Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Redsunset

pompeyboi wrote: »

So is it Gunna snow? what do people think? i wanna know!!!!

Snowmaker

Just for that Redsunset.... I'm 'ramping' up production....

Redsunset

Ya may make loads cause there'll be many folk in here at their wits end if nothing comes to fruit. The devastation will be unbearable.;)

odyboody

Snowmaker wrote: »

Just for that Redsunset.... I'm 'ramping' up production....

Dont want any of that thanks.
Looks like anti-snow to me.(salt)

Snowmaker

odyboody wrote: »

Dont want any of that thanks.
Looks like anti-snow to me.(salt)

Nope, it's fine powdery white snow, the stuff dreams are made of, the promised land, that magical place where good boardsies go when they die...

As for Redsunset... well, that's a cross I have to bear.

Actually, based on the summer, just my thoughts... not much snow this winter, but I do think it will be quite dry and very cold.

Wolfe_IRE

The latest NAO output suggests that our weather will become somewhat more settled for a time from around the middle of the first week of October. This is signified by the neutral phase that has been hinted in recent days and again in today's output (See below), as well as in all main models showing high pressure building from the west.




Meanwhile, there is no signs of significantly cooler air spilling south from the Arctic in the next 7-14 days as seen in the latest AO output. Temperatures in fact will climb to average or slightly above average levels for the time of year this coming weekend.

munsterlegend

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Good to see you back Wolfe.

Iancar29

munsterlegend wrote: »

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Good to see you back Wolfe.

+1 ....

Minister

Iancar29 wrote: »

munsterlegend wrote: »

+1 ....

Ditto

Smidge

Iancar29 wrote: »

I dunno where you have been ... we all no we only get 2 days of summer in Ireland... thats enough for me... :rolleyes:


... I want to see my Dog as happy as this again...

Honest to God my husky HATES the snow

Sits at the patio door and goes "meh, knock yourselves out making snowballs. I'll keep my coat dry"

Rebelbrowser

Great to see you back Wolf Ire. I attribute the lack of snow last year directly to your absence......

Calibos

Smidge wrote: »

Honest to God my husky HATES the snow

Sits at the patio door and goes "meh, knock yourselves out making snowballs. I'll keep my coat dry"

He was probably saying to himself, "I'll be the judge of what should be 'my element'...."

mcriot29

I see scotland woke up to the white stuff but it was snowjoke
But foam have a look frist video
http://m.youtube.com/?reload=7&rdm=maoq1t6bs#/watch?v=Qa_uBgtnxV8

Iancar29

And for today's bit of eye candy ...

Tom Cruises Left Nut

:pac:Savage work there Ian !

Iancar29

From the cooler trends which ive noticed in the CFS runs , Met Office have similar thoughts to about October being colder than average and a good probability of this being the consensus for November and December too.

We expect that the current weak El Niño conditions in the
tropical Pacific will start to disappear by the end of this year,
and they are not expected to influence European and UK
weather significantly during the forecast period. Arctic sea ice
is at its lowest recorded extent, and whilst this could play
some part in determining weather over the UK over the next
few months, as yet there is no clear predictive association.
Sea surface temperatures in the northwest Atlantic are higher
than normal and this favours a tendency towards colder,
atmospheric blocking weather patterns over northwestern
Europe.
The consensus from computer model simulations is for
surface pressure to be higher than average to the north of
the UK during the three-month period, especially in October.
This is consistent with the anomalous sea surface
temperature pattern. Such a pressure distribution favours
weaker than average westerlies or spells of easterly winds,
increasing the risk of colder than average conditions through
the period.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/3/A3-plots-temp-OND.pdf

Obviously this forecast is only for the UK but its good to see in anyways imo

_Kaiser_

So in layman's terms and without reading back lots n lots of pages - is it time for me to start thinking about getting winter tyres on the car then? Had them in 2010 and badly needed too they were on the half-salted M3 in -14 C conditions!

Nowadays I've a much shorter commute but need new tyres anyway so should I take the plunge?

StormGazer.11

Kaiser2000 wrote: »

So in layman's terms and without reading back lots n lots of pages - is it time for me to start thinking about getting winter tyres on the car then? Had them in 2010 and badly needed too they were on the half-salted M3 in -14 C conditions!

Nowadays I've a much shorter commute but need new tyres anyway so should I take the plunge?

To keep it short, nobody knows how the winter will play out.. there are some small signs that point to a potentially colder average winter but we could just as quickly end up with a mild and wet one!

Maybe consider getting two snow tires and two normal ones.. set for both eventualities that way.

pistolpetes11

Keep it on track folks , don't attack the person posting,question the post if you like but dont attack it, if you have nothing useful to say , we'll just don't say anything at all

Snowmaker

Snow seems to have arrived early(ish) in Svalbaard this year, plenty of snow down to sea level - about a week earlier than this time last year - panoramic webcam here for Longyearbyen:

http://longyearbyen.livecam360.com/flash/main.php

Lower left of the main webcam image you can view archives from previous months/years, even create a time-lapse for a month/year.

Jaffusmaximus

When is that postman chap delievering his predictions for this winter and where would u hear it first?

Iancar29

I dunno if it was mentioned before but i like the update on the MWEs page to include winter 09 and 10 http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/major-events.asp

StormGazer.11

Iancar29 wrote: »

I dunno if it was mentioned before but i like the update on the MWEs page to include winter 09 and 10 http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/major-events.asp

Bit of reminiscing looking at those articles with a cup of tea and then a bit of drooling over some FI CFS charts, thursday night well spent.

mcriot29

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

When is that postman chap delievering his predictions for this winter and where would u hear it first?

Mid october thatS when he gave it last year, saying that hes more into selling his herb book then weather these days.
But when vogan mad man netweather etc where predicting a bad winter he was mocking them saying there are no signs of any bad winter, so he was bang on with his forecast so fair play to him respect to him

Iancar29

mcriot29 wrote: »

Mid october thatS when he gave it last year, saying that hes more into selling his herb book then weather these days.
But when vogan mad man netweather etc where predicting a bad winter he was mocking them saying there are no signs of any bad winter, so he was bang on with his forecast so fair play to him respect to him

Actually NetWeather were pretty much spot on , considering their forecast was mainly for the UK.

mcriot29

Iancar29 wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

Mid october thatS when he gave it last year, saying that hes more into selling his herb book then weather these days.
But when vogan mad man netweather etc where predicting a bad winter he was mocking them saying there are no signs of any bad winter, so he was bang on with his forecast so fair play to him respect to him

Actually NetWeather were pretty much spot on , considering their forecast was mainly for the UK.

Yep your correct i was thinking more of there forum members forecast for last winter not netweather itself , but they did well on there prediction the netweather guy,that forecast from netweather seems to be very good prob best of all longe range

Wolfe_IRE

WSI is the company that owns The Weather Channel. It says we (the company lists Ireland as forming part of its 'UK' forecast region) can expect a warmer and wetter than normal Oct to Dec.

It will issue its next seasonal outlook, including the late autumn and early winter forecast, on 22 October.

THIS YEAR'S OCT-DEC FORECAST

WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (October-December) to average slightly higher than normal across most regions, with the exception of parts of far southeastern Europe.

“As we head further into autumn, trends in the climate models are for a generally mild and wet period across western Europe, with any below-normal temperatures confined to parts of southern and eastern Europe” said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist. “Further, climate models are suggesting a lack of significant North Atlantic blocking (negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO) as we head deeper into autumn. While it is still a few weeks too early to issue a proper winter forecast, our preliminary analysis suggests that blocking (and associated cold weather) may be fairly rare, especially early in the winter.”

In October, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal
UK* – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland* – Cooler than normal

In November, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

In December, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

*To view the map defining WSI’s European regions, click here.

Sappa

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

WSI is the company that owns The Weather Channel. It says we (the company lists Ireland as forming part of its 'UK' forecast region) can expect a warmer and wetter than normal Oct to Dec.

It will issue its next seasonal outlook, including the late autumn and early winter forecast, on 22 October.

THIS YEAR'S OCT-DEC FORECAST

WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (October-December) to average slightly higher than normal across most regions, with the exception of parts of far southeastern Europe.

“As we head further into autumn, trends in the climate models are for a generally mild and wet period across western Europe, with any below-normal temperatures confined to parts of southern and eastern Europe” said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist. “Further, climate models are suggesting a lack of significant North Atlantic blocking (negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO) as we head deeper into autumn. While it is still a few weeks too early to issue a proper winter forecast, our preliminary analysis suggests that blocking (and associated cold weather) may be fairly rare, especially early in the winter.”

In October, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal
UK* – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland* – Cooler than normal

In November, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

In December, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

*To view the map defining WSI’s European regions, click here.

That's great news,a warmer milder autumn would be perfect.

Wolfe_IRE

An interesting article here

"Although there are cavalier assumptions that it is possible to forecast a season ahead, regular failures in that regard show how difficult it is for both amateurs and professionals alike.

"Winter weather will be predicated on a number of atmospheric and oceanic drivers, some of them conflicting, and it is far too early to attempt a prognostication given this complexity. There is one indicator that does have some success but we will have to wait until the second half of October to see how that is evolving. It is the advancement – or not – of snow cover across Eurasia. If this is rapid there is some evidence that shows that Europe is more susceptible to experiencing extreme cold outbreaks brought on north-easterly winds."

Blizzard 2010

CFS is still sticking to its guns indicating a cold start to winter