Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

patneve2

Definitely a better GFS run so far

John.Icy

Said it yesterday, will say it again. Azores high = no cold spell.

What we may have on our plates is a transitional snow event at some stage...although it's been dwindling at +120 for what, two days now?? So details for that will have to be nailed whether it's a no go or maybe a little something for us.

ninebeanrows

The 18z is very interesting, there is a decent chance of some snow especially for the east and northeast early next week in association with that slider low.

dopolahpec

ECM showing -8 uppers over eastern half of ireland from monday lunchtime until wednesday afternoon

Harps

Yeah that low is far more developed on this mornings ECMWF and GFS, not so much on other models. Could be an interesting day but wouldn't be getting hopes up at the moment



The op run is at the colder end of the ensemble but general agreement that it'll drag in some cold air before dropping south, the following milder spell looks to be well overplayed as well

snaps

the only problem I see is that there is no real cold to be pulled in from mainland Europe?
the sun here also is getting her strength back. Was chopping wood yesterday in the sun out of the breeze, it was lovely. Even the cats were belly up sunning themselves!

Villain

Enjoy this coming Monday could well be last chance of Snow this Winter going on latest charts with a North East feed with -8 uppers

dopolahpec

snaps wrote: »

the only problem I see is that there is no real cold to be pulled in from mainland Europe?
the sun here also is getting her strength back. Was chopping wood yesterday in the sun out of the breeze, it was lovely. Even the cats were belly up sunning themselves!

Not so relevant. What we are looking at here is a two day cold snap, with a decent easterly feed, good potential for heavy snow showers, and -8 uppers. It's miles better than what we saw earlier in January, and could upgrade again. It's a genuine chance for a proper snow day.

Personally I would love to see dark clouds give a good dumping of snow over a 48 hour period between Monday and Tuesday, get out in it with the young lad who has never seen snow. And then if we are done with it for the winter fair enough. It is february after all.

LFCFan

Sky News showed snow over the East today with that front coming from the West hitting the colder air currently over us. Will that happen or are Sky News no good at this weather predicting malarky?

DOCARCH

Villain wrote: »

Enjoy this coming Monday could well be last chance of Snow this Winter going on latest charts with a North East feed with -8 uppers

I'd appreciate if you would keep those sort of opinions to yourself!

Never turn your back on snow!!!

dopolahpec

GFS 06z :-(

Shows a good easterly feed, but the uppers are a disaster, -2s, -6s, -4s for the same period the ECM is showing -8 uppers. The air is sourced from a different location.

ninebeanrows

dopolahpec wrote: »

GFS 06z :-(

Shows a good easterly feed, but the uppers are a disaster, -2s, -6s, -4s for the same period the ECM is showing -8 uppers. The air is sourced from a different location.

Just a different evolution of the low.

Will be a few ups and downs before Monday!

Nothing to be concerned about yet as the overal synoptic is similar.

JanuarySnowstor

Good upgrade this evening from the gfs.
Snow chances improving for late Sun and Monday.
Longer term is far from sorted and I have a feeling next week will upgrade from here on in.
ECM will be interesting tonight but I have to say the gfs is my favourite for the moment on accuracy

Elmer Blooker

Im a bit anxious about the ECM later because ME (at 1615) forecasted milder weather with SW'lies "around" the middle of next week.
They, obviously have access to information which us amateurs don't, so I hope the 12z ECM isn't a horror show.

John.Icy

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

the gfs is my favourite for the moment on accuracy

You're joking right?

GFS was well behind up until around two days ago when it came on board with ECM and UKMO and others in regards to Monday/Tuesday.

It cannot in anyway, with how it has been rubbished for much of the past week by many forecasters on several sites, be the most accurate now that it shows cold.

TheMilkyPirate

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Good upgrade this evening from the gfs.
Snow chances improving for late Sun and Monday.
Longer term is far from sorted and I have a feeling next week will upgrade from here on in.
ECM will be interesting tonight but I have to say the gfs is my favourite for the moment on accuracy

Think the GFS has been the winner this year for sure. It's a delicate situation For Sunday/Monday but looking better with each run. ECM will be interesting in a half hour, And then hopefully the 00z and 12z GFS tomorrow will give some confirmation.

Elmer Blooker

baraca wrote: »

Think the GFS has been the winner this year for sure. It's a delicate situation For Sunday/Monday but looking better with each run. ECM will be interesting in a half hour, And then hopefully the 00z and 12z GFS tomorrow will give some confirmation.

Just beware! ME use ECM and they are forecasting milder weather for the middle of next week as I said above.

munsterlegend

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Just beware! ME use ECM and they are forecasting milder weather for the middle of next week as I said above.

but that is the same forecast from this morning? They won't have seen the latest ECM yet whatever it will show later.

TheMilkyPirate

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Just beware! ME use ECM and they are forecasting milder weather for the middle of next week as I said above.

Yes that's what's showing alright. It's Sunday/Monday and Tuesday that are the interesting days at the moment.

ninebeanrows

A definite trend towards colder weather towards the end of the GFS runs of late.

February could turn out a rather chilly month in the end.

Elmer Blooker

munsterlegend wrote: »

but that is the same forecast from this morning? They won't have seen the latest ECM yet whatever it will show later.

No. That forecast was issued at 1615. In HQ at Glasnevin they have information constantly coming in so I would think they have already seen the latest ECM which they rely on. It's us mere mortals who have sit around waiting for the latest ECM or GFS or whatever.
Anyway at least its a week away and confidence would be low.

TheMilkyPirate

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

No. That forecast was issued at 1615. In HQ at Glasnevin they have information constantly coming in so I would think they have already seen the latest ECM which they rely on. It's us mere mortals who have sit around waiting for the latest ECM or GFS or whatever.
Anyway at least its a week away and confidence would be low.

As far as I know, It rolls out at 6pm and that's it no special times for anyone, Met office or not.

munsterlegend

baraca wrote: »

As far as I know, It rolls out at 6pm and that's it no special times for anyone, Met office or not.

that was my understanding as well.

Nabber

GFS in my opinion has been the best of some bad modelling this winter. Maybe the relatively cold upper of most of North Atlantic has made it particularly difficult, also with the fact we have been in the marginal zone for every event this winter. Marginal is by far the hardest to forecast. Half a degree here or there changes everything. ECM really ramped up some charts tho UKMO was somewhere in the middle. China model did ok. Might set it up to make it a top 4 models.

As for the coming days, Wicklow mountains here I come

TheMilkyPirate

ECM frozen at 24h for anybody else?

ninebeanrows

ECM not quite as good as this morning.

It moves the low centre south but not far enough to give a clean feed of very cold uppers (<-8c)

On this run 850s are in the region of -5 to -7c

However the flip of this is the precipitation will heavier etc etc.

Going to be an interesting few days and the track of the LP centre will be crucial, even with a 50-100mile positioning spread.

TheMilkyPirate

Where are you viewing it WC? Meteociel won't go past 24h for me.

ninebeanrows

baraca wrote: »

Where are you viewing it WC? Meteociel won't go past 24h for me.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html

whitebriar

Weathercheck wrote: »

ECM not quite as good as this morning.

It moves the low centre south but not far enough to give a clean feed of very cold uppers (<-8c)

On this run 850s are in the region of -5 to -7c

However the flip of this is the precipitation will heavier etc etc.

Going to be an interesting few days and the track of the LP centre will be crucial, even with a 50-100mile positioning spread.

Forecasters nightmare.
Snowline for populated south Dublin,could be Dundrum,glencullen or the portacabin at three rocks Rte transmitter.
Sadly its likely to be the latter.

JanuarySnowstor

ECM is another upgrade for Ireland.
We need the ppn to be there WC ?!
Not much point having colder uppers and drier.
Imo far better to have it marginal and guarantee the ppn being heavy
Poor old UK, we get all their snow