Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Deank

Mr Bumble wrote: »

Have to say Dean..70% certainty is a bit more than tentative. His restraint and the use of tentative referred to the first three days of February and the possibility that his projected cold spell will come at us faster than he expected.....and given ME's forecast for snow potential down to low levels towards the end of the week, I'd say it's all moving along very nicely

Sorry meant to clarify the tentative part, it was very much directed towards MT's forecast for this weekend, not his longer range prediction of us being in the freezer from the 5th to the 15th (and possibly longer)

Graupel

ECM continued the trend this morning for heights building over greenland around the 6th-9th Feb. Good signs.

bb1234567

200motels wrote: »

Yes just seen MT's forecast and he's been saying it for a while so I wouldn't doubt him.

I doubt him tbh. We were meant to get a severe January cold snap last year but that never arrived Nothing even close. It was very mild in fact.

DOCARCH

bb1234567 wrote: »

Nothing even close.....

About 100 miles. That's how close it came! Most of the UK was in the deep freeze.

lucernarian

Mr Bumble wrote: »

Have to say Dean..70% certainty is a bit more than tentative. His restraint and the use of tentative referred to the first three days of February and the possibility that his projected cold spell will come at us faster than he expected.....and given ME's forecast for snow potential down to low levels towards the end of the week, I'd say it's all moving along very nicely

All those different statements and opinions above taken from MT Cranium revolve around the one idea, that is towards the middle of February there could be a particularly cold spell. I think saying there's a significant chance (i.e. 70%) is too specific. We cannot forget that cold, blocked synoptics can exist in this part of the world while Ireland remains dry or slightly on the warm side of marginal. The third week of December 2010 was a good example, where the polar vortex itself (pretty much) spectacularly descended upon Ireland but only more coastal fringes were hit by the bands of snow. Organised bands of predominantly snow fell harmlessly into the seas surrounding Ireland on some days. It was astonishing how we avoided the crippling amounts of snow one would expect nationally upon such a dramatic and rare event happening. It was bad indeed, e.g. for travelers going to Dublin Airport the week before Christmas but it would have been far worse if that LP had moved even 60 km east or west.

There may be a good chance of a colder trend emerging but the finer details will be vital, and they won't be accurately predicted until much much closer to the time. Like what we'd see with the Isle of Man shadow along the east coast or whether showers off the coast of Cork will actually creep towards the city or not etc.

Gonzo

unfortunately thats how it works nearly every time, its amazing how the freezer can easily spread all the way from Moscow across to Cardiff/Liverpool and once it gets to teh welsh Irish sea coast it just gets cold feet and stays there.

DOCARCH

Gonzo wrote: »

unfortunately thats how it works nearly every time, its amazing how the freezer can easily spread all the way from Moscow across to Cardiff/Liverpool and once it gets to teh welsh Irish sea coast it just gets cold feet and stays there.

Pretty much like the Romans!

Villain

12z downgrades the weekend, noting really of interest, then Tuesday/Wednesday has a very brief cold snap with a few hours of sleet and snow before the Atlantic swings in

Weathering

Villain wrote: »

12z downgrades the weekend, noting really of interest, then Tuesday/Wednesday has a very brief cold snap with a few hours of sleet and snow before the Atlantic swings in

Defeatist much? T276 has a greenie building http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=276&mode=0

The weekend never promised much if anything at all so don't get your sadness

Elmer Blooker

Gonzo wrote: »

unfortunately thats how it works nearly every time, its amazing how the freezer can easily spread all the way from Moscow across to Cardiff/Liverpool and once it gets to teh welsh Irish sea coast it just gets cold feet and stays there.

Yes, we usually fall short, we need that bit extra here like a deep area of low pressure over France or the Biscay area to drag the cold westwards or an anticyclone from Scandinavia to Greenland (not asking for much am I?)

UKMO/ GFS/ ECM all basically identical at +144, next week won't be mild with hill snow in the west and north I'd say. Lets hope that high doesn't sink south in FI land.

Weathering

Elmer there would be snow at low levels in the north on tue/wed if that chart verifies,it's not only a hill event

Villain

Weathering wrote: »

Defeatist much? T276 has a greenie building http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=276&mode=0

The weekend never promised much if anything at all so don't get your sadness

Ha not sure where you got the sadness from, just stating how things look.

As for T276? :eek: I don't scroll that far on the charts, it's like drinking in a lap dancing club!! Very really going to happen

Mr Benevolent

Gonzo wrote: »

unfortunately thats how it works nearly every time, its amazing how the freezer can easily spread all the way from Moscow across to Cardiff/Liverpool and once it gets to teh welsh Irish sea coast it just gets cold warm feet and stays there.

FYP

Nabber

MTs forecasts are based on his research. Still an on going thing no doubt. I don't think any person or machine has cracked long range forecasting.

I'll stick to the 96hrs time frame (as sketchy as that can be too) I hope MTs and others research lead us to reliable predictions in the future.

I'm ready for snow anyways, just bought new socks...

United road

DOCARCH wrote: »

About 100 miles. That's how close it came! Most of the UK was in the deep freeze.

But MT did not forecast that it would be 100 miles or so to our east! He mentioned Ireland, not 100 miles east of ireland !! he git wrong and so BBs point is very fair.
Let me be clear. I hope MT is right this time and i certainly will not bash him, he clearly is superbly talented at what he is doing, but he is more capable of being wrong then he is of being right when it comes to snow in ireland (like all forecasters) hench the doubt as evidenced last jan

Daniel2590

United road wrote: »

But MT did not forecast that it would be 100 miles or so to our east! He mentioned Ireland, not 100 miles east of ireland !! he git wrong and so BBs point is very fair.
Let me be clear. I hope MT is right this time and i certainly will not bash him, he clearly is superbly talented at what he is doing, but he is more capable of being wrong then he is of being right when it comes to snow in ireland (like all forecasters) hench the doubt as evidenced last jan

I've said this before and I'll say it again. MT's forecast was made months prior to that episode. For him to even be right about extreme cold weather being so close to us in the first place is incredible. Compare his LRFs to any other (i.e. James Madden) and you'll see just how good he is.

I'm sick of seeing people bash the likes of MT because he was a 100 miles off in a forecast made months ago.

United road

I am not bashing MT and in fact went to the trouble of saying such!

DOCARCH

United road wrote: »

I am not bashing MT and in fact went to the trouble of saying such!

I think MT himself would admit to be falible.

The surface area of the earth is 196,935,000 sq miles (there or there abouts) so pinpointing a weather system or the boundary between mild and cold is a very very difficult thing to do, especially further out (in terms of time).

100 miles out isn't so bad?

United road

Ok, very valid point. We move on....................

Smidge

Has there been models posted for this weekend?

Daniel2590

United road wrote: »

I am not bashing MT and in fact went to the trouble of saying such!

Yeah I just saw that sorry :P only skimmed the post first time, that'll teach me!

tomcosgrave

One of the reasons I trust MT so much is that he warns he may be incorrect, and he pulls himself up when he is wrong.
And even if he is wrong on the precise details, he still manages to come pretty close.

dopolahpec

MT maintains the forecast for imminent very cold weather this morning. Unfortunately I can't see it coming next week, unless as he says, the models pick up on the trends he can see at the weekend.

What I see are brief topplers. Though good potential for snow from NW early next week in places like mayo sligo donegal.

whitebriar

I think Mt's expectations at this time are reasonable though,based on the info we have and the way things could along with other options pan out.
Lets see what does happen.
The odds,going on that high are as mentioned above stacked in favour of wintry conditions in Ulster and North Connaught.

Place to be,if it happens,probably Letterkenny again.Nice town that too .

dopolahpec

Well now. Just as I speak it looks like an upgrade on the 6z with better atlantic ridge by middle of next week. Cold northerly

Weathering

Beat me to it doplahoec,encouraging

Reckless Abandonment

The 6z look better... but no one was trusting them during the last cold spell, so its hard to take them serious this time .... but the models are starting to look more and more wintery just as MT was predicting would happen ....

dopolahpec

A couple more upgrades like that even slight would really open up some cold. It looks a lot cleaner in the greenland area doesn't it?

patneve2

Yes looks good for some snow in the usual Donegal, Leitrim, Sligo, Mayo areas especially inland/higher ground (and other areas of North, West and Midlands). Would say that some stray showers will give some wet snow or flurries on the E. Coast similar to early December 2011. Charts have been getting better so we'll see if they get even better.

patneve2

Very nice 500 hPa temps for early next week, even more important than 850 hPa temps for snow in my opinion. Definitely some decent accumulations in NW and W if this chart came to be.