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Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)
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M.T. Cranium wrote: »This is my preliminary forecast for the U.K. and I have no reason to suspect that the pattern would be radically different for Ireland so I have just changed some wording here to make this relevant to Ireland ...
Winter 2012-13 Forecast Summary
Based on my usual methodology and a consideration of the unusual ice-free anomaly expected to start the season, the following is my expected temperature and precipitation trend for DEC-JAN-FEB (following a November with expected mild temperatures 1-2 C deg above average, and near normal in precip ... October expected to be near normal for temperature and somewhat on the wet side of normal).
DECEMBER looks fairly close to normal (on the whole) with a roughly equal mixture of mild and cold days. There may be one relatively severe cold spell of 2-4 days around the middle of the month towards the 20th. This might not produce much snow as it could be a shallow incursion but some snow would be likely given the temperature anomalies indicating below zero temperatures briefly. Before that, the period 7th to 13th is expected to be quite mild (highs could reach 11-13 C), and the run up to Christmas increasingly mild with rain replacing any earlier sleet or snow in most areas but there would be a better chance for snow in north-central parts of Britain around Christmas. A stormy interval may develop just around or after Christmas Day. Numerical index values suggest a windy day on the 26th so there's one specific daily forecast to test out (I prefer to be more general but what the heck).
JANUARY looks relatively mild but with severe cold forming gradually off to the north and east of Ireland and the U.K., some intervals of modified cold could intrude, perhaps less forcefully in south and west regions of Ireland. The month may also become rather stormy at times especially in periods around the 10th and 25th. Some damaging winds would not surprise me given the developing thermal gradient across the Atlantic and a likely very strong zonal jet stream at times. A trend to much colder weather getting closer to Britain at least is likely near the end of the month although mild weather could hold on in Ireland and the southwest parts of England.
FEBRUARY is expected to be much colder than average by 1.5 to 3.5 degrees with considerable snow or sleet and frequent easterly winds. This will develop because of massive blocking to the north of Ireland and the U.K. extending from Iceland to Scandinavia. There is some indication of a very severe period of wintry weather. This severe cold may last some time beyond the end of the month.
I may update this seasonal forecast if I have any further results from ongoing research, but this is the output of the current research model with some consideration given to the ice anomaly. I suspect it will intensify the pattern that would have existed otherwise, so I have tended to amplify the numerical output on either side of normal. Once severe cold is established over snow cover it is hard to dislodge during the depth of winter, but would also warn that February is the least reliable of the three monthly forecasts not only because it's further out but also because it is more anomalous.
Thank you for the update MT - quite interesting to hear the way you think the winter weather will pan out with a mild Dec and Jan followed by a potentially very cold February. However it should be remembered that in Ireland, February is usually our coldest month.
I undertstand this is just a preliminary forecast MT however when do you hope to have your official Ireland Winter Forecast 2012/2013 out? Would we be looking towards the middle of October?
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link isnt displaying, any chance you could re-post?
Sorry , fixed.. forgot to keep the attachment in the post.
But of course... it was swiftly removed on the 12z run ha :rolleyes:
Still though , was nice to see a decent Northerly head down .
Wow i sure do like the October CFS run!
Met Office monthly outlook onto something here?
Brb...... off to build my ramp!!! :pac:0 -
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I don't think the date really matters.
In general though, the author didn't look at a whole lot of variables. What he did look at, he didn't look at many sources of data or do much analysis.
Overall, I'd say that piece is too simplistic and overlooks way to many things to come to the conclusions that it does.
Yes I agree , but from the date ( which we remember was a crappy mild and wet winter period ) , imo i think its like the chill this week where papers started the winter headlines , just the other way around .
Like here... i think Gavin P gives an nice detailed account of what HE THINKS the winter may be like and more importantly , why...
A nicely put together video i think .
Brings in the Met Enesmble Model that and others shockingly enough like the CFS hinting Blocking patterns breaking down the dreaded zonal flow.0 -
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLPR7zlR0NQ
This discussion has been closed.
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