface temps for next week- now all we need is the uppers to follow and we will be looking at a winter wonderland.




Dan

A step in the right direction for sure.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

From Glacier Point over on NW:

The real developing story for me being the impending collapse of the polar vortex. We should be looking around day 9/10 for a complete cleaving in half across the Arctic with tropospheric reponse a few days later. A few GFS ensembles showing this.

Still looking very likely that the second phase of cold will come out of the NE.

Strog ensemble mean and teleconnective support for a deep trough to take up residence over Europe in the meantime, and also signal for low pressure in the Atlantic. ECM op not for me

Nabber

I miss this thread. It was the only sane winter thread.
Maybe a n injection of some pictures will get this thread going again.

The models have been at war for nearly a week now with anything beyond 70hrs sometimes less.

Now the difference at 120hrs is still crazy. Have any of the models stuck with their trends?

Harps

That big chunk of the PV is still taking residence in eastern Canada right out to 10 days+ though, as long as thats the case then there's likely going to be a conveyor belt of strong lows developing south of Greenland and heading our way. Continued uninspiring charts this morning with everything again the wrong side of marginal

munsterlegend

Harps wrote: »

That big chunk of the PV is still taking residence in eastern Canada right out to 10 days+ though, as long as thats the case then there's likely going to be a conveyor belt of strong lows developing south of Greenland and heading our way. Continued uninspiring charts this morning with everything again the wrong side of marginal

Is there anything in the models suggesting a push of the colder west over Ireland?

mickger844posts

Just a quick look this morning shows potential for the weekend in the GFS 0z and the ECM 0z showing better potential about a week away. The next 3 days or so look a right off.

odyboody

unfortunately if all this years week away forecasts had come true we would have had an historic winter so far.
As we all know by now models only purpose this winter has been raise our hopes then dash them when we start to get excited.

Storm 10

Anyone have any charts for Sunday/Monday of the potential storm system that we might get.

BEASTERLY

Various 12z models' output for 144 hours, spot the odd one out? :cool:

ECM

GEM

UKMO

GFS

NOGAPS

JMA

BOM

CMA

Bejubby

Goes to show you can't be 100% with model prediction ,and if everyone understood that there wouldn't be as many let downs etc.

I learned the hard way unfortunatly.

Redsunset

A word from chief forecaster on Friday Uk snow. Just thought I'd stick it in here. All this is great news for us down the road.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEJXZZWdAo8

pistolpetes11

Redsunset wrote: »

A word from chief forecaster on Friday Uk snow. Just thought I'd stick it in here. All this is great news for us down the road.

Ive been saying it all day , we really want a cold pool to build up there over there .

whiteandlight

Can I ask here if anyone would be willing to give some assessment of the current models from 24-72 hours? The ramping thread has analysis but for obvious reasons its a tad biased! I'm a snow addict but I'd love a realistic assessment particularly with met eireann not even mentioning snow in this evenings forecasts

Redsunset

This is an extremely delicate development. It's evolution will need to be perfectly positioned and so hence the uncertainty by all. Met included. Stayed tuned. Marvellous potential currently modeled.

whiteandlight

By marvellous potential are we really talking as bad as 2010 or is that hope casting? I'm sorry I'm still not good at reading the charts and though I know the snow charts have proven to be unreliable although I can read them!

Redsunset

I'm talking about the potential of the evolving situation setting up just right and being the right side of marginal for once this winter to deliver a good dose of snow short term.

Long term and this could just be the beginning.

BEASTERLY

Ensemble mean for t78. Nice.

Storm 10

Thanks beasterly for posting the charts could be interesting on Sunday

aboyro

interesting to see a massive storm off the alaskan coast. wonder what effect it might have on the winter here and the SSW???


http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/monster-storm-lashing-outer-reaches-of-alaska-15470

Calibos

aboyro wrote: »

interesting to see a massive storm off the alaskan coast. wonder what effect it might have on the winter here and the SSW???


http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/monster-storm-lashing-outer-reaches-of-alaska-15470

Dunno about here but it's sure going to have an effect on the Deadliest Catch boys!

Fully Established

TAF
EIDW 171948Z 1719/1818 13022G33KT 8000 -DZ BKN004 BKN010 BECMG 1720/1722 4000 TEMPO 1722/1815 RA RASN BECMG 1810/1812 27010KT 9999 BKN010 BECMG 1812/1815 BKN020

Cantonesque

Very few chart interpretations getting posted in the last couple of hours... Things must be starting to go pear rain shaped :mad:

pistolpetes11

Cantonesque wrote: »

Very few chart interpretations getting posted in the last couple of hours... Things must be starting to go pear rain shaped :mad:

Everyone is using the event thread

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857522

Daniel2590

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Everyone is using the event thread

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857522

Should a separate thread be opened for model discussion as opposed to having to trawl though pages of chat to find any charts?

Darwin

I note that a lot of the interesting discussion of recent days has been swamped by mostly drivel in the other threads here. One of the downsides of having interesting weather I guess.

leahyl

Darwin wrote: »

I note that a lot of the interesting discussion of recent days has been swamped by mostly drivel in the other threads here. One of the downsides of having interesting weather I guess.

I have noticed this - I thought all the chat and light hearted banter was for the ramp thread but everyone seems to have jumped ship to the event thread so I've been doing the same!

pistolpetes11

SFC LOW PSBLY DEVELOPING OFF THE E COAST MON...

PREFERENCE: NAM/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF
LOW PRES THAT MAY EVOLVE OVER THE WRN ATLC BY F84 LATE MON. AT
THAT TIME... IN SPITE OF UPSTREAM ISSUES THE NAM FALLS CLOSER TO
THE MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD THAN THE GFS ON BOTH COUNTS. THE GFS IS
IN THE WEAKER/FASTER PORTION OF THE ENVELOPE ALONG WITH THE UKMET.
THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN AND NEARLY IDENTICAL 12Z ECMWF SHOW
DEPTH SIMILAR TO THE NAM WITH SLOWER TIMING. THE 00Z CMC WAS A
DEEP EXTREME WITH TIMING CLOSE TO THE ECMWF... WHILE THE 12Z CMC
RUN HAS ADJUSTED WEAKER TO THE ECMWF DEPTH WITH TIMING SIMILAR TO
OR A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. AS PER ITS OCCASIONAL BIAS THE
12Z CMC IS STILL MORE AMPLIFIED ALOFT THAN OTHER SOLNS BY F84 LATE
MON. THE FAIRLY BROAD NATURE OF THE TROF ALOFT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
SUPPORT A SFC LOW MUCH DEEPER THAN THE 00Z-12Z ECMWF/12Z CMC BUT
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST 2-3 DAYS HAS SHOWN POTENTIAL FOR AN
EVOLUTION DEEPER/SLOWER THAN THE GFS/UKMET. ALSO THE 12Z GEFS
MEAN SHOWS SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC PRESSURES ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST
THAN THE GFS AT F84. A NAM/ECMWF COMPROMISE BEST REPRESENTS
CURRENT PREFS AT THE SFC AND TONES DOWN THE NAM ALOFT AS IT SHOWS
SLIGHTLY MORE HGT FALLS ALOFT THAN OTHER NON-CMC SOLNS BY THE END
OF THE FCST.