Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Sappa

jimmy.d wrote: »

m. t they are talking http://www.clareherald.com/2012/09/winter-2012-2013-forecast-is-issued.html

This would be a great forecast,dry and above average temperatures with plenty of sun hopefully.

average_runner

Sappa wrote: »

This would be a great forecast,dry and above average temperatures with plenty of sun hopefully.

These guys are just using last years weather as a prediction for this year.
Last year they were all saying record cold because of the previous year and get your snow gear now etc, dont hear that this year.

We dont know whats going to happen 3 weeks time never mind 2 months time so these guys are just spoofs.

Iancar29

Today's bit of eye candy

Jaffusmaximus

Car temp was 5 degrees and a light mist here in Dundalk this morning. Was very refreshing!

Wolfe_IRE

Hurricanes have names -- now blizzards will, too
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/nation/2012/10/02/snowstorm-blizzard-names-weather-channel/1606531/

Wolfe_IRE

Looking at the 850hpa's (upper air temps) in the GEFS operational run from 6z, the breakdown of the 23 perbutations at 384hrs (20 Oct) is as follows:

9 charts call for temps to be close to or slightly below what they are at present i.e. which by Oct 20 will be closer to the average for the time of year. Sample chart below



8-9 charts indicating cold weather (airmass emanating from north or northeast) with daytime temps hovering around 6-10c during the day and close to and in some place below freezing at night. Sample chart below




4-5 charts showing much milder weather for the time of year.


Taking into account the above breakdown of perbutations, it is clear that GEFS (at least) is indicating a cooling trend around the middle of the month. It is far from certain hwo cool it will get but there is roughly a 40% chance of conditions being cooler than the average for the time of year. There is a much lesser 20% chance of conditions being much milder and a 40% chance of temps being around normal 9-12c).

leahyl

Just a quick question - what was the weather like around this time 2 years ago when we were facing into the freezing cold winter that we had? Was it mild in early October or colder than normal?

Jaffusmaximus

leahyl wrote: »

Just a quick question - what was the weather like around this time 2 years ago when we were facing into the freezing cold winter that we had? Was it mild in early October or colder than normal?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/uk_reviews/newsid_9151000/9151498.stm

This may give u an idea?

Jaffusmaximus

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/uk_reviews/newsid_9255000/9255960.stm

Here is also NOV 2010 in review. Very interesting to see how warm it began with in some places!

Iancar29

leahyl wrote: »

Just a quick question - what was the weather like around this time 2 years ago when we were facing into the freezing cold winter that we had? Was it mild in early October or colder than normal?

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/uk_reviews/newsid_9151000/9151498.stm

This may give u an idea?

Hmmm...

Localised flooding was reported after 25 to 35 mm fell in just a few hours.
On the 3rd the worst of the rain fell across southwest England, Wales and eventually northern England.
A further 30 to 40 mm was recorded in some places, washing out the Ryder Cup golf at Celtic Manor, Newport - the second interruption in three days and ensuring a fourth day of play for the first time in the competition's history.

Tonights predicted rainfall amount..


:pac:

Iancar29

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Looking at the 850hpa's (upper air temps) in the GEFS operational run from 6z, the breakdown of the 23 perbutations at 384hrs (20 Oct) is as follows:

9 charts call for temps to be close to or slightly below what they are at present i.e. which by Oct 20 will be closer to the average for the time of year. Sample chart below


8-9 charts indicating cold weather (airmass emanating from north or northeast) with daytime temps hovering around 6-10c during the day and close to and in some place below freezing at night. Sample chart below

.

Yup , first time i've seen the operational and control run going sub -5º 850hp in FI this season.

Wolfe_IRE

Let's not forget the bitter cold spell around New Years 2009/10 into the first week of Jan 2010 as well. You might remember the torrential rains of the preceding summer into the first half of November that led to severe flooding in Cork and along the shannon basin. Temps during the autumn period were mild.

The severe cold spell followed six weeks later even though the jetstream had been pretty dominant in relation to our weather for the summer, autumn and opening period of the winter.

Iancar29

:O :O :O

GO check out the CFS 12 z run from December all the way into January! ! !

Someone pressed the " COLD LOVERS RUN " button!!!!

WINTER 1947 anyone????

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1434&mode=2&carte=0&run=0


This guy wont be happy....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ukp1dwISkT4

StormGazer.11

Iancar29 wrote: »

:O :O :O

GO check out the CFS 12 z run from December all the way into January! ! !

Someone pressed the " COLD LOVERS RUN " button!!!!

WINTER 1947 anyone????

Thats a gorgeous run I know it might not even be on the run by tomorrow but come the end of november if that's what we're facing into I will be one happy snow bunny!! :cool:

icesnowfrost

hello guys. im new to this so plz forgive me...im a lover of winter and love snow, snow, snow hope this coming winter will be like that of 09 and 10.

Iancar29

Welcome to the Madhouse icesnowfrost!

I recommend reading through this thread in your spare time ,... you should be up to speed soon enough

Oh ! .. and go buy ticket for the Roller coaster! .... its gonna be a BUMPY RIDE!


EDIT: Forgot to actually post the thread i was on about!

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056447334 !

ZX7R

icesnowfrost wrote: »

hello guys. im new to this so plz forgive me...im a lover of winter and love snow, snow, snow hope this coming winter will be like that of 09 and 10.

Welcome icesnowfrost great user name You should also check out the tread a beginners guide to reading winter charts it will help understand the charts that get posted

up for anything

No icesnowfrost or cold weather please. I can't afford to put oil in the tank and the house is cold enough already. I'd say I'm not the only one.

Lucreto

up for anything wrote: »

No icesnowfrost or cold weather please. I can't afford to put oil in the tank and the house is cold enough already. I'd say I'm not the only one.

What happened to the money people saved from last years heating bill?

Surely people didn't spend it on a new BBQ or something.

I put my savings away just in case I need it this year. I still don't have the heating on. My winter clothes are okay right now but if things keep up I it will be on before long.:D

Caff Caff

There should be a thumbs down for posts...

A nice nip in the air tonight. I love it!! So comforting

Smidge

StormGazer.11 wrote: »

Thats a gorgeous run I know it might not even be on the run by tomorrow but come the end of november if that's what we're facing into I will be one happy snow bunny!! :cool:

Had a look at the link and not sure what I was looking at:o

What do you take it to mean(I saw mild weather!)?

Sponge Bob

Today was colder than last Christmas day but THANkFULLY it might warm up a bit from now on.

Caff Caff

Smidge wrote: »

Had a look at the link and not sure what I was looking at:o

What do you take it to mean(I saw mild weather!)?

You need to go through the hours on the left and you will see. Just click through them all and watch it turn into something majestic!!!

Caff Caff

RTE WEATHER 3DAY OUTLOOK
Saturday will be a dry and sunny day with light winds. After a cool start to the morning, temperatures will reach 13 or 14 degrees during the afternoon. Most of Saturday night will remain dry too. Rain will reach Munster by Sunday morning and will then spread northwards to the rest of the country during the afternoon, together with strengthening southeast winds. Temperatures and humidity will actually rise with the rain and highest values will be around 15 or 16 degrees on Sunday, and on Sunday night temperatures will stay in double figures as well. It will remain very mild and humid on Monday with highest temperatures of 17 or 18 degrees for most places, but it will be a showery day. Tuesday is likely to be a showery day as well, and the weather will probably remain unsettled into the middle of next week too, with temperatures falling back to normal values for the time of year.



17-18 DEGREES!!!!! AAARGH!!!!

pad199207

What's wrong with that ?? 17 or 18c that's a treat

gbee

up for anything wrote: »

No icesnowfrost or cold weather please. I can't afford to put oil in the tank and the house is cold enough already. I'd say I'm not the only one.

Ironically if we get really cold weather your body can acclimatize and -10°C can FEEL warm, if we just get the miserable cool and damp weather we don't acclimatize.

We also get additional health problems, flu endemics, insect and rodent over wintering, increased resistance to medications from summer infections. soil pest overwintering etc, etc.

What we need is a two week blanket of snow unbroken from the top on the country to the tip and more than six inches thick, two feet is ideal.

So to synopsis, we want two feet of snow for two weeks. Goddess Khione is an ancient benefactor who may oblige.

okfine

here's hoping we get some of the white stuff this Winter season,government have quite a lot of excess salt to put to use from last year

StormGazer.11

Had a look at the link and not sure what I was looking at:o

What do you take it to mean(I saw mild weather!)?

Check back a few posts because Ian left a welcome message to icesnowfrost with a link to a thread that breaks down reading charts. and as was already mentioned you have to go through the hours on the left of the charts to see the full run... Enjoy the sight

dsmythy

Need mildness to pay the bills.... The CFS ought to be banned.

Jaffusmaximus

dsmythy wrote: »

Need mildness to pay the bills.... The CFS ought to be banned.

Do what a penguin does huddle upto someone for warmth and enjoy the snow!