Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

StormGazer.11

Deep Easterly wrote: »

It's going to be a long winter.

If you were a gambling man Deep what would you be placing your money on?.. just out of interest

Iancar29

Redsunset

mcriot29 wrote: »

Jb and peirs are both saying a cold winter on way, piers is calling it a mini ice age winter he was on itv a few days ago warning.
If we get the postman saying a mild winter where in trouble so lets hope he says a cold one too, vogan also says a bitter winter on way , i have heard uk met have told goverment the same thing .
I think its time we welcome are white firend mr snowy to come visit us

mcriot29, I have kindly asked you earlier to provide a source to your claim and have not done so. I am very interested as to where you HEARD that the UKMET have told government about this bitter winter coming.

If you cannot provide evidence of this then I suggest you refrain from posting in this way as it can only be seen as blatantly false information and very misleading.

Show me the evidence of this and I will accept, otherwise cut it out.

Thank you.

Deep Easterly

StormGazer.11 wrote: »

If you were a gambling man Deep what would you be placing your money on?.. just out of interest

I really wouldn't have clue Stormgazer I firmly believe that forecasting so far out is really down to a throw of the dice. But if I was going on my own personal hunch, I would guess that this winter would be wetter and potentially stormier than the last few (God knows that wouldn't be too hard!) This is more of a hopecast though based on the law of averages -- if such a law really exists outside of human concept that is…

icesnowfrost

maquiladora wrote: »

Joe B really is insufferable on twitter. His right wing political ranting was bad enough but when he started retweeting Vogan of all people during Hurricane Isaac I just had to unfollow him. :P

He may be a pro met, but he is hugely biased towards the weather he likes (east coast hurricanes & cold/snow).

I used to find him entertaining but now I think his emotions have overtaken him in recent years. Too much wishcasting. A huge pinch of salt should come as standard with every Joe B comment!

joe b got the winter of 2010 wrong and by a long shot he said we were in for a mild wet winter i think...how wrong he was

Blizzard 2010

On that point Have the U.K Met Office updated their winter predicton yet?

maquiladora

Redsunset wrote: »

I am very interested as to where you HEARD that the UKMET have told government about this bitter winter coming.

I vaguely remember some guy posting in one of the UK weather forums recently something like "my girlfriends uncle works for the Met Office and they are expecting a 63 winter". Pretty sure it was a wind up. I could be wrong, but that might be the origin.

okfine

The best way to see how this winter turns out is to pretend every day is Christmas eve....

To be anticipating so much and dreaming such beautiful dreams but yet still have that pinch of doubt that Santy may have you on that naughty list or that it maybe a mild winter!

lets all chill out and see where this ride takes us :rolleyes:

Redsunset

No disrespect maq, but I want mcriot29 to show me where they HEARD it. Otherwise it's just crap.

Sponge Bob

Redsunset wrote: »

I want mcriot29 to show me where they HEARD it. Otherwise it's just crap.

My dog told me he was expecting a cold winter today and I simply gave him the toe up the hole he deserved. Now he is predicting Teh Milds and hiding behind the sofa where I can't get at him.

Having been confused by the dog I cannot say that reading this thread improves matters any.

touts

Missymoohaa wrote: »

Any one heard if the postman's predictions for winter are out yet, I read earlier in this thread they were due in October

He's waiting for the final pieces of data to come in. The robin sh1t had both red berries and blue berries in it so that was inconclusive. The fox was seen crossed the road left to right twice and right to left twice so it's all down to the fifth observation there. Finally there is no pattern yet on if cat is licking it's balls or it's arse first. Could go either way yet.

gbee

My conclusive evidence that it'll be a mild winter down my way.

Believing things to the contrary I was fitting my jeep with winter tyres prior to its annual DOE. I was indeed putting my money where ..... etc.

However, the winter tyres were €139 and had to be ordered in from the UK or shipped from online and the dealer said he had these lovely ones for just €90 each and I needed two at least on the front.

They are end of season clearouts ~ Summer tyres with a ZERO rating for snow!!! Hmmm. zero snow rating? I'm taking that as a sign.

gothwalk

srmambo wrote: »

Weathergossip still persists with their forecast for a milder weather during the winter, with December being the exception as it is forecasted to be cold or at least colder than November.

http://winterireland2012.blogspot.ie/

Yeah, but they're starting out with a "cold October", and even that doesn't seem to be coming off too accurately. I took a coat out when I was walking the dog yesterday morning, and ended up carrying it (the coat, not the dog) for about four miles, and there hasn't been even a reasonable frost yet, more than a week in.

TBH, I'm not taking any forecast seriously unless they present some reasoning, and preferably back it up with some models and numbers. Not aimed at Weathergossip particularly, but just a paragraph going "colder in December" could be done by tossing coins, for all we know.

Jaffusmaximus

Weather prediction is such a mixed bag of the definite and uncertainty. The further in time a prediction is being made the more into the realms of pseudoscience it seems to travel. I love hoping for a cold winter with lots of snow but I have to admit sometimes it is like looking to open a Xmas present early instead i assess its shape size weight to make an educated guess of what is inside but I really don't know till its opened in this case for me!

mcriot29

Redsunset wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

Jb and peirs are both saying a cold winter on way, piers is calling it a mini ice age winter he was on itv a few days ago warning.
If we get the postman saying a mild winter where in trouble so lets hope he says a cold one too, vogan also says a bitter winter on way , i have heard uk met have told goverment the same thing .
I think its time we welcome are white firend mr snowy to come visit us

mcriot29, I have kindly asked you earlier to provide a source to your claim and have not done so. I am very interested as to where you HEARD that the UKMET have told government about this bitter winter coming.

If you cannot provide evidence of this then I suggest you refrain from posting in this way as it can only be seen as blatantly false information and very misleading.

Show me the evidence of this and I will accept, otherwise cut it out.

Thank you.

Its on the netweather winter forum there on part 3 now , also uk met 3 month model is going for blocking, also red sunset you did ask me before and i did answer where i saw it,also i know a guy who works in uk met he said same type of thing to me now unless hes a nut job its true,Also even if uk met say it does not mean it will happen there just warning
I think guy who said it name was martin burns

leahyl

I am loving this from the UK met office:) the pdf temperature summary is particularly interesting;)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

I am loving this from the UK met office:) the pdf temperature summary is particularly interesting;)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

Good link! You're after getting very technical ms leahyl!

Larbre34

The UK met prediction for the 3 months is interesting, cooler than average overall.

They are getting behind the atlantic surface temps to be of most influence for the NW Europe winter. How do the current atlantic temps compare to the periods coming up to our icy winters of 09/10 and 10/11? How do our own forecasters feel about the likelihood of a blocking or easterly patterns dominating in the event of this scenario?

leahyl

munsterlegend wrote: »

Good link! You're after getting very technical ms leahyl!

Technical?! Lol! I wish! Just couldn't contain my excitement over getting this information from a reliable source:D

Wolfe_IRE

leahyl wrote: »

I am loving this from the UK met office:) the pdf temperature summary is particularly interesting;)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/contingency-planners

Nice find, Leahyl.

The UKMO is very cautious when it comes to forecasting colder weather in the short-medium term, let alone the long term. That's why I find this interesting. It appears that they are leaning towards a slightly cooler than average winter. Most notably, it's another voice added to the thought that high pressure to our west and north will allow for a more easterly/northeasterly setup. This is also backed up in their precip projections i.e. leaning towards lower than average

Iancar29

Larbre34 wrote: »

The UK met prediction for the 3 months is interesting, cooler than average overall.

They are getting behind the atlantic surface temps to be of most influence for the NW Europe winter. How do the current atlantic temps compare to the periods coming up to our icy winters of 09/10 and 10/11? How do our own forecasters feel about the likelihood of a blocking or easterly patterns dominating in the event of this scenario?

leahyl wrote: »

Technical?! Lol! I wish! Just couldn't contain my excitement over getting this information from a reliable source:D

That's the same one I posted a few weeks back ... They should hav the updated one By the end of the week. Oh the nerves!! Haha

Missymoohaa

touts wrote: »

He's waiting for the final pieces of data to come in. The robin sh1t had both red berries and blue berries in it so that was inconclusive. The fox was seen crossed the road left to right twice and right to left twice so it's all down to the fifth observation there. Finally there is no pattern yet on if cat is licking it's balls or it's arse first. Could go either way yet.

Ok you've had your fun, I did laugh honestly but I really do want to know when the postman will have his predictions ready.

touts

Missymoohaa wrote: »

Ok you've had your fun, I did laugh honestly but I really do want to know when the postman will have his predictions ready.

No Idea sorry. I'll ask my cat. Balls & the postman will publish his "prediction" in October. Arse and it will be early November. :-)

Wolfe_IRE

Temperatures look like staying close to or slightly below the average for the time of year up to the last week of the month. Overall, the IMT (Irish Mean Temperature) for October should finish below the 1981-2010 average of 10.2c, unless of course there is a warming trend during the final week of the month.

The September IMT also finished below the 1981-2010 average following slightly above average temperatures during August.

850hpas (temp at APPROX. 1500 metres) for Armagh

mcriot29

touts wrote: »

Missymoohaa wrote: »

Ok you've had your fun, I did laugh honestly but I really do want to know when the postman will have his predictions ready.

No Idea sorry. I'll ask my cat. Balls & the postman will publish his "prediction" in October. Arse and it will be early November. :-)

He gave it mid oct last year was in paper, hes more intrested in selling his book of herbs then weather these days, id say he may start charging for his forecasts soon via his new website.

patneve2

Well all i can say that the GFS post 120 hours shows weather very uncommon at this time of the year - northern blocking with undercutting lows. Too early? Perhaps...we'd all be paying gold for charts like that in the latter half of November onwards...Anyways I think that whoever is forecasting a colder than average October is on the ball...

HellFireClub

Any sign of our winter forecast yet by MT Cranium?!? :cool:

ninebeanrows

My current thoughts with regard to the winter are for a high levels of blocking in early winter and late autumn.

I would anticipate a below average October / November / December with frequent high latitude blocking and meridonal flow.

I expect things to become more zonal, mild and unsettled from January / February.

October (-1.5c)
November(-2c)
December(-1.5c)
January (+2c)
February (+1.5c)


Will update thoughts later this month.

mcriot29

Weathercheck wrote: »

My current thoughts with regard to the winter are for a high levels of blocking in early winter and late autumn.

I would anticipate a below average October / November / December with frequent high latitude blocking and meridonal flow.

I expect things to become more zonal, mild and unsettled from January / February.

October (-1.5c)
November(-2c)
December(-1.5c)
January (+2c)
February (+1.5c)


Will update thoughts later this month.

Sounds good to me very like end of 2010 then

ninebeanrows

mcriot29 wrote: »

Sounds good to me very like end of 2010 then

It's my expert opinion combined with star gazing

My hypothesis is purely based on the Ice Melt and current medium-longterm outlook in the Arctic.

= Don't take it seriously!