Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

slowburner

weisses wrote: »

Why do you think it will be unprecedented ?

Nasa Images

Tabnabs

mcriot29 wrote: »

There been no snow yet in norway infact not even in north norway

I've been seeing photos of the first snow since the beginning of the month. Here's a webcam showing plenty has arrived already in southern Norway

http://www.bt.no/kamera/videokamera/Finse-stasjon-2479956.html?xtor=AD-13

MiNdGaM3

It is already an unprecedented ice melt, for volume, extent and area.

But nothing guarantees us a cold winter. While the additional heat release from the Arctic ocean may result in a reduced thermal gradient and a slower more meridional jet stream, this is still just one of numerous factors that affect our weather.
The chances of severe cold are looking quite good at the moment, with most indicators looking favourable, but a lot can change between now and December.

pauldry

i think we will get a cold October but then just a normal Winter. Think when there is open water up there it bends the jetstream more ,

just an opinion

Aiel

Here we go with another "Will it snow this Winter" thread but under a different name:(.

weisses

slowburner wrote: »

Nasa Images

That's a process of 33 years ... I don't understand by looking at those pictures that this winter will be a "unprecedented one"

MiNdGaM3

weisses wrote: »

That's a process of 33 years ... I don't understand by looking at those pictures that this winter will be a "unprecedented one"

The link between sea ice and our winters comes from the summer melt.
When more of the ice melts, the Arctic ocean warms up rapidly in 24 hours daylight. That warmth gets released into the atmosphere during the Autumn and early winter causing huge positive temperature anomalies across the Arctic.
That has a lot of knock on effects, influencing the weather across the mid-latitudes.
I can send you some published papers on it if you like?

Sponge Bob

Aiel wrote: »

Here we go with another "Will it snow this Winter" thread but under a different name:(.

It is a 'where will it snow this winter thread' in all fairness. :cool:

Redsunset

Threads merged.

No need to have separate thread when it's all about the upcoming winter anyway.

maquiladora

weisses wrote: »

That's a process of 33 years ... I don't understand by looking at those pictures that this winter will be a "unprecedented one"

It's unprecedented for at least that long. (And thats from last year, not even including the further drop from this season)

But it's important to remember that doesn't mean we will have a cold/snowy winter. There are a lot of things that need to be in place for us to get that type of situation (stratosphere temps etc.) It's just something that may help it happen, or it may be overridden by other factors that are unfavorable to us.

Now I have to back out, I said I'd stay out of this thread until October. :P

mcriot29

Met uk have warned there staff and goverment that 1962 63 event is going to happen , iv heard this from diff forums now

Redsunset

mcriot29 wrote: »

Met uk have warned there staff and goverment that 1962 63 event is going to happen , iv heard this from diff forums now

Could you be so kind and provide links to these claims please.

mike65

People really need to stay off the whacky message boards.

mrweatherman

Can someone be real kind and remind me what type of winter we had in 62-63 cause well aint been around that long

Iancar29

mcriot29 wrote: »

Met uk have warned there staff and goverment that 1962 63 event is going to happen , iv heard this from diff forums now

:rolleyes:

Sponge Bob

That is not, as I understand, the original graph including the 95% Uncertainty Bit. Never mind a link.

Here is a link to a copy of the original followed by the graph (below).

There are other graphs in that link too. Kinnards is by far the most extreme.

maquiladora wrote: »

It's unprecedented for at least that long. (And thats from last year, not even including the further drop from this season)

Marcin_diy

http://www.tvnmeteo.pl/informacje/polska,28/23-cm-bialego-puchu-i-5-st-c-na-kasprowym,58675,1,0.html

Southern Poland today ( mountains) - 23cm of snow and -5*C

I was in north Poland 2 weeks ago it was +30*C.

Fully Established

mrweatherman wrote: »

Can someone be real kind and remind me what type of winter we had in 62-63 cause well aint been around that long

http://www.irishidentity.com/extras/weather/stories/196263.htm

mrweatherman

If the british met claim bad winter then it will be 80% chance it will be very mild wet and god dame boring like last year. If it did snow here in cork we are in trouble cause council have stated they have redirect gritting funding else where and hope it will be mild

mrweatherman

according to british met office meant to get far bit colder next week snow to low levels scotland and north england

IrishGurll

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/347447/Autumn-frost-to-set-in-as-we-bid-farewell-to-the-summer

Su Campu

mrweatherman wrote: »

according to british met office meant to get far bit colder next week snow to low levels scotland and north england

Link?

M.T. Cranium

The theory about the "rebound effect" from open water in the arctic to severe winter is based on the idea that the open water will generate early and heavier snow cover in the subarctic, and that will lead to greater frequency of cold arctic highs that can begin to form early and thus become more massive. This certainly seemed to happen in 2007-08 but the main recipients were China and New Brunswick-New England-Quebec regions. Other climate regions had less severe winters and the ice anomaly at present is not vastly different from this time in autumn 2007 except that the open water is further north on the European side of Russia and not quite as far north on the Siberian side (in 2007 I remember noting an extreme of 84N at 150E).

Will this slight tilt of the anomaly towards Europe stack the deck of rebound effects towards northwest Russia and Scandinavia? That's the question I am pondering in trying to assess whether the other trends will get scrambled or perhaps reinforced.

I had a laugh at the picture posted with my mild Dec-Jan comments, but note that cold Feb is very 1947-like so that, if the mild trend was muted you could include that winter as a possible analogue. Also 1894-95 appears in the analogue set and that had some very severe cold in Feb 1895.

For these reasons I am probably going to be saying "no worse than average and with potential for a severe outcome" because when it comes to winter cold and snow, just one month out of three can be very disruptive (think of 2010-11 when the winter was basically done by 6 Jan if not 27 Dec).

Also, this buzz about the open water anomaly is a bit of a distraction, we've been dealing with these anomalies for over a decade now to some extent and we've still seen a wide range of winter outcomes. And there were intervals with five or six bland or mild winters in succession back in the 19th century when ice was much further south than nowadays. So the correlations are rather like solar activity correlations, interesting, but nearly useless for seasonal forecasting.

Su Campu

Snow has already arrived in northern Siberia bordering the East Siberian Sea, with up to 18 cm lying snow reported today.

Iancar29

Might get up just before sunrise to walk the dog! ... Jealous of those in the below freezing region!

M.T. Cranium

This is my preliminary forecast for the U.K. and I have no reason to suspect that the pattern would be radically different for Ireland so I have just changed some wording here to make this relevant to Ireland ...

Winter 2012-13 Forecast Summary


Based on my usual methodology and a consideration of the unusual ice-free anomaly expected to start the season, the following is my expected temperature and precipitation trend for DEC-JAN-FEB (following a November with expected mild temperatures 1-2 C deg above average, and near normal in precip ... October expected to be near normal for temperature and somewhat on the wet side of normal).



DECEMBER looks fairly close to normal (on the whole) with a roughly equal mixture of mild and cold days. There may be one relatively severe cold spell of 2-4 days around the middle of the month towards the 20th. This might not produce much snow as it could be a shallow incursion but some snow would be likely given the temperature anomalies indicating below zero temperatures briefly. Before that, the period 7th to 13th is expected to be quite mild (highs could reach 11-13 C), and the run up to Christmas increasingly mild with rain replacing any earlier sleet or snow in most areas but there would be a better chance for snow in north-central parts of Britain around Christmas. A stormy interval may develop just around or after Christmas Day. Numerical index values suggest a windy day on the 26th so there's one specific daily forecast to test out (I prefer to be more general but what the heck).


JANUARY looks relatively mild but with severe cold forming gradually off to the north and east of Ireland and the U.K., some intervals of modified cold could intrude, perhaps less forcefully in south and west regions of Ireland. The month may also become rather stormy at times especially in periods around the 10th and 25th. Some damaging winds would not surprise me given the developing thermal gradient across the Atlantic and a likely very strong zonal jet stream at times. A trend to much colder weather getting closer to Britain at least is likely near the end of the month although mild weather could hold on in Ireland and the southwest parts of England.


FEBRUARY is expected to be much colder than average by 1.5 to 3.5 degrees with considerable snow or sleet and frequent easterly winds. This will develop because of massive blocking to the north of Ireland and the U.K. extending from Iceland to Scandinavia. There is some indication of a very severe period of wintry weather. This severe cold may last some time beyond the end of the month.

I may update this seasonal forecast if I have any further results from ongoing research, but this is the output of the current research model with some consideration given to the ice anomaly. I suspect it will intensify the pattern that would have existed otherwise, so I have tended to amplify the numerical output on either side of normal. Once severe cold is established over snow cover it is hard to dislodge during the depth of winter, but would also warn that February is the least reliable of the three monthly forecasts not only because it's further out but also because it is more anomalous.

Red Star Bellend

Definitely felt the cold outside tonight for the first time in a while.

Bigus

Red Star Bellend wrote: »

Definitely felt the cold outside tonight for the first time in a while.

After M.T Craniums post is this called

juxtaposition or

serendipity ,

or is it the met office installing a window ?:D

Iancar29

Oh hello there Mr FI

konman

Iancar29 wrote: »

Oh hello there Mr FI

link isnt displaying, any chance you could re-post?