Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Courtesy Flush

What are the latest charts saying for Monday in regard to temp/snowfall in the east ?

finnharpsboy

Courtesy Flush wrote: »

What are the latest charts saying for Monday in regard to temp/snowfall in the east ?

from my little knowledge and understanding id say thats it for a few weeks at least

rickdangerouss

Courtesy Flush wrote: »

What are the latest charts saying for Monday in regard to temp/snowfall in the east ?

Depends where in the east, I do not think it will be allot and I would be happy with 1cm at this stage.

Maybe things will get better when another ramp happens with the 0z chats??

davidsr20

Courtesy Flush wrote: »

What are the latest charts saying for Monday in regard to temp/snowfall in the east ?

Monday was always a south set up!

maquiladora

Courtesy Flush wrote: »

What are the latest charts saying for Monday in regard to temp/snowfall in the east ?

Some snow (maybe light amounts) possible pushing in over the northeast from Irish Sea on Monday.

Courtesy Flush

Did anyone see the programme on BBC earlier about the big freeze in 1963? , was very interesting with their old charts and set-ups

snowstorm445

GFS is showing some potential for sleet/snow on Tuesday night much further up the country (although a slight increase in temperatures by as the night goes on to just above freezing):

(http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=54&mode=0)

Villain

Hirlam model has front stalling Sunday over southern counties before dying out, select t Nedbor http://www.dmi.dk/dmi/index/danmark/vejrkort.htm

pistolpetes11

UKMO after heavily modifying there Fax output at 120

cherryghost

ECM follows the breakdown at 144



-6 uppers up until 120 when possible sleet and snow moves across the country followed by rain.

Elmer Blooker

I don't think this breakdown is absolutely certain for next weekend. The models suggest that this will happen but ME are saying still the possibility of snow and UKMO saying some areas remaining cold. so nothing is set in stone yet. IMO this is a case of human input into forecasts are not complete dependence on the models as professional forecasters know that a cold block can be difficult to shift and the models are always keen to have the Atlantic barging in. A post on NW this morning shows ECM and GFS charts from last weekend for today - both show mild SW'ly airflow.

Bejubby

Is there any way of getting the charts on meteociel to work like an animation?
Or any other charts on other sites?

rickdangerouss

Bejubby wrote: »

Is there any way of getting the charts on meteociel to work like an animation?
Or any other charts on other sites?

Click on Anim and that should work.

Daniel2590

Bejubby wrote: »

Is there any way of getting the charts on meteociel to work like an animation?
Or any other charts on other sites?

Under "Précharger" click < Anim > and it'll run though the ones on that page

Spindle

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I don't think this breakdown is absolutely certain for next weekend. The models suggest that this will happen but ME are saying still the possibility of snow and UKMO saying some areas remaining cold. so nothing is set in stone yet. IMO this is a case of human input into forecasts are not complete dependence on the models as professional forecasters know that a cold block can be difficult to shift and the models are always keen to have the Atlantic barging in. A post on NW this morning shows ECM and GFS charts from last weekend for today - both show mild SW'ly airflow.

Would having snowcover in place delay the breakdown at all?? As a cold ground should have some feedback into the atmosphere?

Elmer Blooker

that high pressure to the ne (quite weak unfortunately) will give very low temperatures in the UK and the continent, hopefully it will very difficult for the Atlantic to shift this cold pool. What I think will happen is the milder air will get no further than eastern England and the cold will return west again. Even in the coldest winters there will always be milder Atlantic interludes as we are so far west. I'm optimistic that we'll see good blocking in Feb - time will tell.

gabeeg

Any thoughts on the 12z GFS?

Did I say that right?

Dead_Rabbits

Pheonix from the Flames

Scandi High refuses to DIE

Elmer Blooker

Dead_Rabbits wrote: »

Pheonix from the Flames

Scandi High refuses to DIE

Yes, so I've noticed and the link up with the Arctic high looks promising.
I'm convinced that we have to look east (and not Greenland) for a route to cold for the simple reason that we have already seen blocking to the NE this winter and that pattern should continue. We'll live in hope that this trend continues.

snowstorm445

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Yes, so I've noticed and the link up with the Arctic high looks promising.
I'm convinced that we have to look east (and not Greenland) for a route to cold for the simple reason that we have already seen blocking to the NE this winter and that pattern should continue. We'll live in hope that this trend continues.

Historically I think Scandinavia Highs tend to be more common later in winter then Greenland Highs. Certainly if we're all to get a good taste of winter an easterly is the best solution.

Chucky Norris

the 12z gfs doesn't look good at all after friday even out in FI:(:(

Daniel2590

Chucky Norris wrote: »

the 18z gfs doesn't look good at all after friday even out in FI:(:(

Considering that FI is about +48 at the moment I wouldn't be too worried about what's on the charts for Friday.

snaps

Chucky Norris wrote: »

the 15z gfs doesn't look good at all after friday even out in FI:(:(

Its the 12z which comes out around 15.00

Musicman2000

Very well explained forecast from Tomasz Schafernaker today for the week ahead.

Mr Cumulonimbus

12Z ECM, GFS and UKMO in agreement for mildish southwesterlies at +120.

Harps

Still another few days of this grey, stagnant nothingness ahead before a brief return to mild SW'erlies, its been consistently pushed back all week though so hard to know what'll happen yet. ECMWF is hinting at some active weather next week but no doubt it'll be watered down again to more of the same

Darwin

Glacier Point on netweather has posted an update on global synoptic trends and in a nutshell is suggesting a reload of the cold from the NE or E possibly as early as 28th Jan into early February (which ties in with MTs thinking).

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-model-discussion-analysis-and-summaries/page__st__2060

I think I got most of the explanation.....




....in the first paragraph

Weathering

Cold from the east needs to roar across,all this stagnation leads to what we've had over the last week= mundane crap
Give me a Northerly anyday over an Easterly
I'd rather it raining than the crap I've had this past week. There hasn't even been a frost since last Wednesday
It's pathetic

Mr Cumulonimbus

18Z GFS still going for a mild Atlantic incursion next weekend.

Elmer Blooker

Whats this? it doesn't look like the Atlantic will smash through according to this chart?