Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Rougies

Mr Bumble wrote: »

ehem!!!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013012912/gfs-1-150.png?12

Rain, sleet and wet snow. No thanks

Mr Bumble

Rougies wrote: »

Rain, sleet and wet snow. No thanks

apologies for the brief wander into FI....merely a way station on the road to whiteness....an awful lot of cold air around the place and coming from both directions....

Graupel

ECM is fantastic at +216 incase nobody had noticed, Definite trend developing for the 5th-8th Feb. This is exactly what we want to see happening.

derekon

See attached link which is Matt Hugo's views on what will occur in February 2013.

http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2013/01/29/february-2013-whats-in-store/

Not very exciting from a snow lover's point of view - he is going for north westerly winds to be dominant during February with the jet stream to flow north of Scotland , yes north of Scotland !!

This is at odds with MT who is of the view that the jet stream will sink south. What to believe? :rolleyes:

D

esposito

derekon wrote: »

See attached link which is Matt Hugo's views on what will occur in February 2013.

http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2013/01/29/february-2013-whats-in-store/

Not very exciting from a snow lover's point of view - he is going for north westerly winds to be dominant during February with the jet stream to flow north of Scotland , yes north of Scotland !!

This is at odds with MT who is of the view that the jet stream will sink south. What to believe? :rolleyes:

D

I hope MT is right but I think he will be wrong. Just a hunch though

whitebriar

Ah I wouldn't worry about Matt Hugo and the Ec 32,he and they are wrong as often as they are right in the last year.
Past 5 days,he's no better or worse than any of us really.

mike65

Azores High looks like taking control to me, it'll push that nasty blue stuff east.

jimmy.d

mike65 wrote: »

Azores High looks like taking control to me, it'll push that nasty blue stuff east.

And push the white stuff west

downwiththatsor

whitebriar wrote: »

Ah I wouldn't worry about Matt Hugo and the Ec 32,he and they are wrong as often as they are right in the last year.
Past 5 days,he's no better or worse than any of us really.

Simon Keeling (weatherweb.tv) seems to favour a cooler outlook on his update today, all to play for no doubt.

Mr Bumble

derekon wrote: »

See attached link which is Matt Hugo's views on what will occur in February 2013.

http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2013/01/29/february-2013-whats-in-store/

Not very exciting from a snow lover's point of view - he is going for north westerly winds to be dominant during February with the jet stream to flow north of Scotland , yes north of Scotland !!

This is at odds with MT who is of the view that the jet stream will sink south. What to believe? :rolleyes:

D

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-3-150.png?12

DOCARCH

Wintry forecast from ME this morning for Friday:

...outbreaks of rain will develop in many parts of Munster and south Leinster by Friday morning, perhaps preceded by sleet on high ground. During Friday, the rain will extend to the rest of Leinster and to much of Connaught also, although Ulster will stay mainly dry. Rainfall accumulations in southern, and perhaps also eastern, counties may result in flooding. The rain will clear away early on Friday night as strong, northerly winds set in. However, rain may turn to extensive sleet and snow for a time in the east and south, leading to deposits of snow on high ground and perhaps at lower levels also.

Based on yesterday evenings ECM (obviously).

Not sure if latest ECM run (or GFS for that matter) would support this forecast?

Reckless Abandonment

Good to hear the word snow and sleet in their forecast , this winter is not done yet

dopolahpec

An extraordinarily bullish forecast for likely severe cold from MT this morning. He has really stuck his neck out and called something that I'm not seeing being called elsewhere. Very interesting. The GEM would be the only model screaming cold snap as far as I can see.

Will we see the cold???

200motels

dopolahpec wrote: »

An extraordinarily bullish forecast for likely severe cold from MT this morning. He has really stuck his neck out and called something that I'm not seeing being called elsewhere. Very interesting. The GEM would be the only model screaming cold snap as far as I can see.

Will we see the cold???

Yes just seen MT's forecast and he's been saying it for a while so I wouldn't doubt him.

dopolahpec

200motels wrote: »

Yes just seen MT's forecast and he's been saying it for a while so I wouldn't doubt him.

I know he has been saying it for a while. I don't doubt it is a genuine forecast. But it is just that, a forecast. So while I don't doubt that it is a forecast, MT's forecast, surely I am allowed to discuss it's likelihood. Or do you believe that the forecast itself shouldn't be doubted, that it will be just as things transpire?

Larbre34

UK Met not even remotely on the same page as MT as regards UK forecast up to 8th Feb, theyre still calling mild and damp with frosty interludes. Its an interesting divergence because they flagged the recent UK cold spell with good advance notice, but who knows, they could change at any time.

A 70% probability for severe wintry weather for an extended period is a huge call from MT, but as has been mentioned, he's been flagging it for months.

I am particularly looking forward to this weekends Farming Forecast and Countryfile weather slot!

Deank

dopolahpec wrote: »

I know he has been saying it for a while. I don't doubt it is a genuine forecast. But it is just that, a forecast. So while I don't doubt that it is a forecast, MT's forecast, surely I am allowed to discuss it's likelihood. Or do you believe that the forecast itself shouldn't be doubted, that it will be just as things transpire?

I think it's more a case of folks hope-casting that the tentative forecast MT has given will come to fruition, his forecasts for this year have been relatively accurate given the fact that none of the models agreed on anything and an accurate forecast couldn't be given past 24 hours.

dopolahpec

Deank wrote: »

I think it's more a case of folks hope-casting that the tentative forecast MT has given will come to fruition, his forecasts for this year have been relatively accurate given the fact that none of the models agreed on anything and an accurate forecast couldn't be given past 24 hours.

Yes, I believe his forecast has been the best LRF I have seen this winter. But blind faith in it will lead to disappointment for some, and unwarranted criticism for MT if it doesn't transpire. I think he is on to something btw. Major pattern change in the models for sure. Wouldn't take much for a sudden downwell of bitter cold from the north/north east.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Yeeehawwwww

Deank

t|nt|n wrote: »

Yeeehawwwww

Long way out but that would put us nicely in the freezer

ninebeanrows

I think MT may be a bit premature, thinking more 12/15th onwards per GFS 6z

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think MT may be a bit premature, thinking more 12/15th onwards per GFS 6z

All we need now is for it to move to T0 with no problems

delw

t|nt|n wrote: »

All we need now is for it to move to T0 with no problems

Yeah only 66 more GFS runs to go,almost there

Deank

delw wrote: »

Yeah only 66 more GFS runs to go,almost there

The countdown is on so...

Problem123456

Bring it on

DOCARCH

Deank wrote: »

Long way out but that would put us nicely in the freezer

Really need to see -12c uppers over us for entering the freezer!

-4c to -8c uppers, in reality, is wishy washy.

Deank

Problem123456 wrote: »

Bring it on

It's going to be a bit like this.

200motels

dopolahpec wrote: »

I know he has been saying it for a while. I don't doubt it is a genuine forecast. But it is just that, a forecast. So while I don't doubt that it is a forecast, MT's forecast, surely I am allowed to discuss it's likelihood. Or do you believe that the forecast itself shouldn't be doubted, that it will be just as things transpire?

I think you got the wrong end of the stick, I know it's a forecast but MT is right more than he's wrong, and of course your allowed to discuss a different scenario that's what's makes the weather boards such interesting reading, all the different views on various models is fascinating.

Larbre34

As the last cold outbreak showed, and will again next week, even the margins have margins. My feeling is a cold reload will leave us on the edge again, probably just mountain snows, the jetstream would want to take a serious dive for serious cold origin air to establish - out to 10 days from now at least

DEFCON F.I. is firmly back at +120hrs

Mr Bumble

Deank wrote: »

I think it's more a case of folks hope-casting that the tentative forecast MT has given will come to fruition, his forecasts for this year have been relatively accurate given the fact that none of the models agreed on anything and an accurate forecast couldn't be given past 24 hours.

Have to say Dean..70% certainty is a bit more than tentative. His restraint and the use of tentative referred to the first three days of February and the possibility that his projected cold spell will come at us faster than he expected.....and given ME's forecast for snow potential down to low levels towards the end of the week, I'd say it's all moving along very nicely