Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Nabber

I don't see why not. Time will tell tho.

ninebeanrows

One step forward two steps back this evening.

ECM and GFS 18z are back towards the High being too close to us.

We need a shift soon to enable snow showers for Ireland. At this stage looking unlikely.

DanRu

A long way out in FI but I'm banking this. GFS 300+

snowstorm445

Fairly atrocious GFS run if your looking for any type of snow with cold uppers barely clipping Ireland and the High moving even further south. The ECM is better with colder uppers eventually reaching us before the cold pool warms up. Some very frosty nights ahead, but very dry.

Harps

ECMWF keeps the high centred over us right out to the end of the month so the prospect of two weeks without a drop of rain still a reality



Some nice mild air over us as well towards the end of the run, a chance we'll just be stuck under a layer of low cloud but if we do manage some sunshine then it'd feel very spring-like

Speak Now

Looking good for the high pressure to see out the month over us
Could be a nice start to spring

kingshankly

Folks any sign of some temperature in the teens on the horizon. Not a lover of the cold unless it brings snow

pistolpetes11

kingshankly wrote: »

Folks any sign of some temperature in the teens on the horizon. Not a lover of the cold unless it brings snow

Not in the reliable time frame , some thing in the far reaches of FI all rite h

Rebelbrowser

This mornings runs are good for coldies. This weekend does now look seriously cold with -9 uppers in the East and South at times on the ECM (see http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-b...0&WMO=&PERIOD= and http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-b...0&WMO=&PERIOD= ). Snow will be a nowcasting affair - at the moment the models say no but I'll be pressing f5 on the met eireann radar once or twice this weekend I suspect. MT on another forum has posted his view that if you have sufficiently cold uppers then showers will happen - instability or not.

After that there is an increasing risk of a Northerly in 10 days time. The charts of yesterday showing warmth at the start of March are gone for now....

lucernarian

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

This mornings runs are good for coldies. This weekend does now look seriously cold with -9 uppers in the East and South at times on the ECM (see http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-b...0&WMO=&PERIOD= and http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-b...0&WMO=&PERIOD= ). Snow will be a nowcasting affair - at the moment the models say no but I'll be pressing f5 on the met eireann radar once or twice this weekend I suspect. MT on another forum has posted his view that if you have sufficiently cold uppers then showers will happen - instability or not.

After that there is an increasing risk of a Northerly in 10 days time. The charts of yesterday showing warmth at the start of March are gone for now....

I believe he's right, but a little misguided. There is indeed a good chance of wintry showers, of graupel and snizzle and snow with tiny flakes etc. Not the sort of stuff that accumulates very well.

ninebeanrows

The east coast getting sufficiently cold uppers is still up for debate, we need -8c 850s over the Irish Sea. If we get that we have a chance of something.

leahyl

I'm actually looking forward to some nice dry weather now - means I can go out and get a bit of exercise and I can't make excuses anymore what with it getting brighter in the evenings also:pac:

power101

Further Upgrade on GFS rolling out now.

At 72 hours there are widespread -8 uppers all over the east of the country and 80% of the country is covered by at least -6 uppers. Massive move west by the cold air.

The line of -8 uppers was touching the south east coast. Now its well into Limerick.

72 hours no longer FI!!!!

patneve2

Not the worst GFS 12z, at this stage some light wintry showers possible on E coast over the weekend

snowstorm445

A better run from th GFS. Cold uppers of -8C are further west and there seems to be the potential for some precipitation to reach parts of the East Coast and clipping parts of the South Coast. This is backed up by the UKMO (which has the cold pool right over us) but keeps us dry.

The High is still there into next week, but the cold pool is gone by that stage.

Red Pepper

I was watching the TG4 weather news just now (mainly because the presenter is hot!) and they seemed to be suggesting that the temperatures would be much higher in the SW of the country for the next few days. For example when Offaly was 1C, Cork/Kerry/Limerick were 5C or 6C. The minus temps even at night seemed to avoid the SW region. Is that correct? I was hoping for ice in the Kerry mountains.

downwiththatsor

Red Pepper wrote: »

I was watching the TG4 weather news just now (mainly because the presenter is hot!) and they seemed to be suggesting that the temperatures would be much higher in the SW of the country for the next few days. For example when Offaly was 1C, Cork/Kerry/Limerick were 5C or 6C. The minus temps even at night seemed to avoid the SW region. Is that correct? I was hoping for ice in the Kerry mountains.

Looks like a hard frost Friday night to Monday night but higher elevations may have it on nights before then http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130220/12/66/ukmintemp.png

Elmer Blooker

it hasn't gone away you know, this northerly is still showing up in FI
spring can wait until after the equinox as far as I'm concerned!

Wicklow Weather

Its a long way off but so was the current cold spell when it showed up on models 10 days ago. Interesting model watching over the coming 7 days.

whitebriar

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

it hasn't gone away you know, this northerly is still showing up in FI
spring can wait until after the equinox as far as I'm concerned!

If that were to verify,all areas would see the white stuff at times.And as that low moved south,a northeasterly would be packing the showers in from Louth to Waterford.

ninebeanrows

GFS 18z at 180hrs.

We seem like we are getting prepped for some sort of northerly incursion towards Day 10.

Although there is a real slab of frigid cold over Greenland, getting a real strong Heights there will be a struggle.

ninebeanrows

To those March doubters, have some of this
Excellant chart with sub -10c 850hPa temps pushing south from a really cold Greenland.

Good incremental changes, the neg NAO is still a bit too west based at the presente indicators but we are moving in the right direction towards a real sharp northerly incursion early March.

finnharpsboy

light snow falling here now

snaps

The Ecm has it cold from saturday onwards (a week away), but Gfs doesnt seem to bothered at all about it.

Elmer Blooker

snaps wrote: »

The Ecm has it cold from saturday onwards (a week away), but Gfs doesnt seem to bothered at all about it.

not the 12z GFS, it goes bananas in FI. - we're under attack from the north AND east in this chart. It's always FI isn't it.

bb1234567

Heavy snow has just stopped in d6, some snow lying on bushes, grass, cars and rooves , 1C outside at present

Tom Cruises Left Nut

ECM at 192

Elmer Blooker

looking at the charts for early next week reminds me of this.......not saying it will happen but ............
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax120s.gif?23-12

Oneiric 3

Last night of this season thank God and I think it is safe to say it is yet another one down the pan. Full extent of anything remotely exciting this season was an all too brief moderate windy spell at the end of January. Think it is time to consign this God awful winter to the bin and start looking forward to some nice spring warmth.

Winter 2012/2013, I sentence thee to hell. G'luck.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0JvF9vpqx8

Elmer Blooker

I'm dreaming of a white Paddy's day!!
These cold charts are not going away.
-3c at Dublin Airport at the moment which, I think is lower than any temp during Dec, Jan and Feb so spring has definitely arrived.