Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

jimmy.d

Weathercheck wrote: »

That Scandinavian block is becoming more and more of an influence in the models this evening and has over the last few days.


At the moment its influence isn't great on Ireland but we get a sliding low with rain/sleet/snow on Sunday and a very cold easterly feed Monday/Tuesday with some wintry showers.

But there is potential for an ugrade and the system Sunday will be a forecasting problem wrt precip type.

here is a nice couple of charts starting a roller again

Nabber

The sliding low is quite a neat little system. It interesting to see that the N. Atlantic is so muted in terms of dragging mild air in. I see some of the charts with -4 to 0c coming from the West. The Westerly's have been rolling in for the past few days, but it has not done a whole lot to dragging are day and night temps up.

Always a good sign to see heights rise in the north. But somehow i think we will end up on the warm side of a Azores - scandi link up.

This winter isn't over yet. But my optimism dwindles each day. The ECM played us bad in December.

If the Wicklow mountains takes a pasting I'm all for setting up boardies weather meet up for a snow ball fight. I think that sliding low might do it.

JanuarySnowstor

I don't see this Scandi high as being of any use to Ireland as currently modelled.
There is room for upgrades though and it's worth watching over the coming days.
Interesting to see Ian B being slated over on N-W by almost every member.
Why?? Because he doesn't share a cold at all costs view
It's a pity such a fine forum has such a heavy bias towards cold that realistic posts showing a milder outcome are just bullied into submission

John.Icy

I think if we are to have any chance at cold coming from the east, we need heights to disappear to our SW. There all good if those heights shoot up to Greenland, but if we're looking to see action from a Scandi high, heights to our SW will most likely equal Ireland being on the outside of an cold air advection westwards.

A slider is all good for a day or two to draw in cold winds, but once it dissipates there's no guarantee were left in a cold flow, with HP looming to our SW.

Interesting few days ahead regardless, a very nice GFS +384 chart, but it's so far out I dont even know why I looked!

TheMilkyPirate

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I don't see this Scandi high as being of any use to Ireland as currently modelled.
There is room for upgrades though and it's worth watching over the coming days.
Interesting to see Ian B being slated over on N-W by almost every member.
Why?? Because he doesn't share a cold at all costs view
It's a pity such a fine forum has such a heavy bias towards cold that realistic posts showing a milder outcome are just bullied into submission

Pack of clowns over there, I don't even bother anymore.

Rebelbrowser

baraca wrote: »

Pack of clowns over there, I don't even bother anymore.

Actually something interesting tonight on that very site from Ian Ferguson of yhe UK Met. From the sounds of this Ireland might have a chance of an interesting weekend...

"
Not really sure where all this misguided 'GFS is rubbish' twaddle emerged on here (we're discussing computer models, not football teams)... but to return to the focal point of Sunday, which we anticipate could deliver a significant snow event: 

At stake here are some marked differences in the rate of E'ward frontal progression into the UK between the 12z UKMO-GM and other operational centre output, notably ECMWF. These appear correlated to the rapidity and scope at which the amplifying upper ridge over the country on Saturday cuts-off. For example, the 12z ECMWF deterministic is markedly slower with this process compared to UKMO-GM, with net result of retarding the frontal progression to a greater extent. This slower solution is favoured by Exeter, who have modified the GM accordingly (away from raw version you'll see on websites). 

Clearly this has profound implications in what will prove a high-stakes forecast, should current evolution continue in similar tone. Bear in mind the frontal zone in question is only just now taking shape off E coast of N America... still a way to go on this story. 

However, the slower EC (and presently modified GM) solution offers less threat of disruptive snow into London during Sunday, as opposed to raw GM, which did. Hence, this sort of issue - high stakes, as I suggest - remains a clear uncertainty.

The consensus solution follows EC's snow accumulation prognosis (sorry I'm not allowed to share that as actual mapping), which - with frontal leading edge moving into sub-300m WBFL air across much of S England & Midlands/Wales - looks a decidedly bothersome blend. EC offers as much as 10-15cm snow anywhere from approx central Somerset up through Bristol, eastwards to around Reading and north through pretty much all of Wales and West Mids (some peak totals in these areas excess of 20cm). To the SE, similar amounts (to around 10cm) across Wilts, Hants, to W Sussex. Clearly, distribution is uncertain but in broad terms, the combined weight of EPS and deterministic output is indicative of parts of W/S Scotland, eastern Northern Ireland, N England, Wales, West Country north of Taunton, West Midlands and southern-central England being most at risk of disruptive snowfall durIng Sunday and overnight into early Monday.  Currently, Exeter suggest 30% chance of some snow into London itself later on Sunday, albeIt any ccumulations here in the capital are thought likely to be pretty small."

Elmer Blooker

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Actually something interesting tonight on that very site from Ian Ferguson of yhe UK Met. From the sounds of this Ireland might have a chance of an interesting weekend...

and heres a quote from ME's latest forecast.

The rain will remain along the east coast for much of Sunday and there is the risk of some wintry precipitation as colder air from the east hits the rain. A cold day with highs of only 4 to 7 degrees.

I can't believe some of the "winter is over" posts here today, of course we could miss out as we often do but with blocking to the NE the potential is there, I just hope this block isn't as weak as it was in January.

Weathering

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

and heres a quote from ME's latest forecast.



I can't believe some of the "winter is over" posts here today, of course we could miss out as we often do but with blocking to the NE the potential is there, I just hope this block isn't as weak as it was in January.

We're just being realistic about it. 3.5 weeks left of Winter and we're in the usual neither here nor there set up of this winter. "Potential" more false hope in all honesty and the hardened boardsies have had there fair share of disappointment this winter with it snowing in England etc

I'm not chasing the charts hoping for this to change or move west nor am I implying u are. I'm just saying I want it to happen but I'm fed up at this stage,unless something conclusive in near near near x 1million time frame shows up I'm not going to waste my time

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathering wrote: »

We're just being realistic about it. 3.5 weeks left of Winter and we're in the usual neither here nor there set up of this winter. "Potential" more false hope in all honesty and the hardened boardsies have had there fair share of disappointment this winter with it snowing in England etc

I'm not chasing the charts hoping for this to change or move west nor am I implying u are. I'm just saying I want it to happen but I'm fed up at this stage,unless something conclusive in near near near x 1million time frame shows up I'm not going to waste my time

There are more than 3.5 weeks left, if you get a cold air push I would say there are potentially 7.5 weeks of the season left at least

whitebriar

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

and heres a quote from ME's latest forecast.



I can't believe some of the "winter is over" posts here today, of course we could miss out as we often do but with blocking to the NE the potential is there, I just hope this block isn't as weak as it was in January.

Of course its going to be weak,its worse than feb 2012...
Nothing to see here unless you pitch a tent on top of lug.
A rinse and repeat of boring cold rain and that infernal wind and +2 dewpoints

Dig out the charts of february 1991,start in the first week and look at them to the 20th.Compare to the snorefest we have now.
That's a scandi high.I had ice days here during that preceding a week of 8 inches of snow from streamers
Anything else won't deliver to Ireland,period... despite the daydreaming.

Elmer Blooker

t|nt|n wrote: »

There are more than 3.5 weeks left, if you get a cold air push I would say there are potentially 7.5 weeks of the season left at least

I agree, I remember a decent fall of about 10-15cm on February 28th 2001 and lo and behold it was still there the next day - it didn't miraculously disappear at midnight when the calendar changed to March 1st! :rolleyes:
The lowest temperature I ever recorded in my back yard before Jan 2010 was actually the first week of March after that fall when I recorded -8c for several consecutive nights with lying snow.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I agree, I remember a decent fall of about 10-15cm on February 28th 2001 and lo and behold it was still there the next day - it didn't miraculously disappear at midnight when the calendar changed to March 1st! :rolleyes:
The lowest temperature I ever recorded in my back yard before Jan 2010 was actually the first week of March after that fall when I recorded -8c for several consecutive nights with lying snow.

Sure I keep the faith in July for fecks sake haha

More model watching needed......

Rebelbrowser

Just looking at the 0z ecm and 6z gfs, if you use the hemisphere view, there really is no cold pool on this side of the globe, inc. Russia. Its hard to see where the cold might come from in the next 10 days accordingly....

pauldry

No more snow in Sligo this week for sure but the cold air and borderline temperatures will keep us hanging on until the middle of March.

A much more interesting Winter than last year. At least there have been possibilities and I have woken to whiteness twice so far and Sligo is at sea level right in front of that raging Northwest wind so the rest of you in Ulster and some Eastern parts must have had 4 or 5 mornings.

Also Casement has already registered some snow for the Winter competition and last year I recall trace amounts.

Winter is not over by a long shot and the East has 2 risks Thursday and Sunday of seeing more snowflakes

whitebriar

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I agree, I remember a decent fall of about 10-15cm on February 28th 2001 and lo and behold it was still there the next day - it didn't miraculously disappear at midnight when the calendar changed to March 1st! :rolleyes:
The lowest temperature I ever recorded in my back yard before Jan 2010 was actually the first week of March after that fall when I recorded -8c for several consecutive nights with lying snow.

Only eejits are saying winters over...
But there is not going to be snow in most populated areas this w/end going on current synoptics.
Add to that,there's no sign of the atlantic quieting at the moment,so logic suggests a rinse and repeat of what we just had is to come UNLESS something changes.
So snorefest for now.

Weathering

t|nt|n wrote: »

There are more than 3.5 weeks left, if you get a cold air push I would say there are potentially 7.5 weeks of the season left at least

No there are 3.5weeks left of winter it is a fact. Yes u can get snow in March but it's spring so it will melt easier etc. You wouldn't get a cold spell like dec 2010 in march unless cold had been in place for quite a while and even then its a tall task

In conclusion,yes there are 3.5weeks left of winter and yes you can get snow after that but more and more elements are against you to get it to last long

weatherfiend

Weathering wrote: »

No there are 3.5weeks left of winter it is a fact. Yes u can get snow in March but it's spring so it will melt easier etc. You wouldn't get a cold spell like dec 2010 in march unless cold had been in place for quite a while and even then its a tall task

In conclusion,yes there are 3.5weeks left of winter and yes you can get snow after that but more and more elements are against you to get it to last long

To be fair that's assuming march becomes springlike as we would like to know it - mild and hinting at summer ............. as we would also like to know it. That doesn't necessarily happen for us!!

Weathering

weatherfiend wrote: »

To be fair that's assuming march becomes springlike as we would like to know it - mild and hinting at summer ............. as we would also like to know it. That doesn't necessarily happen for us!!

Sorry don't really understand what you're saying or your point. gibberish

weatherfiend

Weathering wrote: »

Sorry don't really understand what you're saying or your point

I'm referring to your point that because march is spring, any snow will melt more quickly so in weather terms - if we were to get a huge blast of cold over the next 3.5 weeks, then t|nt|n's point about possibly 7.5 weeks still being left to enjoy cold weather is / could be valid. Meteorologically yes winter ends at the end February but not necessarily weather-wise

200motels

Back to the models, an interesting chart 144hrs out from ECMWF it will probably be gone on the next run.

dopolahpec

Greenland High featuring very strongly in GFS ensembles post 192 hours. That's something worth keeping a real eye on. A proper beast from the east last 10 days of feb?

Flan_Da_Man125

Latest Gfs Run is looking better between 96h and 138h. I'm no weather genius but bigger improvement on last runs. East moving slightly closer on each run

Elmer Blooker

whitebriar wrote: »

Only eejits are saying winters over...
But there is not going to be snow in most populated areas this w/end going on current synoptics.
Add to that,there's no sign of the atlantic quieting at the moment,so logic suggests a rinse and repeat of what we just had is to come UNLESS something changes.
So snorefest for now.

Do you think so? it doesn't look that active if you ask me? - nice ridge from Russia to Greenland as well. Building blocks?
I think the charts are quite interesting at the moment, it may well turn out to be another snowless winter where I am but I'd hardly call it a snorefest at the moment
PS. the Azores looks a bit weaker too.

JanuarySnowstor

You have to laugh over on Snowwatch (aka N-W) how they all refuse to admit the consistent sign that the wkd cold blip will breakdown to milder Southwesterly's.
It really is hilarious how they ramp so much and ban anyone who speaks reason (aka mild)

Mr Cumulonimbus

12Z ECM at +120 showing potential.

Blizzard 2010

Hopefully that 120hr will verify. Hasnt been a bad winter overall

dopolahpec

Mr Cumulonimbus wrote: »

12Z ECM at +120 showing potential.

What's the catch with these charts? Very muted response to what potentially looks like a brief but solid snow chance for the east?

Rougies

dopolahpec wrote: »

What's the catch with these charts? Very muted response to what potentially looks like a brief but solid snow chance for the east?

They're 120hrs out, and even if they were only 24hrs out they still wouldn't be very exciting. We've seen it all before this winter and it didn't amount to much.

mickger844posts

Rougies wrote: »

They're 120hrs out, and even if they were only 24hrs out they still wouldn't be very exciting. We've seen it all before this winter and it didn't amount to much.

I agree with your point to a certain extent. How many times this Winter has the ECM shown decent potential at 120hrs for it not to deliver. A very poor Winter in general for the models especially for the ECM.

JanuarySnowstor

mickger844posts wrote: »

I agree with your point to a certain extent. How many times this Winter has the ECM shown decent potential at 120hrs for it not to deliver. A very poor Winter in general for the models especially for the ECM.

Indeed, all 3 models have been poor though contrary to what they say on NW I rather think the gfs has been best of lot. Of course the reason it is often rubbished this year is it's been the first to offset the cold!!
In general, though not the mildest Winter, it's been quite a disappointment when you consider the hype and background last Nov