Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Iancar29

Today's bit of eye candy on the CFS . Cold snap in mid-late October still trending on the CFS but noting today Sub -4 850hp for October ( but still some ≤ -4

So onto November Where a trend of decent cold air seems to have been rolling out regularly on the CFS .





And onto into December , look what says hello just before the Start of the month?










Terms and conditions apply , the following events are governed by the (ICWEO )International Chaos Weather Event Organisation and shall not take responsibility of such events not materialising in true time ,

Wolfe_IRE

Backed up by relatively neutral AO output for the next 14 days or so, the GEFS ensemble through 14 October shows little signs of any significant cooling trend, although the ensemble does show upper air temps dipping gradually during the opening fortnight of the month. Temps look like staying close to average for the time of year.

Tindie

Daily Express was at it again today

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/348893/Arctic-blast-on-the-way

BRITAIN will be battered by an Arctic blast from Iceland next week – bringing snow, ice, flooding and bitter gales.
Forecasters last night warned the mercury will plummet to near freezing in many areas with daytime temperatures 15C lower than this time last year.
The Scottish Highlands and parts of northern England could see their first dusting of snow, while the entire country faces cold conditions and possible frosts. Forecasters said the bitter weather is likely to remain for the next few weeks with significant snow by the middle of the month.
The wintry forecast comes as the country recovers from a week of torrential downpours which have sparked devastating floods.
More than two months’ worth of rain has fallen in parts causing rivers to burst banks and forcing hundreds of families from their homes.
Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said: “We could well see some bitter cold temperatures from Sunday.
“We are looking at a cold pool of air sweeping in from the north sending temperatures plunging.”

Leon Brown, meteorologist for The Weather Channel, said Hurricane Nadine, currently over the Atlantic Ocean, is primed to hit the UK next week.
He said the hurricane – downgraded to a tropical storm two weeks ago – will trigger torrential downpours in the North. The remnants of the storm, dubbed “Child of Nadine” triggered heavy rain and strong winds earlier in the month.
Mr Brown said: “For the longer range forecast we are watching where tropical storm Nadine moves.
“The storm is near hurricane strength again and remains slow moving about 650 miles south-west of the Azores.
“Next week the storm will eventually get caught in the flow ahead of a trough and move north-east.

Leon Brown, meteorologist for The Weather Channel, said Hurricane Nadine, currently over the Atlantic Ocean, is primed to hit the UK next week.
He said the hurricane – downgraded to a tropical storm two weeks ago – will trigger torrential downpours in the North. The remnants of the storm, dubbed “Child of Nadine” triggered heavy rain and strong winds earlier in the month.
Mr Brown said: “For the longer range forecast we are watching where tropical storm Nadine moves.
“The storm is near hurricane strength again and remains slow moving about 650 miles south-west of the Azores.
“Next week the storm will eventually get caught in the flow ahead of a trough and move north-east.

IrishGurll

Tindie wrote: »

Daily Express was at it again today

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/348893/Arctic-blast-on-the-way

LMFAO They never fail to make me laugh :L , Wheres the proof dailyexpress ? Wheres the charts ? Yeahh because there is none LOL :L

scatch085

Good morning all

Found this on the weatherweb site. Lastest run seems to show alot colder conditions after christmas going into january. Be interesting to see if this starts to become a fimiliar picture.

Tindie

Week Ahead Forecast
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/19778093

Really don;t want that Warn air to win lol

Sponge Bob

An artic blast AND a trop (post trop) AT THE SAME TIME.

So Said that rag the express.

Conor30

What's a trop? Tropical storm?

Sponge Bob

Of Tropical Origination (IE all named Hurricanes by definition)

Last I looked the tropics ain't the artic, save perhaps when the Express is stick for some BS to fill its pages.

davidsr20

What's mod note #1 on the heading?
So basically we've to wait till feb to get frost and snow

Loughc

WOW, alot of sites I've checked are all reporting a warmer, wetter winter this year. If there's one thing I hate that's the rain. I love cold weather but wet weather... yuck!!

Sickened!

Jaffusmaximus

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

The usually conservative BBC outlook for October suggests a very cold month in comparison to previous years.

MrDerp

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

The usually conservative BBC outlook for October suggestes a very cold month in comparison to previous years.

Interesting, but it still amounts to:
"It'll either be clear and cool or warm and pi$$ing, dunno"

Caff Caff

Some weak hailstones mixed in with the short downpours in Dublin today. I have a feeling it will be mild this Winter. There is nothing I hate more! Still, it won't stop me from lighting the fire each evening

Calibos

Its ironic from an AGW POV, this Winter I'll be lighting a real coal fire purely..........................................



..................for the atmosphere

mrweatherman

Folks lets just face it set up a page for mild winter 2012-13 there would be far more activity cause it will be a very mild boring as f@ck winter with the odd storm and maybe just maybe one night of frost...!!!!!!

Calibos wrote: »

Its ironic from an AGW POV, this Winter I'll be lighting a real coal fire purely..........................................



..................for the atmosphere

bb1234567

mrweatherman wrote: »

Folks lets just face it set up a page for mild winter 2012-13 there would be far more activity cause it will be a very mild boring as f@ck winter with the odd storm and maybe just maybe one night of frost...!!!!!!

How do you know???:(

IrishGurll

I don't care what anyone says in my mind it going to be the coldest winter in history

Auldloon

Hoping for a mild winter. You folk that love the cold winters should move to NE Scotland, ye would soon change yer minds!

Iancar29

Chuileog wrote: »

Hoping for a mild winter. You folk that love the cold winters should move to NE Scotland, ye would soon change yer minds!

Ive been to Northern Sweeden @-25 º C , NOT INCLUDING WIND CHILL ...
and i would even move there!

Lucreto

Chuileog wrote: »

Hoping for a mild winter. You folk that love the cold winters should move to NE Scotland, ye would soon change yer minds!

Nah we would rather stay here and bring some snow. If you want a mild winter how about moving to Northern Africa.:D

The month of snow in 2010 didn't diminish the love I have for it. It will take a lot more than that to change my mind.

I have only experienced snow 3 times in my life. 2010, 1994 (i think) and 2003 on top of lugnaquilla.

Auldloon

Lucreto wrote: »

Chuileog wrote: »

Hoping for a mild winter. You folk that love the cold winters should move to NE Scotland, ye would soon change yer minds!

Nah we would rather stay here and bring some snow. If you want a mild winter how about moving to Northern Africa.:D

The month of snow in 2010 didn't diminish the love I have for it. It will take a lot more than that to change my mind.

I have only experienced snow 3 times in my life. 2010, 1994 (i think) and 2003 on top of lugnaquilla.

I do go to Africa for a month every winter! I can understand the love of snow, I used love it when I first moved over here but I hate the stuff now! Ideally I would migrate every year like the swallows.

Lucreto

Chuileog wrote: »

I do go to Africa for a month every winter! I can understand the love of snow, I used love it when I first moved over here but I hate the stuff now! Ideally I would migrate every year like the swallows.

Lucky for some. I don't have the money to do anything like that. It is not like we frequently get snow each year and I still get the novelty out of it.

Conor30

Chuileog wrote: »

I do go to Africa for a month every winter! I can understand the love of snow, I used love it when I first moved over here but I hate the stuff now! Ideally I would migrate every year like the swallows.

That's unusual to go to Africa for a month. Do you go to Tunisia or Morocco or somewhere like that?

Personally, I wish we had a continental climate, with hot summers and very cold, snowy winters. Ireland gives me neither. Ireland is great in that it doesn't visit extremes on you, and I appreciate that, but it's also very boringly samey.

Auldloon

Conor30 wrote: »

Chuileog wrote: »

I do go to Africa for a month every winter! I can understand the love of snow, I used love it when I first moved over here but I hate the stuff now! Ideally I would migrate every year like the swallows.

That's unusual to go to Africa for a month. Do you go to Tunisia or Morocco or somewhere like that?

Personally, I wish we had a continental climate, with hot summers and very cold, snowy winters. Ireland gives me neither. Ireland is great in that it doesn't visit extremes on you, and I appreciate that, but it's also very boringly samey.

Cape Town, the missus grew up part of her life there and her family still have a house there

Coldest I have seen here in scotland is -21.5, that was winter 2010, I was working in a place with no heating all that winter, the water froze in the toilet bowl a few times which wasn't much fun!!
This year I have scraped the cars about half a dozen times in the mornings so far. First frost was last night of August which is the earliest I have seen.

touts

Used 50% less heating oil last year versus the previous two years. While I love snow I'll be perfectly happy for last year's winter to be repeated until the economy picks up and the Troika take their hands out of my pockets.

Wolfe_IRE

Interesting update from Accuweather at around 3:15

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NzgAtY-png

Tindie

In last 2 hours I Have seen 2 rainbow together one above the other, while coming home and now sunny and raining at same times again, I just saw Another Rainbow, i don't think I seen 3 in one day before.

Dose feel little warmer then yesterday, when the sun is out!

bb1234567

Chuileog wrote: »

Hoping for a mild winter. You folk that love the cold winters should move to NE Scotland, ye would soon change yer minds!

I hate when people say that! snowlovers love the snow no matter what we, well I for one would never EVER get sick of snow.I'd have snow for 6 months non stop every year if I had my way.

jimmy.d

m. t they are talking http://www.clareherald.com/2012/09/winter-2012-2013-forecast-is-issued.html