Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Weathering

That probably will 6 hours later
I hope it does tbh,not exactly a cold spell for us
Let the greenland high build then I'm interested

Elmer Blooker

I think its a brilliant chart, I don't the Atlantic will break through that easily and I still think that blocking will continue to the NE.

Harps

In what sense is it a brilliant chart? It just shows a cool, slack southerly flow with another weak front along the west coast and nothing happening over the country. The current setup has led to several days of calm, grey and totally uneventful weather without the slightest hint of anything active for 95% of the country. Why would we want it to continue?

cherryghost

All the charts are in agreement of an Atlantic break through as soon as +72hrs. Nothing indicating a cold pushback in the long term either, for now.

Problem123456

The NAE issued on saturday wasn't too far off!

lucernarian

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I think its a brilliant chart, I don't the Atlantic will break through that easily and I still think that blocking will continue to the NE.

That's madness, sure on that FAX chart the 528dam broken line is literally hundreds of miles in the Netherlands! The 528 line behind the Atlantic front ramping into town is nearly as close...

Elmer Blooker

we'll see what happens beyond +120
I'm actually looking at the bigger picture and not what it means for our little windswept, dull and dreary island out in the Atlantic.

Dead_Rabbits

The breakdown is well on the way for the weekend with all models showing a different variation of the theme. This is a vital part of the process for a proper cold spell to develop into Feb. I don't think we will have the raging Atlantic the models are showing but it will leave us with a temp close to norm for a few days.

Lets hope the process is quick and the models begin to show heights rising around Greenland this time, if not then I'm afraid it will be adios Winter 2013!

On A IMBY note here in Dundalk we had -8 uppers, neg Dew Points at night and plenty of percip BUT NO DECENT SNOW. For us on the coast I think we need a proper cold to set in to freeze the surface air so any falling precip will actually reach the ground.

lucernarian

Negative dewpoints mean what falls will be as snow. It doesn't mean it will stick around unfortunately, and a slack breeze with such a long sea fetch was going to be inevitably modified and warmed slightly closer to sea level.

Also, I thought 850 hPa upper temps were widely -6 to -7 at the moment in northern Leinster and Dublin?

Edit: see here http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/20/basis18/ukuk/t850/13012100_2018.gif
The coldest chart I found for last night

Elmer Blooker

this cold spell (but not as cold as we would like it to be) will be over for us but I'm looking east and not west and I don't think this block is going to disappear that quickly. No point looking beyond +120
*no GFS chart seems to be complete these days without the obligatory North Atlantic hurricane.

Spindle

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

this cold spell (but not as cold as we would like it to be) will be over for us but I'm looking east and not west and I don't think this block is going to disappear that quickly. No point looking beyond +120
*no GFS chart seems to be complete these days without the obligatory North Atlantic hurricane.

Now there is something you don't see everyday the GFS handling an Atlantic low really badly :rolleyes:

Rebelbrowser

Not sure where to post this...

Just to simply observe that the NAE handled last nights "event" in the SW absolutely perfectly as far as I can see (and I scrutinised hard, believe me!). Worth noting given the amount of model malfunctions there have been so far this year.

Redsunset

A feature to watch tonight has a low swings up from the South into the Midlands. potential for a few cms all going well.

DanRu

I don't really see this breakdown amounting to much other than a few less cooler days across the end of the week/ start of next week. The models have continually pushed back the breakdown date and I believe we are heading for the freezer.

pistolpetes11

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Not sure where to post this...

Just to simply observe that the NAE handled last nights "event" in the SW absolutely perfectly as far as I can see (and I scrutinised hard, believe me!). Worth noting given the amount of model malfunctions there have been so far this year.

The NAE would appear to me the form horse out to +48 hours as its of a higher resolution ,

I always keep an eye on it within this time frame and its always there or there about's

Harps

Wouldn't like to be relying on models for crossing the Atlantic this week, no agreement whatsoever on developments south of Greenland

GFS throws up one of its extreme hurricane force storms while ECMWF has a standard 970hPa low. Doesn't seem to effect our outcome much either way though so looks like we might be headed for a windy spell, hopefully a storm might pup up through the week

Redsunset

Looking at the 06z NAE for guidance we see this small feature. I'm more interested now in what the 12z NAE does with it. Will it be gone?

Hope not, it's as green as a snooker table around here.

Rougies

Lol, I just spent ages making a gif for the NAE and you go and post the charts before me! Well here it is anyway

Rougies

While I'm at it, here's the UKMO. It doesn't want to go down the NAE route at all.

patneve2

Yeah, just realized now that the NAE has a feature for late tonight/tomorrow morning. Expect rain on the coast and possible snow in land

Redsunset

12z NAE and it's gone. Above Uk model has it nailed it seems.

munsterlegend

Is it gone for all of us?

munsterlegend

Looks a heavy enough blob of precipitation off the south west coast wherever its heading:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

Rougies

GFS following the NAE and UK for that precip to skirt the southwest coast and head SE

Villain

Yep High Res NMM has nothing outside of Ulster tonight. So cold and Dry before the Atlantic brings awful muck at the weekend!

munsterlegend

Villain wrote: »

Yep High Res NMM has nothing outside of Ulster tonight. So cold and Dry before the Atlantic brings awful muck at the weekend!

Met Eireann going off a different model in latest update!

Rougies

Hmmm, the 18z NAE has the precip and snow much more extensive over the northern half of the country at midnight

Weathering

This snow has really come out of nowhere in donegal,I was expecting an isolated shower at most
What changed? I wonder will it continue for much longer

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Rougies wrote: »

Hmmm, the 18z NAE has the precip and snow much more extensive over the northern half of the country at midnight

This is very interesting !

No sign of from where on the radar though

Rougies

t|nt|n wrote: »

This is very interesting !

No sign of from where on the radar though

Yeah, I have my doubts to say the least, it's all too light to matter for most anyway.