Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

DOCARCH

only one wrote: »

Thundersnow in Waterford at the moment

Somehow I doubt that. :rolleyes: I assume you have no pictures? Camera broken?

But, there is sleet being reported at the moment (at 0900) at Loch Glascarnoch in Scotland at 3c.

Loughc

Funniest weather thread ever!

Forgive my ignorance I'm new to the Weather forum here, just how far ahead can the weather be predicted? As in an actual scientific prediction and not in a groundhog kind of way! :pac:

DOCARCH

lockie1983 wrote: »

....how far ahead can the weather be predicted? As in an actual scientific prediction

2 to 3 days I would suggest, generally, to a max of maybe 5 days. Having said that, when weather is more turbulant it can be hard to get an accurate forecast for the next 24 hours! Forecast for weather trends maybe out to 10 days.

Loughc

DOCARCH wrote: »

2 to 3 days I would suggest, to a max of maybe 5 days. Forecast for weather trends maybe out to 10 days.

Thank you, this leads to my next question, how are people predicting the weather for winter now?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

lockie1983 wrote: »

Thank you, this leads to my next question, how are people predicting the weather for winter now?

Hope :pac:

DOCARCH

Simply guessing!

Ah, it's a bit more scientific than that looking at historical data, long term trends, etc., etc., but long range forecasts tend to have little detail/specifics and lots of generality and tend to be quite hit and miss.

Because of that, you will not see Met Eireann issue any long term forecasts (they never have) and I think the UK Met Office have given up issuing these now.

Iancar29

DOCARCH wrote: »

Simply guessing!

Ah, it's a bit more scientific than that looking at historical data, long term trends, etc., etc., but long range forecasts tend to have little detail/specifics and lots of generality and tend to be quite hit and miss.

Because of that, you will not see Met Eireann issue any long term forecasts (they never have) and I think the UK Met Office have given up issuing these now.

The UK Met Office have a whole team for long range trends and forecasts, their new model wasn't brought online for no reason. But as many know they don't do public LRFs anymore due to their... not so good summer forecast a few years back . BUt ye they still issue them to the government . Its a whole different form of forecasting .

As i said before, the majority of the regulars here know we shouldn't be taking any forecasts seriously yet as its still not even autumn in Meteorological terms! But yes , its good fun imo showing random charts and thinking of the effects it would bring to us. Snow is something that most if not all of us enjoyed as kids and the joy and memories stays with us. * Raises hand * Im for one am still a kid at heart!


But please folks... just no more Mark Vogan or whoever! , If they dont have a degree in Meteorology or an associated degree , i dont want to hear from them to be honest. :rolleyes:


As for my posts of the CFS charts , I do hope people take them also with a nice pinch of GRIT ... but again, i think its part of the fun , especially in times of such BORING weather to look at them for some dreaming material ha :pac:

Heres one main example of a whole team/site for seasonal /climate predictions...

NOAA
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/


And heres something that i would actually be interested in going to , something from an actual Met Office scientist ..
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2012/cold-comfort



Now Back to the present and more on topic...

Lovely fresh morning here with a real feel temp of around 7C with the nice NW breeze. Looks like a slight warm up for the rest of the Week with another pool of cool air over the country next week again.




One to watch for the end of this week and into next is a low moving up from the South and then stalling over the Uk bringing a number of bands of rain across the country.

Missymoohaa

only one wrote: »

Thundersnow in Waterford at the moment

Please explain this wonderful term

tylercollins

Missymoohaa wrote: »

Please explain this wonderful term

thunder & snow :pac: .

SunnyDub1

judging by the huge dip in temperatures the past few days I say we are in for a cold winter.

mcriot29

SunnyDub1 wrote: »

judging by the huge dip in temperatures the past few days I say we are in for a cold winter.

A guy i know works in uk met ,he said signs are 75% in favour of a very cold winter

delw

SunnyDub1 wrote: »

judging by the huge dip in temperatures the past few days I say hopecast we are in for a cold winter.

FYP

mcriot29

delw wrote: »

SunnyDub1 wrote: »

judging by the huge dip in temperatures the past few days I say hopecast we are in for a cold winter.

FYP

I had a bad feeling this time last year of a mild winter ahead reason ,in little ice age there was never 3 cold ones togather, there was 2 then a very mild one then a really cold one , i feel and hope we could be in for a epic winter this year.
We need some if the white stuff to cheer us all up esp with the budget on the way

IrishGurll

I don't understand why people want to close this , I think we all know that these predictions are just guesses , but it's still fun to look at them and to wonder about whats ahead , I think I'd cry if the forum was closed I would not know what to do with my day :L

mike65

Sorry if this is a repost, James Madden is now charging for Winter 2013

http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Premium_Forecast.html

anyone bought a copy?

Fully Established

An absoloute waste of money , i wonder how many times this year he will change his forecast.

Tindie

I just heard it snowed in UK today! don't get to exited cause it snowed in CairngormMtn.

Nice to to see the white stuff,

H2UMrsRobinson

It's a bit nippy tonight so I'm wearing my xmas jama's. The slogan says "let it snow" and there are also 3 scottie dogs wearing tartan "wiscots". This is my sole contribution to this thread until it actually starts snowing. Goodnight.

Iancar29

Great piece by Meteorologist Matt Hugo on his thoughts an analysis of the Winter ahead. Goes through some of the main factors which can signal cold setups in the long term.

http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2012/09/18/winter-20122013-thoughts-analysis/

Lets just hope the daily mail and so fort dont run this on the front page 2moro... :rolleyes:

davidsr20

Has mt any taughts on this winter does anyone know?

Lucreto

davidsr20 wrote: »

Has mt any taughts on this winter does anyone know?

Way too early to tell even for MT to post his thoughts. Last year it was the middle of October before he said anything.

I am waiting for Michael Gallagher's winter forecast as well and that will be October as well.

Conrach

Tindie wrote: »

I just heard it snowed in UK today! don't get to exited cause it snowed in CairngormMtn.

Nice to to see the white stuff,

Funny that, I was on the phone to my mother in law on Friday. She lives in the Cairngorms. She said that it had gotten very cold and she could 'smell' snow. I rolled my eyes and passed no remarks.
On Saturday I saw a tweet from Netweather saying Ben Nevis had had it's 1st snow. Raised my eyebrows but Nevis is along way away from my MIL.

So there you go...She did smell snow.

leahyl

Iancar29 wrote: »

Great piece by Meteorologist Matt Hugo on his thoughts an analysis of the Winter ahead. Goes through some of the main factors which can signal cold setups in the long term.

http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2012/09/18/winter-20122013-thoughts-analysis/

Lets just hope the daily mail and so fort dont run this on the front page 2moro... :rolleyes:

I see we have been mentioned in the comments below the article!:rolleyes:

gbee

lockie1983 wrote: »

Thank you, this leads to my next question, how are people predicting the weather for winter now?

It's based on models and trends, the basic principal is that a set of figures predicts a certain result at a ferocity level if mathematically carried froward with no change in the inputs.

For instance, many ferocious storms are forecast for Ireland but historic data shows that we generally don't get the severe impacts and regular blocking features saps these storms as they approach and a powerful event can be killed in as little as three hours.

A classic example is Hurricane Dan in the Gulf of Mexico a couple of years ago, where normally a powerful storm would have ripped the land apart, because of an unusual blocking high the hurricane on radar looked like it hit a shield and completely dissipated in minutes.

I generally say that the long term models are not wrong in their general prediction, if severe weather then bad or poor weather still arrives, it is rarely the opposite.

We also have weather trends and Ireland in the winter 2011/12 was poised to be in an Arctic freeze, it was overhead waiting to descend, the Jet Stream and the Azores High somewhat unusual positioning conspired to give us a near tropical winter.

DOCARCH

leahyl wrote: »

I see we have been mentioned in the comments below the article!:rolleyes:

LOL

Loughc

leahyl wrote: »

I see we have been mentioned in the comments below the article!:rolleyes:

Damn you rickdangerous!! Damn you to hell, which will freeze over according to my winter prediction!! :pac:

Sponge Bob

I think we should lock this up like Redsunset suggested, at least until Michael Gallagher ( or Conrachs mother in law in Scotland) gives more, ahem, guidance.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I think we should lock this up like Redsunset suggested, at least until Michael Gallagher ( or Conrachs mother in law in Scotland) gives more, ahem, guidance.

Not at all, sure people don't have to read it until they are ready

srocliffe

t|nt|n wrote: »

Not at all, sure people don't have to read it until they are ready

Exactly, those that don't want to discuss winter yet can just stay out of the thread and leave us to it :-)

There have been more thumbs up to posts saying don't close it that the original post asking should we close it

odyboody

Its OK to have a thread like this if it were only people with some understanding of the weather that were reading it. The problems occur when Joe Soap from "Exaggerate Daily" comes on, has a little read and next thing we have "Day After Tomorrow On The Way".:rolleyes: