Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Dead_Rabbits

ECM has in FI jumped on the cold wagon in a big way.

Deank

Dead_Rabbits wrote: »

ECM has in FI jumped on the cold wagon in a big way.

The ramping thread will be bursting at the seams come mid next week if the models still support this.....;)

Dead_Rabbits

Deank wrote: »

The ramping thread will be bursting at the seams come mid next week if the models still support this.....;)

GIFS AT THE READY!!!!!!

If the models output verifies than it will be GAME ON for MT and Co's forecasts for Feb.

Dead_Rabbits

At last signs of the NAO taking a dip and one outlier actually tanking.



And in the first week of Feb a tanking AO



All the pieces are coming together nicely, of course all in FI but no denying something is brewing in Feb in favour of cold going against all the calls of a zonal month!

bb1234567

Ooh Im already excited tbh

Weathering

Up she goes http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130126/18/264/h500slp.png

DanRu

I've had a good rest since the last roller coaster , come midweek I hope to board the MT Express.

Dead_Rabbits

DanRu wrote: »

I've had a good rest since the last roller coaster , come midweek I hope to board the MT Express.

I'm already excited!

wing52

If the canadian part of the polar vortex passes towards europe

would it pull a blocking high up after it towards greenland?:eek:

Not the real Gerald Fleming

wing52 wrote: »

If the canadian part of the polar vortex passes towards europe

would it pull a blocking high up after it towards greenland?:eek:

The week ahead looks to be quite changeable. I think the forecasts are for it to stay over canada presently. Better asks those who are more ofay with that type of thing.

Speak Now

Gerald Fleming wrote: »

The week ahead looks to be quite changeable. I think the forecasts are for it to stay over canada presently. Better asks those who are more ofay with that type of thing.

People like Gerald Fleming prehaps?

Elmer Blooker

a very promising 12z seems to be going unnoticed? Perhaps everyone is distracted by the storm. The ME farming forecast for the week ahead wasn't a forecast for the week ahead it only went as far as Friday so nothing certain yet. This chart below or something similar keeps popping up
Pressure building NE? I still think our best bet is to the NE and not Greenland in Feb.

Not the real Gerald Fleming

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

People like Gerald Fleming prehaps?

Maybe;)

Elmer Blooker

not a bad chart for the first day of the last month of winter.
Perhaps we might get Greenland high pressure building with that WAA?
One way or another theres lots of potential for northern blocking in this chart.

Weathering

Dare I say
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmae_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0&carte=0

This will do too
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

whitebriar

Weathering wrote: »

Dare I say

Some nice fodder,almost in view of the reliable alright for northern,northwestern and later eastern areas,across most models now including the Ecm.
It's not outside the realms of possibility to evolve similar to november/Dec 10..(Northwest /north but artic origin air fast delivery/less than usual modification ,giving Ulster/N Connaught a pasting,veering northeast delivering same to the east..and then a reload whilst our own native cold pool deepens..) ...just sayin like..

I'm removing all copyright from this post so it can be quoted for truth over on the ramping thread

Fluffycloud

MT mentioned the s ....... Word!!!!fingers and toes crossed.

DOCARCH

ECM this morning looks interesting for Saturday with low pressure centre just off our south coast heading into northern France. We are on the 'cold' side of the system.

dopolahpec

The models certainly look more interesting this morning, apart from the big vortex bouncer blocking the door to the northwest. I think the pattern is for brief cold incursions for the time being. I would not bet on major cold until valentines day at least (getting late in winter, whatever way you look at it).

dopolahpec

DOCARCH wrote: »

ECM this morning looks interesting for Saturday with low pressure centre just off our south coast heading into northern France. We are on the 'cold' side of the system.

Do you think that system will dump a lot of precipitation?

DOCARCH

dopolahpec wrote: »

Do you think that system will dump a lot of precipitation?

Looks pretty wet for the east and south coast. Could be a rain/sleet event for low levels and snow event for higher ground.

One to watch!

whitebriar

dopolahpec wrote: »

Do you think that system will dump a lot of precipitation?

As Docarch alluded to,not enough cold to tap into for snow methinks below a 1000ft asl or so.
But still,that's a snowline 4000ft lower than if the system moved directly over us.
The synoptics are nice,its just that they're not there long enough to drag in cold enough air at all altitudes to do the job.
You need probably a minimum of 72hrs sustained from the cold source to do that with the magic air usually driven down behind a front from that wind direction.
This system is not doing that,it's just traveling south east,engaging some colder air(but not real cold) to the north of it,pulling that down in its journey instead of injecting warmer air as it normally should by going further north.

Baby steps,lets see what happens further down the line?

For proper cold versus our recent unsustainable dud spell ,Ireland needs the atlantic blocked for at least a while to attract in polar northeasterlies or easterlies or northerlies so as you get lots of option,streamer events and battleground southerly tracking lows that do get to engage true cold air already in situ or in nearby Britain(in an E or Ne flow) to create a snowfest,lets see what nature pans out for us,its her decision,not the models?

DOCARCH

+1 to what WB has said above. Not much or really enough cold to drag into the back of the system.

But, these setups always offer a little excitment (especially on here ). Real nowcast situations with some getting rain, others getting sleet and others getting snow.

Still 4 days away so would not be giving is too much attention now, just good to watch and see if the models keep the system to our south.

dopolahpec

DOCARCH wrote: »

+1 to what WB has said above. Not much or really enough cold to drag into the back of the system.

But, these setups always offer a little excitment (especially on here ). Real nowcast situations with some getting rain, others getting sleet and others getting snow.

Still 4 days away so would not be giving is too much attention now, just good to watch and see if the models keep the system to our south.

Thanks lads, wasn't really thinking about the snow potential, more worried about slow moving heavy rain. The place is soaked enough.

snowstreams

DOCARCH wrote: »

ECM this morning looks interesting for Saturday with low pressure centre just off our south coast heading into northern France. We are on the 'cold' side of the system.

Well that low would give the wicklow mountains a nice dumping to reverse all the snowmelt that has been going on.

icesnowfrost

Fluffycloud wrote: »

MT mentioned the s ....... Word!!!!fingers and toes crossed.

Do u have a link to wat he said

red_bairn

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Do u have a link to wat he said

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Turning much colder in stages, details not too clear yet, probably some snow risk eventually.

Source: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=82935758&postcount=2785

dopolahpec

snowstreams wrote: »

Well that low would give the wicklow mountains a nice dumping to reverse all the snowmelt that has been going on.

Looking at the low as progged it could lead to structurally damaging wind and flood risk. I could do without that. Even if it meant a dump of snow being sacrificed for the mountains. Disclaimer: I have a genuine dislike of storms/flooding which I know is a bit against the weather forum grain.

DOCARCH

06z GFS has the system more north than the ECM = more rain and less chance of snow. Maybe a little back edge sleet/wet snow for some.

Mr Bumble

ehem!!!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013012912/gfs-1-150.png?12