Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Strangegravy

Keep this thread for general thoughts and observations, and as we get into the colder season have a more detailed model and chart discussion thread. Worked in the past.

mcriot29

Strangegravy wrote: »

Keep this thread for general thoughts and observations, and as we get into the colder season have a more detailed model and chart discussion thread. Worked in the past.

Jez it like winter out today
Hope it like this come nov
Piers going for epic winter core of cold over ire and uk
Joe b says the same
Mark vogan bell end says a very cold winter
Madman well hes just mad
The postman forecast is out in oct so lets see what he has to say

IrishGurll

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/uknews/9183200/Winter-weather-returns-as-snow-falls-in-Scotland-and-northern-England.html

Calibos

Wow, I get to start my moaning early this year!!

Ahem [Cough]

Its not fair!! In the middle of December 2010 during the greatest Freeze/snow event in a generation, my part of Bray took weeks to accumulate 6 inches of snow and bloody Northern England gets 6 inches in 4 hours in the middle of September!! Shouldn't those Giant Oil Rigs be casting some kind of snow shadow??

mcriot29

Calibos wrote: »

Wow, I get to start my moaning early this year!!

Ahem [Cough]

Its not fair!! In the middle of December 2010 during the greatest Freeze/snow event in a generation, my part of Bray took weeks to accumulate 6 inches of snow and bloody Northern England gets 6 inches in 4 hours in the middle of September!! Shouldn't those Giant Oil Rigs be casting some kind of snow shadow??

Move to north dub we had far more

Governer

Has anyone seen corbyn's oct forecast? supposed to be dramatic.
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=488&c=5
See comments at bottom.

gothwalk

Calibos wrote: »

Northern England gets 6 inches in 4 hours in the middle of September!!

Aren't those pictures from last April or so?

Tabnabs

For anyone who had forgotton what the white stuff looks like, an early reminder for residents in southern Norway today.


http://www.yr.no/nyheter/1.8329240

15cm fell early this morning, very early in the year for them and caught many by surprise.

Iancar29

Anyone here to recall this?...

mrweatherman

According to met eireann its meant to turn much "cooler" next week below norm for time of year, then again all summer has been few oC below norm so might be sign of things to come, end of next month will tell a lot

mcriot29

Tabnabs wrote: »

For anyone who had forgotton what the white stuff looks like, an early reminder for residents in southern Norway today.


http://www.yr.no/nyheter/1.8329240

15cm fell early this morning, very early in the year for them and caught many by surprise.

There been no snow yet in norway infact not even in north norway

Missymoohaa

mcriot29 wrote: »

There been no snow yet in norway infact not even in north norway

Yep appears your are correct in your correction, weather report for Oslo today below:cool:

http://www.weathercity.com/no/oslo/

Caught Out, well done Poirot!!!:D

mcriot29

Missymoohaa wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

There been no snow yet in norway infact not even in north norway

Yep appears your are correct in your correction, weather report for Oslo today below:cool:

http://www.weathercity.com/no/oslo/

Caught Out, well done Poirot!!!:D

Lol but check out what iceland got 3 foot of are white friend
http://www.icelandreview.com/icelandreview/daily_news/?cat_id=29314&ew_0_a_id=393546

Elmer Blooker

Iancar29 wrote: »

Anyone here to recall this?...

There was another decent fall at the end of Feb that winter and it wasn't to snow properly for another eight years - not until Feb '09.
If the same happens we won't see another snowfall until 2018 !! :eek:

Aiel

Haha,how many members of this forum would be in a Physc Ward if there was no snow till 2018:).

mcriot29

Aiel wrote: »

Haha,how many members of this forum would be in a Physc Ward if there was no snow till 2018:).

Well last year when the freeze stpped in irish sea i went to poland to get my snow fix was great, -25 and big snow storms

M.T. Cranium

I'm studying the situation and my research model shows a trend of milder than normal in Dec-Jan and colder in Feb but with the unusual ice-free situation north of Russia the other guidance may have to be tossed.

Last winter we have to be aware that Ireland's lack of winter weather was not attached to a regional trend but actually more of a fluky anomaly from the regional pattern which included some epochal cold further east. So even if this winter is an approximate reload of last winter it's no guarantee of a mild and snow-free pattern reloading across Ireland, you would only need a very slight adjustment of that pattern to change anomalies drastically.

Will have my annual stab at a seasonal forecast in mid-October but as always this is a transparent process, what I look at can be summed up as the analogues for all similar set-ups in terms of a postulated solar system magnetic field variation and then a forecast is deduced from those signals. Last winter tended to verify worse as you went west across the UK (where the data set is located, I don't have any historical records on my computer system for Ireland but I have 350 years of UK records), and although I don't publish forecasts for Europe that would have been quite accurate assuming the same signals. This situation was unusual relative to previous winters where the normal climate factors accounted for differences regionally, whereas last winter the regional differences were vastly amplified (you may recall eastern England had two weeks of freezing weather and a major snowstorm in early Feb) showing the need to get some Irish data assembled to check analogues for such signals. I'm working on that at least in terms of being able to look at specific years in a data set but to be honest the analogues used last winter did not show a similar trend, they had more wintry conditions across all of the UK and from what I can see into Ireland as well, so I suppose that opens the door to a consideration of climate change issues warping the process as well. (a warmer Atlantic, more ice free arctic etc eroding patterns that are otherwise still naturally occurring?) ... I would love to say there was vast progress being made but in fact it seems incremental and quite fragile to singularities such as this winter may produce with the unusual arctic situation. The recent 2007-08 case of minimal ice cover seemed to favour eastern Asia and eastern North America for a rebound effect, can't say that 2007-08 was a particularly cold or snowy winter anywhere in western Europe. It looked good briefly around New Years but then went into a nasty fast zonal conveyor belt of mild followed by a bland flabby block in February. So if you do hear about how the arctic open water is going to set Europe back into the late ice age, ask about that.

weathermaiden

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I'm studying the situation and my research model shows a trend of milder than normal in Dec-Jan and colder in Feb but with the unusual ice-free situation north of Russia the other guidance may have to be tossed.

jimmy.d

A new study led by the Georgia Institute of Technology provides further evidence of a relationship between melting ice in the Arctic regions and widespread cold outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere. The study's findings could be used to improve seasonal forecasting of snow and temperature anomalies across northern continents.
Since the level of Arctic sea ice set a new record low in 2007, significantly above-normal winter snow cover has been seen in large parts of the northern United States, northwestern and central Europe, and northern and central China. During the winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011, the Northern Hemisphere measured its second and third largest snow cover levels on record.
"Our study demonstrates that the decrease in Arctic sea ice area is linked to changes in the winter Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation," said Judith Curry, chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech. "The circulation changes result in more frequent episodes of atmospheric blocking patterns, which lead to increased cold surges and snow over large parts of the northern continents."
The study was published on Feb. 27, 2012 in the online early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
In this study, scientists from Georgia Tech, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Columbia University expanded on previous research by combining observational data and model simulations to explore the link between unusually large snowfall amounts in the Northern Hemisphere in recent winters and diminishing Arctic sea ice.
The researchers analyzed observational data collected between 1979 and 2010 and found that a decrease in autumn Arctic sea ice of 1 million square kilometers -- the size of the surface area of Egypt -- corresponded to significantly above-normal winter snow cover in large parts of the northern United States, northwestern and central Europe, and northern and central China.
The analysis revealed two major factors that could be contributing to the unusually large snowfall in recent winters -- changes in atmospheric circulation and changes in atmospheric water vapor content -- which are both linked to diminishing Arctic sea ice. Strong warming in the Arctic through the late summer and autumn appears to be enhancing the melting of sea ice.
"We think the recent snowy winters could be caused by the retreating Arctic ice altering atmospheric circulation patterns by weakening westerly winds, increasing the amplitude of the jet stream and increasing the amount of moisture in the atmosphere," explained Jiping Liu, a senior research scientist in the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at Georgia Tech. "These pattern changes enhance blocking patterns that favor more frequent movement of cold air masses to middle and lower latitudes, leading to increased heavy snowfall in Europe and the Northeast and Midwest regions of the United States."
Diminishing Arctic sea ice can cause changes in atmospheric circulation that lead to a circulation pattern that is different than the "negative phase" of the Arctic Oscillation.
In addition to analyzing observational data, the researchers also assessed the impact of the diminishing Arctic sea ice on atmospheric circulation by comparing the results of model simulations run with different sea ice distribution. They ran one experiment that assumed seasonally varying Arctic sea ice and utilized sea ice concentration data collected between 1979 and 2010. Another simulation incorporated prescribed sea ice loss in autumn and winter based on satellite-derived Arctic sea ice concentrations.
The simulations showed that diminishing Arctic sea ice induced a significant surface warming in the Arctic Ocean and Greenland/northeastern Canada, and cooling over northern North America, Europe, Siberia and eastern Asia. The models also showed above-normal winter snowfall in large parts of the northern United States, central Europe, and northern and central China.
The consistent relationships seen in the model simulations and observational data illustrate that the rapid loss of sea ice in summer and delayed recovery of sea ice in autumn modulates snow cover, winter temperature and the frequency of cold air outbreaks in northern mid-latitudes.
Huijun Wang and Mirong Song of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics and Radley Horton from the Columbia University Center for Climate Systems Research also contributed to this work.
This project was supported by the NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study and the National Science Foundation (NSF) (Award No. ANT-0838920).

mcriot29

http://www.weather.com/news/sea-ice-potential-20120913

Iancar29

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=80869331&postcount=12



.....

Redsunset

Just looking back though old threads and this one had over a million views in only 10 days

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056120994

1,130,996 views

Baibin Sneachta

Nadine next Thursday ? Scary wind event it it were to follow through :eek:. December though and I'd doubt any of us would want to see cold or snow for a long time again :D:D http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2012/09/20/basis18/euro/prec/12092706_2018.gif
http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2012/09/20/basis18/euro/prec/12092712_2018.gif
Tuesday to Thursday next week in December - February would be a \/ery exciting time indeed :rolleyes:

davidsr20

weathermaiden wrote: »

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I'm studying the situation and my research model shows a trend of milder than normal in Dec-Jan and colder in Feb but with the unusual ice-free situation north of Russia the other guidance may have to be tossed.

Lucreto

Redsunset wrote: »

Just looking back though old threads and this one had over a million views in only 10 days

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056120994

1,130,996 views

I wish I was on the here why this happened. It would have made it more exciting. Well maybe this year.:D

Very early to be looking at this yet but if we do get another snow event this year do you think the government and local councils would be able to handle it?

123 LC

Was there any thread in 2010 where people posted pics of the snow?

Redsunset

123 LC wrote: »

Was there any thread in 2010 where people posted pics of the snow?

There are loads of pics in weather picture forum. Go back to around 8, 9, 10 pages and there they are.

Click on link near top of page in main weather forum to access these as it's a sub folder.

bazzare

if this is true we could be in for the worst winter of all time !

thoughts ?

weisses

Why do you think it will be unprecedented ?

ninebeanrows

A recent research article links arctic sea ice depletion to increased heavy snowfalls in our climate region.

http://www.pnas.org/content/109/11/4074.full.pdf+html

Key:

The regression map between sea ice
area and sea level pressure (SLP) reveals that following anomalously
low ice coverage in autumn, the winter SLP is substantially
higher over the Arctic Ocean, the northern Atlantic, and much of
high-latitude continents, which is compensated by lower SLP in
midlatitudes (Fig. 2A).