Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

cherryghost

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Yes, excellent 18z from the gfs
Would give a spell of snow moving East to West Thursday night into Friday!!

There's little or no precip in it though. Maybe a light dusting.

mickger844posts

With the GFS now on board its time to keep an eye on this and see how it develops. The ECM doesn't convince me at all with their output of late but still encouraging signs overall with two of the so called big three slowly looking similar.

power101

Lads how is this forum not hopping. The charts tonight are unreal. Around 120 hours out so not beyond the realms of possibility!

Wide ranging agreement on all the latest models I could find. From -6 uppers to -10 uppers and a serious beast from the east!

tomcosgrave

The forums are not hopping because there has been so much of a letdown this winter. I'm the same myself - hoping against hope, but refusing to get excited.

aboyro

tomcosgrave wrote: »

The forums are not hopping because there has been so much of a letdown this winter. I'm the same myself - hoping against hope, but refusing to get excited.

i'm refusing to get excited but refusing to let go either!!!!!!!!:)

power101

Two runs later and guess what folks the Beast from the East is still on its way only now its 12 hours sooner. Earliest is now 102 hrs, latest 144hrs.

Only 24 hrs before we start to get out of FI.

I have not put up many modeles so far this year because I didn't believe much would come from them.

Now I'm putting them up.

Believe people!

ZX7R

If the charts look like that within 24hour of 21st i will start to belive;), power101, untill then its great time for reading charts,great eye candy all the same.
For some reasion the ecm still look a bit strange to me after 120h it seems to be under playing the cold compaired to the other models

Larbre34

The FI bar for this entire winter has been +72, I have no reason to change that assessment and I would still expect massive modification of those +144 charts before we get to realtime. I'm not seeing conditions for east coast daytime highs of 2 or 3 for next Friday, I'm expecting more like 6 in a slack SE flow.

Gonzo

likewise I will only get excited within the 18-24 hour timeframe, we've had far too many false hopes and bitter dissapointments and I dont want to sound like an idiot again for warning family of snow and nothing happens... lets just see what happens. If this works out we are just inside the reliable time of year for something decent to happen that wont melt in 20 minutes... fingers, toes and everything else crossed for this one...

Just saw the forecast on RTE and it looks like we are in for dry, settled and sunny weather from tomorrow evening to at least Thursday which is fantastic news regardless of temperature. It will give a chance for the ground to dry up, there will be plenty of night frosts but then things may turn more unsettled in the East next Thursday with sleet/snow showers. Possibly the best forecast Ive heard all winter.

compsys

Gonzo wrote: »

likewise I will only get excited within the 18-24 hour timeframe, we've had far too many false hopes and bitter dissapointments and I dont want to sound like an idiot again for warning family of snow and nothing happens... lets just see what happens. If this works out we are just inside the reliable time of year for something decent to happen that wont melt in 20 minutes... fingers, toes and everything else crossed for this one...

You're completely right about the timing. Mid to late February is still very much a good time for some decent cold and snow, albeit latish in the season. Too man people on here are convinced that spring starts on 1st February weather wise, which is silly for a weather forum. In fact, late February is probably the best time for snow in Ireland as dew point are likely to be lower and the sea colder.

Whilst the cold is still out in FI at the moment what appears different about this projected cold spell is that the models are showing a real push of cold air very far west. All the other projected cold spells only really saw -6 to -8 uppers clipping the east and north east costs so it was never going to take much for the cold to be pushed back slightly, as unfortunately happened on several occasions.

It seems like there'd need to be a far greater turn around with this cold spell.

ZX7R

I wonder what maquiladora views are on this up coming cold spell....

Duiske

compsys wrote: »

Whilst the cold is still out in FI at the moment what appears different about this projected cold spell is that the models are showing a real push of cold air very far west. All the other projected cold spells only really saw -6 to -8 uppers clipping the east and north east costs so it was never going to take much for the cold to be pushed back slightly, as unfortunately happened on several occasions.

It seems like there'd need to be a far greater turn around with this cold spell.

I really can't see anyway we can avoid that cold push as things stand. Only a niggling doubt about the shape of the high. If the high moves too far south, while it will certainly be cold, it would also be dry with very limited chance of shower activity. Anyway, as is often said, we need the cold first and then we can worry about the details. Charts watching from early Monday will be very interesting.

mickger844posts

A quick flick through all the latest runs and i have rarely seen such agreement across the board at 144hr. We all know its FI and they could as easily be wrong as right but still potentially a significant cold spell could be on the horizon.

snowstorm445

GFS not as great as earlier with the High being moved across to Shetland and then further west, rather than Scandinavia where it should be ideally. Still some very good uppers and chance for some snow across much of the country.

TheMilkyPirate

High a bit more south on the GFS. Synoptics still pretty much the same. Plenty more runs to go yet!

200motels

It will all go tits up.

Duiske

200motels wrote: »

It will all go tits up.

Any particular reason why you think that ?

Speak Now

I think I've seen this movie, it ends with a sinking high or a short wave spoiler.

John.Icy

Yeah not great seeing the high abit further South on GFS.

Not only does it increase the risk of the high sinking completely in the next few runs, it also means it would be very dry.

Cold wise, still decent runs.

But snow wise, I don't expect much apart from coastal flurries atm. For one, Easterly/South East winds are less favourable for strong convection unless there are disturbances. Secondly, if that GFS came off, pressure would be too high and cut off shower activity barring the very far south.

UKMO is of the same vein sadly. Very dry.

Hopefully ECM has the high in a better position.

If it also moves it South...I'd become very worried about the fate of this cold spell.

Edit: just a FI chart from GFS. Look at the cold building in Europe. Severe cold, extreme! So even well into March there is cold enough uppers to provide proper wintry spells and not weak affairs that the sun and longer days will obliterate.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013021612/gfsnh-1-384.png?12

snowstorm445

The silence speaks volumes. The ECM has the high even further south, giving us dry and frosty weather whilst the majority of the snow gets sent to France. This is backed up by most models.

It really is just a repeat of what we've been seeing throughout this winter. Hyped up snow events that are either watered down in the end or don't even materialise.

pistolpetes11

Nice ECM chart here ,

Atlantic be held well back , High moving NW ,

200motels

Duiske wrote: »

Any particular reason why you think that ?

It has happened all winter, everytime we get a half decent run after a few more runs it's gone, even now the high has moved a bit further south, any more movement south and we'll have mild south westerlies.

TheMilkyPirate

Don't fancy this one at all, High is too far south and falling on every run.

Rikand

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Nice ECM chart here ,

Atlantic be held well back , High moving NW ,

How can you want this ????

We're meant to be playing in Esker on Saturday!!!!

Deank

Rickylovesuall wrote: »

How can you want this ????

We're meant to be playing in Esker on Saturday!!!!

Bring your toboggan so, there's plenty of nice hills on that old lady to go ramping on....:D

pistolpetes11

baraca wrote: »

Don't fancy this one at all, High is too far south and falling on every run.

It will go north west not South East and has been backing away from sinking South east

pistolpetes11

Rickylovesuall wrote: »

How can you want this ????

We're meant to be playing in Esker on Saturday!!!!

My true love is the weather , there will be plenty of golfing to be done , I need my winter fix .......

Badly

Snowc

Some lovey gfs charts this evening .

cherryghost

Bad charts this morning. Cold breaking down even before it hits the UK. Oh well.

Weathering

cherryghost wrote: »

Bad charts this morning. Cold breaking down even before it hits the UK. Oh well.

Typical..saved me from checking them myself