Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

patneve2

Flooding likely to be an issue on Sunday. Expecting the last hour or two of the low's precip. to turn snowy before some graupel/snow showers develop over the Irish sea in a NE wind.

patneve2

GFS 18z definitely a downgrade, but still plenty of time for it to go either way

On the plus the Russian-Scandinavian high looks a lot stronger so far into the run

Gonzo

patneve2 wrote: »

GFS 18z definitely a downgrade, but still plenty of time for it to go either way

On the plus the Russian-Scandinavian high looks a lot stronger so far into the run

poor Ireland, what have we done to deserve this winter, really thinking about throwing in the towel like a few others have said recently. It's tough to remain positive after 3 months of downgrades, we are a week away from mid-february so not alot of time left. I know we will see more snow but im not interested in marginal conditions or dustings that melt in 5 minutes.

ninebeanrows

well a real variety this morning.

I checked out the 0z GFS and said to myself 'typical'

Sig differences and the direction and timing of the cold air advection.

But the UKM and ECM are much more positive for a snow event late Sunday/Monday

ECM not far from maintaining an easterly feed thereafter.

Key time stamp is now 72hrs.. note variety

GFS



UKM


EC

whitebriar

very marginal stuff in Ireland with -5 uppers.
The Irish sea will modify dewpoints too much without the support of a cold enough surface air feed over green Britain.
Most people live below 600ft asl so more fceking rain not snow for most.

At best similar to the mid january dud.

dopolahpec

Not much to be happy about in the models or MTs forecast this morning. Another fish slips through the net. Snow for the Dublin mountains I reckon

Reckless Abandonment

ME have the risk of snow in their Sunday forecast ... I'd agree it looks marginal but I wouldn't be writing it off just yet.. the position of the low is not nailed down yet, this will probably cone down to a nowcast suiation ....

patneve2

ECM still good, the shape of the low of the GFS is terrible though

Elmer Blooker

ME going for rain spreading east followed by much milder weather next Thurs.
ME use ECM yet this chart suggests settled frosty weather, I have no idea where the rain is coming from? Perhaps some weak fronts brushing along the NW coast?

ninebeanrows

The balance of the ECM EPS eould say fronts struggling to make it in from the west from Thursday.

Cold with snow Monday

Very cold Tuesday, snow showers in east.

Wednesday, harsh early frost, possible ice day in parts, mostly dry.

Thursday, front approaching from the west turning to sleet or hill snow as it slowly moveseast, early harsh frost.

JanuarySnowstor

Well all to play for this morning.
Marginal but sure isn't it always in this country
Let's see what the 06z run brings

snaps

Not much said on the latest me tv forecast.

whitebriar

snaps wrote: »

Not much said on the latest me tv forecast.

No mention of winter by David Rogers on the radio lunchtime either.
Rain Sunday and 5 to 9c....

average_runner

People are really clutching at straws here, the same way they were last few times. If its marginal, its odd on Ireland will miss out.

And the rain can feck off too, I am going to the match on Sunday

JanuarySnowstor

yeah it has turned a bit too marginal now in the last 24hours
We need to see upgrades on the evening runs to keep the interest going.
The US is going to have some fun though!!

whitebriar

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

yeah it has turned a bit too marginal now in the last 24hours
We need to see upgrades on the evening runs to keep the interest going.
The US is going to have some fun though!!

You'd want huge upgrades and another week really because temps in scandi are only around zero and this is the place we're looking to advect air from.

Mt I think is relying on creep,that is cold air seeping and this is happening but its just not cold enough air to deliver.
Ta da for now,next comments from me Sunday,should it be interesting enough.

Elmer Blooker

whitebriar wrote: »

No mention of winter by David Rogers on the radio lunchtime either.
Rain Sunday and 5 to 9c....

this was issued at 1151 from ME.

t will become colder as the day goes on and showers will turn increasingly wintry with hail and sleet likely. Daytime temperatures will range from about 3 to 6 degrees. Temperatures will drop further on Sunday night and there'll be a significant risk of snow, especially over Ulster and Leinster. A sharp frost will develop in places also.

Not great ME! Two different forecasts
See the time of the forecast above - it was issued before David Roger's forecast. Whether it rains or snows they could at least be consistent.

whitebriar

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

this was issued at 1151 from ME.



Not great ME! Two different forecasts
See the time of the forecast above - it was issued before David Roger's forecast. Whether it rains or snows they could at least be consistent.

Just had a look at a recording of Evelyn's forecast and she has snow in the northeast on Sunday

ninebeanrows

GFS seemingly sticking to its guns placing that low in a akward spot, with the colder uppers staying north for a time.

It didn't have any support this morning but with the 12z OP showing this it's quite concerning.

ninebeanrows

It is funny, a similar low centre to the one progged here to the northwest of Ireland is extremely similar to the small low that scuppered the snow event a few weeks back.

Weathering

Can't check the charts weathercheck. Are the cold uppers in place over donegal/how far north are they. Cheers

dacogawa

Looks like a downgrade for Monday on the 12 run

ninebeanrows

Weathering wrote: »

Can't check the charts weathercheck. Are the cold uppers in place over donegal/how far north are they. Cheers

Not per GFS, the GFS is totally different with the low orientation that model consensus.

Eg the MetOffice snow warning for much of the UK would be scraped if this was to be the outcome.

I wouldn't pay toooooo much attention to it, although knowing the way things go, it is probably right :pac:

ninebeanrows

UKM is better but it still develops that horribly familar low to the northwest by T72hrs which is not what we want to see.

T60


T72



The caveat being this low to the northwest which on higher res runs will like be ramped up and cause a dilution of uppers for southern parts of Ireland.

JanuarySnowstor

Well I'm happy to call it now this evening as a non starter and non event!
Better off watching the snow disruption on CNN than following models right now.
My advice is watch the rugby, enjoy it and come back Monday and see where we are
It's been that kinda Winter tbh

barney 20v

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Well I'm happy to call it now this evening as a non starter and non event!
Better off watching the snow disruption on CNN than following models right now.
My advice is watch the rugby, enjoy it and come back Monday and see where we are
It's been that kinda Winter tbh

contradicting what more senior posters here including MT have been saying for weeks/months ... 17/18 degrees on paddys day anyone???;)

snowstreams

Would that same little low to the north west that is causing problems for low level snow, actually increase the snow in the wicklow mountains? Just like what happened last time?
I always used to go to the wicklow mountains for my snow fix before our recent spell of cold winters.

oterra

From Ian Fergusson over on de Twitter

"Quite! "@MattHugo81: As with the 00z run, ignore the 12z GFS Det model for Sunday. Poor sums the model up regarding handling this feature."

I'm gonna disregard all model outputs today and cherry pick the best over the last 3 years and believe it is happening. You should try it. Can get very cold in your head!!!!
Now down on all fours with me and off to the pub....

ZX7R

I cant see us getting much on Sunday into Monday ,there is just not much of a cold pool of air to our east or north for that matter,but saying that most of us woke up to snow on Tuesday morning and that came from the west so you never know

whitebriar

Basically all ecm 144 and 120 ecm charts have been lies in the last few weeks,they never verify.
Entropy must be high again.
Why should we pay attention to tonights?
BIN.