Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Iancar29

:pac:

mcriot29

I see rays weather is going for a good chance of a very cold winter , this guy knows his stuff far better then the likes of vogan and the postman and mad man who are money mad , also i hear joe b is still going for a snowfest this year in ireland and uk .

Iancar29

Iancar29 wrote: »

Yup , first time i've seen the operational and control run going sub -5º 850hp in FI this season.

Heres today's ensembles compared to yesterday run. 9 days out still so alot can still change

Rebelbrowser

Iancar29 wrote: »

:O :O :O

GO check out the CFS 12 z run from December all the way into January! ! !

Someone pressed the " COLD LOVERS RUN " button!!!!

WINTER 1947 anyone????

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=1434&mode=2&carte=0&run=0

The CFS long term forecast was actually really accurate last year. Around Christmas I looked at it through to mid Feb and it (correctly) forecast epic cold from the east stalling in SE England. It was really spot on. Hope it is equally spot on about this!

Rebelbrowser

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Let's not forget the bitter cold spell around New Years 2009/10 into the first week of Jan 2010 as well. You might remember the torrential rains of the preceding summer into the first half of November that led to severe flooding in Cork and along the shannon basin. Temps during the autumn period were mild.

The severe cold spell followed six weeks later even though the jetstream had been pretty dominant in relation to our weather for the summer, autumn and opening period of the winter.

Even the year before, the winter of 08/09, was a good cold winter - our first for years. There was no epic event (though I think the East got snow in Feb 09) but there were about 50 night frosts even in balmy Cork! I always remember that that winter effectively started on Halloween. It had been very mild and then on Halloween night the temps dipped to about -4. From then on we had frosts every second night it seemed up to late Feb (and later I think...).

Pangea

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Let's not forget the bitter cold spell around New Years 2009/10 into the first week of Jan 2010 as well

It was a lot longer than that, the first big freeze came a few days after Mid December 2009 and the ice was only starting to disappear around 14th of January 2010. This was the single longest cold spell out of the three.

The other two of course being in Late November 2010 , and Mid December 2010. What a crazy 12 months it was.

Wolfe_IRE

Iancar29 wrote: »

Heres today's ensembles compared to yesterday run. 9 days out still so alot can still change

Iancar29

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

:pac: :pac: :pac:



...

Simon Keeling looks into the thought of a brief Northerly trough being the result of those cold 850s in the charts.

EDIT: Latest run just out!!!!!! :eek:

mrweatherman

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Let's not forget the bitter cold spell around New Years 2009/10 into the first week of Jan 2010 as well. You might remember the torrential rains of the preceding summer into the first half of November that led to severe flooding in Cork and along the shannon basin. Temps during the autumn period were mild.

The severe cold spell followed six weeks later even though the jetstream had been pretty dominant in relation to our weather for the summer, autumn and opening period of the winter.

Even the year before, the winter of 08/09, was a good cold winter - our first for years. There was no epic event (though I think the East got snow in Feb 09) but there were about 50 night frosts even in balmy Cork! I always remember that that winter effectively started on Halloween. It had been very mild and then on Halloween night the temps dipped to about -4. From then on we had frosts every second night it seemed up to late Feb (and later I think...).

But has anyone kinda noticed latelt that the weather pattern eg amount of rain and temps are near in line with 09/10 the rain at time didnt cause the flood in cork the esb opend the dame up stream while a high tied was in. But according to met eireann there might be frost in parts so things might go our way eg cold and snow

leahyl

Iancar29 wrote: »

:pac: :pac: :pac:


...

Simon Keeling looks into the thought of a brief Northerly trough being the result of those cold 850s in the charts.

EDIT: Latest run just out!!!!!! :eek:

I am taking from your :eek: that this is good :pac:

maquiladora

I don't see anything to get excited about on the latest GS ensembes.



The op gets down to just slightly colder than it is now right now. A couple of members briefly touch -5 but the mean never dips below 0.

It's a bit early to be looking for anything special I think. :pac:

Iancar29

I take it from that , my photoshop skills are too good for yous so! hehehe

Yes Maq, put even potential frost is is exciting pour moi! ... Great walking weather!

Wolfe_IRE

maquiladora wrote: »

I don't see anything to get excited about on the latest GS ensembes.

And i wanted any excuse to post a pic of Mitt Romney dancing, Maq.

maquiladora

Very quiet for a time when we should be approaching solar maximum.

Spaceweather.com:

FLATLINED: Solar activity is very low. With no sunspots actively flaring, the sun's x-ray output has flatlined. NOAA forecasters say there is no more than a 5% chance of M-flares and a 1% chance of X-flares today.

Is it Redsunset or someone else here an expert on the potential connection between low solar activity and weather on earth?

Wolfe_IRE

maquiladora wrote: »

Is it Redsunset or someone else here an expert on the potential connection between low solar activity and weather on earth?

Redsunset knows his stuff on this matter. MT is great too.

By the way, a video of the sun over the last 24 hrs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phnbqNHChn0

UPDATE:
CME update: 1 coronal mass ejection has transpired over the last 24 hours.

Jaffusmaximus

Is this very unusual activity for the sun?

Pangea

Dont know where to post this so I'l just post it here.

A very detailed pdf on Met.ie today

05 October 2012 - Review of the Climate of 2011

Interested in how the weather experienced in 2011 compares to the new long-term averages? Check out Met Eireanns new ‘Climate of 2011’ annual which is now available. This annual encompasses over 600 stations worth of data for parameters of rainfall, temperature, sunshine and global radiation!

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/Climate_2011.pdf

icesnowfrost

can someone tell me is there any good apps for android like a winter weather app?

Wolfe_IRE

Another blof worth keeping an eye on is this one from Daniel Smith in the UK.

Here is his latest post
http://ukweather.wordpress.com/2012/10/05/northern-blocking/

Wolfe_IRE

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Looking at the latest GEFS output from 18z, it has high pressure attempting to build over Ireland and the UK from Friday/Saturday of next week. Select 'sea level pressure' on the above link to view.

The ECM couldn't be more different though. It has us in a much cooler and unsettled setup from next Friday
http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php


Obviously, the models disagree on whether the building highs to our west and over Greenland will remain fixed or not.

Incidentally, the AO index does dip into negative territory at the end of next week signifying some displacement south of colder air over the arctic. This does not necessarily mean that cold air will push south over western europe.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html

On the other hand, the NAO heads towards more neutral territoryaround the same period suggesting a more settled outlook
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

The weekend model runs should see the models converge somewhat.

Harps

Correct me if I'm wrong but are the NAO and AO forecast graphs not just indirect outputs of the daily GFS runs?

Looks like a pretty uneventful zonal pattern for the coming week, models were hinting at a high over Greenland but no sign of that now. Hopefully we'll get a few warm days next week with any Atlantic blocking kept in store for another few months!

Wolfe_IRE

There is an ECMWF Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation reading too as far as i know, Harps. Not 100% sure what the AO and NAO charts I posted are based on though.

Missymoohaa

I've been reading this thread with delight since it started but have to confess my head is overwhelmed with all the info. Give it to me straight lads, are we going to have big snow this winter or are we not? :D. An educated guess would suffice thanks

Iancar29

Missymoohaa wrote: »

I've been reading this thread with delight since it started but have to confess my head is overwhelmed with all the info. Give it to me straight lads, are we going to have big snow this winter or are we not? :D. An educated guess would suffice thanks

This is my educated guess..

Iancar29 wrote: »

:cool:

This morning's bit of eye candy from the CFS...

catch.23

mrweatherman wrote: »

But has anyone kinda noticed latelt that the weather pattern eg amount of rain and temps are near in line with 09/10 the rain at time didnt cause the flood in cork the esb opend the dame up stream while a high tied was in. But according to met eireann there might be frost in parts so things might go our way eg cold and snow

That is completely false. The ESB opened the dam because so much rain had fallen that the water level was within centimeters of pouring over the top of the dam. The met.ie bulletin for is headlined with ''WETTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD BRINGS WIDESPREAD FLOODING''.

A series of fast-moving deep
Atlantic depressions brought active frontal
systems across Ireland, bringing very wet
and windy conditions. Spells of rain or
showers gave falls of 10mm or more on
many days across Connacht and Munster,
while all areas received heavy falls on the
1st, 9th, in the period 16th to 19th and on
the 21st. River levels reached record heights
in many parts of the midlands, west and
south, leading to significant flooding

Cork Airport had 232mm of rain that month.

gbee

catch.23 wrote: »

That is completely false.

Sorry to break it to you, but the ESB do face charges for incompetence in face of a 50mm rain event weather warning issued by Met Eireann for the preceding three days.

In the event we [as in Cork] got 'just' 25mm of rain.

srmambo

With regards winter 2012, Weathergossip has issued a snow forecast for the 12th of October with the north having a 65% chance of snow on high ground and the north and the north east left with a 5 % chance of snow on low ground.

http://www.weathergossip.com/snow.html

Sponge Bob

gbee wrote: »

Sorry to break it to you, but the ESB do face charges for incompetence

They closed the dam so that a search party could find a jumper in the river !!!!

Iancar29

srmambo wrote: »

With regards winter 2012, Weathergossip has issued a snow forecast for the 12th of October with the north having a 65% chance of snow on high ground and the north and the north east left with a 5 % chance of snow on low ground.

http://www.weathergossip.com/snow.html

Hmmmmmmmm ... Currently id go for sleet on mountains if anything and that being 20% risk imo . Still confident that my good oul friend mr CFS will be right with some snow in the north by the end of the month . Can Anyone post the latest ensembles ? Can't check them on my phone

pad199207

Joe B over on Twitter..

"If I am in the UK, I am getting ready for a heck of a winter "