Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Kippure

Looks like a repeat of our winter november december 2009 / 2010.
Any sort of easterly is on the cards. We just have to move the Isle of man further south.....

HellFireClub

Kippure wrote: »

Looks like a repeat of our winter november december 2009 / 2010.
Any sort of easterly is on the cards. We just have to move the Isle of man further south.....

Lol haven't heard that phrase since last winter!

The Isle of Man Shadow!!!

Calibos

Must.....resist......temptation....to ....post.......

Iancar29

Let it out Calibos.. you know you wanna! :pac:

Wolfe_IRE

Simon Keeling update.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6ent_DEJgI

Pleasuredeath

Joe bastardi wrote on his twitter. "Gonna be a long cold winter for nw Europe"

okfine

Pleasuredeath wrote: »

Joe bastardi wrote on his twitter. "Gonna be a long cold winter for nw Europe"

If he's right he may merit a follow hurry up snow can't wait to light up the open fire and roast some nuts

Scubadevils

Pleasuredeath wrote: »

Joe bastardi wrote on his twitter. "Gonna be a long cold winter for nw Europe"

I see he also links to a stupid article from the Daily Express though as part of that tweet. Not really something solid to back up his tweet with in fairness!

http://iceagenow.info/2012/09/arctic-blast-hammer-britain/

okfine

Scubadevils wrote: »

I see he also links to a stupid article from the Daily Express though as part of that tweet. Not really something solid to back up his tweet with in fairness!

http://iceagenow.info/2012/09/arctic-blast-hammer-britain/

Have to say you are right,disappointing to be honest.

patneve2

Scubadevils wrote: »

I see he also links to a stupid article from the Daily Express though as part of that tweet. Not really something solid to back up his tweet with in fairness!

http://iceagenow.info/2012/09/arctic-blast-hammer-britain/

You'd expect something better from JB wouldn't you eheh

pad199207

Latest from Joe B

"When this winter is over, most of northwest Europe, if they are still buying into global warming, wont be. Things look harsh there "

He has a video coming out soon to explain these latest tweets, but of course you will have to give him moola in order to see it !

maquiladora

Joe B really is insufferable on twitter. His right wing political ranting was bad enough but when he started retweeting Vogan of all people during Hurricane Isaac I just had to unfollow him. :P

He may be a pro met, but he is hugely biased towards the weather he likes (east coast hurricanes & cold/snow).

I used to find him entertaining but now I think his emotions have overtaken him in recent years. Too much wishcasting. A huge pinch of salt should come as standard with every Joe B comment!

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

Joe B really is insufferable on twitter. His right wing political ranting was bad enough but when he started retweeting Vogan of all people during Hurricane Isaac I just had to unfollow him. :P

He may be a pro met, but he is hugely biased towards the weather he likes (east coast hurricanes & cold/snow).

I used to find him entertaining but now I think his emotions have overtaken him in recent years. Too much wishcasting. A huge pinch of salt should come as standard with every Joe B comment!

I agree Maq , but we cant let aside the fact that he forecasted the last 2 winters pretty well i think.

maquiladora

Iancar29 wrote: »

I agree Maq , but we cant let aside the fact that he forecasted the last 2 winters pretty well i think.

Thats true, though he did get the US winter forecast completely wrong last year so I wonder if there may have been an element of good luck involved in his recent euro forecasts.

Su Campu

It's big business now doing winter forecasts, and it seems anyone and everyone can have a pop and people will take them seriously. Whatever about JB, at least he does know what he's talking about, though I agree he's become way too political recently and is sometimes like a dog with a bone. But that's his job, and at least his qualifications and experience allow him to put forward scientific arguments for what he says, unlike the Vogans et al. of this world.

But it's a simple formula - as long as you mention snow and cold then it doesn't matter who you are - butcher, baker,postman or truck driver - your link will appear here and in other places. Mention mild though and off you go into oblivion.

Please excuse the cynic in me...

StormGazer.11

Su Campu wrote: »

But it's a simple formula - as long as you mention snow and cold

Please excuse the cynic in me...

Cold?? :eek: Snow?? :eek: Ye heard it here first guys Su said we'll be covered in snow and plunged into artic conditions!!



All joking aside it does amaze me every winter how people amp things up and alter statements to fit into their ideal weather situations! And most here know I love snow and cold but we have to be realistic.

Wolfe_IRE

Su Campu wrote: »

It's big business now doing winter forecasts, and it seems anyone and everyone can have a pop and people will take them seriously.

Fully agree

http://www.britishweatherservices.co.uk/uk-winter-201213-outlook-now-available/



"Yep the picture is unlikely to lie! After several weeks of study of the main global influencing factors (ENSO, QBO, NAO) plus adding the relevance of recent winters in relation to winters of the past 50 years, we have concluded that winter 2012/13 in the UK and western Europe will have its moments in more ways than one!! The detailed outlook (containing predictions for deviations from the seasonal average temperature and number of snow days per month) is now ready for the testing. If you are a weather sensitive company or concern, with a need for contingency planning, the winter outlook (Oct 12-Feb 13) can be yours for £325 plus VAT. Simply drop us an email and we will revert. Thank you and good luck!

ZX7R

It realy realy doesent matter what season it is bad weather sells.
Most people post on this forum because they want snow cold frost ect . There wouldnt be much happening on here if we didnt have the chancers and there forecasts:rolleyes:
jamstec have been going with cold for our parts most of this year with there seasonl forcast i wonder will it be continue with this month update

Deep Easterly

I too have a good deal of respect for JB, but not sure why he thinks that his forecast for cold winter in Europe will dismiss the idea of global warming if it does fruitate? 2010 for example started very cold in this country with one of the coldest Januarys on record and the coldest Feb since '86. This was followed by the coldest November and December on record later in the year, yet, annual mean temps for the year only finished very slightly below normal. A cold, harsh winter is no more proof that global warming is a myth than a hot, burning summer is proof that is isn't.

mcriot29

Jb and peirs are both saying a cold winter on way, piers is calling it a mini ice age winter he was on itv a few days ago warning.
If we get the postman saying a mild winter where in trouble so lets hope he says a cold one too, vogan also says a bitter winter on way , i have heard uk met have told goverment the same thing .
I think its time we welcome are white firend mr snowy to come visit us

srmambo

mcriot29 wrote: »

Jb and peirs are both saying a cold winter on way, piers is calling it a mini ice age winter he was on itv a few days ago warning.
If we get the postman saying a mild winter where in trouble so lets hope he says a cold one too, vogan also says a bitter winter on way , i have heard uk met have told goverment the same thing .
I think its time we welcome are white firend mr snowy to come visit us

Weathergossip still persists with their forecast for a milder weather during the winter, with December being the exception as it is forecasted to be cold or at least colder than November.

http://winterireland2012.blogspot.ie/

Also from the same website a collection of forecasts of what days it is likely to snow during the next few months.

http://snowweatherforecast.blogspot.ie/

In my opinion this site is pretty good for its long range forecasts which change as we advance closer to the month (for example the forecast for summer from this site was somewhat optimistic until May and then it talked about the summer being unsettled with June being noted as the thundery month.)

Blizzard 2010

Very few are saying we will have a mild winter this year so far . If I can rightly remember most observers this time last year predicted a mild 2011/2012 winter. JB could well be right

Blizzard 2010

srmambo wrote: »

Weathergossip still persists with their forecast for a milder weather during the winter, with December being the exception as it is forecasted to be cold or at least colder than November.

http://winterireland2012.blogspot.ie/

Also from the same website a collection of forecasts of what days it is likely to snow during the next few months.

http://snowweatherforecast.blogspot.ie/

In my opinion this site is pretty good for its long range forecasts which change as we advance closer to the month (for example the forecast for summer from this site was somewhat optimistic until May and then it talked about the summer being unsettled with June being noted as the thundery month.)

Sorry no offence, but what a load of rubbish. Very similar to what we had last year:rolleyes:

Su Campu

Weathergossip is run by pauldry from this forum.

rickdangerouss

Another BBC bit about lack of sea ice and wet summers, that could change an cold winter to an Vogan winter!! :rolleyes:



http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-19848112

Su Campu

It is notable that the Atlantic from Florida right up to the Norwegian Sea (i.e. the full path of the Gulfstream) has been below average for much of this year, with well above average waters around Greenland and the northwestern Atlantic. I think this setup was favoured the east Atlantic coughing that's been the problem this summer. Note the cold PDO mirroring the Atlantic, with the same warmth in the NW Pacific and cold in the east, off the Western USA. I'm not sure what that all means for the coming winter, we'll just have to wait and see.

Missymoohaa

Any one heard if the postman's predictions for winter are out yet, I read earlier in this thread they were due in October

mcriot29

Su Campu wrote: »

It is notable that the Atlantic from Florida right up to the Norwegian Sea (i.e. the full path of the Gulfstream) has been below average for much of this year, with well above average waters around Greenland and the northwestern Atlantic. I think this setup was favoured the east Atlantic coughing that's been the problem this summer. Note the cold PDO mirroring the Atlantic, with the same warmth in the NW Pacific and cold in the east, off the Western USA. I'm not sure what that all means for the coming winter, we'll just have to wait and see.

Warm waters of alaska mean ice age for west europe so joe b says

Su Campu

Warm winter it is so. Look at Alaska

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

But it's a simple formula - as long as you mention snow and cold then it doesn't matter who you are - butcher, baker,postman or truck driver - your link will appear here and in other places. Mention mild though and off you go into oblivion.

Indeed. For the new posters on here, this is what happened to Sponge Bob last winter when he dared to open a Mild forecast thread. He just about survived. :pac:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVZP1MkUAF4

It's going to be a long winter.