Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

whiteandlight

DanRu wrote: »

0z GFS seems to be moving towards the ECM output. It's all to play for now!

Any update on this?

dopolahpec

Musicmental85 wrote: »

Any update on this?

I've scanned through the 12z output. It is quite dissimilar to the ECM from middle of next week onwards. It doesn't show any real easterly solution for Ireland right out to 192 hours.

The ECM 00Z gave a downgrade for easterly cold and I wouldn't be shocked to see more of the same from the 12z.

All eyez on the ECM from 6pm then

Rebelbrowser

dopolahpec wrote: »

I've scanned through the 12z output. It is quite dissimilar to the ECM from middle of next week onwards. It doesn't show any real easterly solution for Ireland right out to 192 hours.

The ECM 00Z gave a downgrade for easterly cold and I wouldn't be shocked to see more of the same from the 12z.

All eyez on the ECM from 6pm then

In the short term there are some interresting straws in the wind even on the 12z GFS. I dont rate their precipitation forecasts but.... http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Mind you its rain in the next frame.....

dopolahpec

Big upgrade on GFS overnight for cold prospects

BLIZZARD7

ECM is excellent at +120hrs. Undercutter incoming and perfect height rises to our North East...Other models are starting to fall into line too...Things are starting to look really good again.

Patience is still required though as more runs needed.




Dan

dopolahpec

ECM at 168 delivers real cold from the east. 7 days out. But the GFS is getting there too. Maybe a mid february genuine cold spell?


Looks a bit transitory at the moment though. Northwesterlies back at the end of the run. Nothing too severe really

dopolahpec

Not a mention of the 6z from the GFS?

It looks very messy, no real cold evolution for Ireland, but every run is very different after 120 hours now, so will be interesting to see what the afternoon throws up. I get the feeling that things are getting muted with respect to a proper cold spell (including MTs rather cautious forecast today), is because of the limited cold feed showing in the easterlies, very far from a BEAST from the east so to speak.

Musicman2000

dopolahpec wrote: »

Not a mention of the 6z from the GFS?

It looks very messy, no real cold evolution for Ireland, but every run is very different after 120 hours now, so will be interesting to see what the afternoon throws up. I get the feeling that things are getting muted with respect to a proper cold spell (including MTs rather cautious forecast today), is because of the limited cold feed showing in the easterlies, very far from a BEAST from the east so to speak.

Hopefully it wont be a re run of last months cold spell. Ireland being to far west and the UK being pasted.

dopolahpec

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Hopefully it wont be a re run of last months cold spell. Ireland being to far west and the UK being pasted.

I don't think the UK can expect much from this either. As it stands.

Tindie

I was looking at mothely weather forecast on BBC Weather, that Easter could be cold and snowy for the most of the UK, (It still very far off at this stage) ,

This cold spell won''t be anything bigs like papers are making out to be today.

dopolahpec

Tindie wrote: »

I was looking at mothely weather forecast on BBC Weather, that Easter could be cold and snowy for the most of the UK, (It still very far off at this stage) ,

This cold spell won''t be anything bigs like papers are making out to be today.

If anything with these phantom cold spells I've noticed that the papers seem to run with the story after the cold synoptics have already begun to disappear from the models. ie in December 2012 FM104 and other stations and all the tabloids were actually using the phrase 'the beast from the east' about a few days of cold rain, well after the horse had bolted for cold on all of the models.

If I were a superstitious man I'd say there's no chance of cold now, simply because the sensationalist headlines have appeared.

People have weather fatigue, they are being fed horse-sh*t from all angles regarding 'big freezes' and 'sweltering heat waves' and all the rest.

I think the wind is going to surprise a few people more than anything tonight.

hotwhiskey

Please can we keep this thread to Model/Technical discussion only. Thank you.

Elmer Blooker

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

ECM is excellent at +120hrs. Undercutter incoming and perfect height rises to our North East...Other models are starting to fall into line too...Things are starting to look really good again.

Patience is still required though as more runs needed.




Dan

I'm pleasantly surprised with the 12z, I was expecting the worst!
No back down

TheMilkyPirate

Encouraging model output again today, ECM 00z was very good for a cold solution for Ireland. 12z isn't as bad as I thought it might be.

Haven't felt the need to post all winter but thought I'd chip in at this stage as I think were only entering the interesting part of winter now.

Speak Now

baraca wrote: »

Encouraging model output again today, ECM 6z was very good for a cold solution for Ireland. 12z isn't as bad as I thought it might be.

Haven't felt the need to post all winter but thought I'd chip in at this stage as I think were only entering the interesting part of winter now.

You tease, 06ECM ;-)

whitebriar

ye must be looking at a different ecm to me guys with all due respect..
120 has us in an atlantic sourced southwesterly and 144 has a low with warm uppers moving in from the atlantic northwest bringing rain,with the only place cold enough for snow and with a slack seepage inwards of continental air being England.
Beyond that is la la land.

Basically,tonights ecm has the pattern too far east.

Neddyusa

White straight line of cloud heading from tip of Greenland towards Brittany, France very quickly. To the south west of the wintery shower train. Is it a jet streak? And can it affect the weather below?

http://sat24.com/en/eu

Also, would I be right in saying that these can effect the formation of a PL?
Athough maybe uppers not cold enough for that??


Looks interesting on the satellite anyway- moving very fast!

derekon

Really says it all doesn't it?

Mr Bumble

whitebriar wrote: »

ye must be looking at a different ecm to me guys with all due respect..
120 has us in an atlantic sourced southwesterly and 144 has a low with warm uppers moving in from the atlantic northwest bringing rain,with the only place cold enough for snow and with a slack seepage inwards of continental air being England.
Beyond that is la la land.

Basically,tonights ecm has the pattern too far east.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013020500/gfs-1-138.png?0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013020500/ECM0-144.GIF

Has the above changed overnight??? Both of these give us excellent uppers @120h but novice chart reader so tell me if I'm wrong:)

Elmer Blooker

Mr Bumble wrote: »

Has the above changed overnight??? Both of these give us excellent uppers @120h but novice chart reader so tell me if I'm wrong:)

Personally I think whitebriar is being a bit pessimistic. We have blocking to our NE but as usual whether we can tap into it is another matter. We always run the risk of missing out as we watch the UK get a pasting AGAIN.
Sooner or later we'll have to get lucky with an easterly. I won't post the ECM +144 cos if it looks too good to be true then it is but I see potential in the +120. Heres hoping!

Mr Bumble

Mt speaks about three possible outcomes for coming spell this morning . Presumably, if the charts above pan out, his 20% shot has a good chance of being right??

Weathering

Mr Bumble wrote: »

Mt speaks about three possible outcomes for coming spell this morning . Presumably, if the charts above pan out, his 20% shot has a good chance of being right??

I wouldn't waste my time. Fc 1day ahead is the limit this winter

Weathering

Mr Bumble wrote: »

Mt speaks about three possible outcomes for coming spell this morning . Presumably, if the charts above pan out, his 20% shot has a good chance of being right??

I wouldn't waste my time. Fc 1day ahead is the limit this winter it changes that much. Charts have been worthless. Think hes clinging on with that 20pc tbh

Mr Bumble

Agreed models have been all over the place for more than two months now, making it particularly bad time for a novice to try and make sense out of it all. But is this just a glass half full or empty thing...ie a perrsonal interpretation based on knowledge and instinct which has as much chance of being right as wrong given the chaotic charts???

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Lovely FI on the GFS there this morning

Tom Cruises Left Nut

The ensebmles look nice for my gaf !

odyboody

Mr Bumble wrote: »

Agreed models have been all over the place for more than two months now, making it particularly bad time for a novice to try and make sense out of it all. But is this just a glass half full or empty thing...ie a perrsonal interpretation based on knowledge and instinct which has as much chance of being right as wrong given the chaotic charts???

Know what you mean, if the both the pros and the knowledgeable folks on here can't tell whats lightly to happen we may as well be sticking a wet finger in the air.

Always be positive. The glass is always full its just the percentage of liquid to air that is changing :rolleyes:.

hyperborean

I presume this spell of uncertainty will be a great help to fine tune future modeling analysis?

ninebeanrows

That Scandinavian block is becoming more and more of an influence in the models this evening and has over the last few days.


At the moment its influence isn't great on Ireland but we get a sliding low with rain/sleet/snow on Sunday and a very cold easterly feed Monday/Tuesday with some wintry showers.

But there is potential for an ugrade and the system Sunday will be a forecasting problem wrt precip type.

TheMilkyPirate

We heard you the first time WC :rolleyes:





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