Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

catch.23

mcriot29 wrote: »

Sounds good to me very like end of 2010 then

Except Nov 10 was more like -3, and December more like -5.

mcriot29

catch.23 wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

Sounds good to me very like end of 2010 then

Except Nov 10 was more like -3, and December more like -5.

Vogans pre winter forecast

Because past weak El Nino Octobers have seen a period of rest within an overall active autumn I believe the next few weeks should display this. We may in fact be seeing this this week, I’m not sure. The US is seeing a cold October and this bodes well for a cold winter ahead there. Warm Octobers there have been known to be followed by warmer winters. As for here in Northwest Europe. We shouldn’t think that no winter weather in autumn should mean a mild or none eventful winter is on it’s way, in fact, going by recent years with weak El Ninos which are centrally positioned in the Pacific, a cold October in North America and a wet, relatively mild autumn in the UK, bodes well for a cold and snowy winter ahead. This happened back in 2009. The year 2009 is mentioned a lot these days because the pattern we’ve seen this summer, the El Nino state, the warm Atlantic, cold Pacific is very similar plus the NAO has trended similar too.
The big difference between this year and 2009 is the Atlantic is warmer and the Pacific is colder so the setup isn’t exactly the same. The nino is very alike but I am struggling to come up with anything right now that would suggest we don’t have a rather harsh and long winter ahead both here in Britain and Ireland as well as across the central and eastern US and Canada. EVERYTHING I am seeing right now points to a severe winter which could be just as severe as 2009-10. Keep in mind that 2009-10 is our benchmark for tough winters. It’s the worst since the 70s and we saw repeat cold and big snows all the way through LATE March. Heck it was even cold right up till mid-May when there was frosty mornings and highs struggled to hit 10C. It even snowed below 1,000ft. This year could be worse than 2009-10. There is a lot on the table.
While there are lots of sources either calling for a mild winter, going purely by what happened last year, in which case their not looking at anything or there’s folks calling for a 62-63 style winter. Lets be careful to not going for the extreme. It appears to happen every year since 2009.
In these posts, I am trying to show you WHY I am calling for what I am calling. I am trying to not go down the road of hype but looking at reality. In saying that, based on what trends I am seeing and correlation to the past, I am starting to lean more and more towards a harsher winter. Try not to pinpoint a particular winter and say that’s what’s going to happen but more look at what’s there and suggest, this is what COULD happen.
I may be contradicting myself because I am talking a lot about 2009-10 but my point is that it’s important to look at EVERYTHING and not just spout out what you want to see happen. Wishcasting is something which has become ripe in recent years. I guess I am trying to show you everything. By the time my winter forecast is out. You’ll already know what I believe is coming but more importantly, you’ll know why I’m calling it.
As for the lack of sea ice and chance of this providing us with a colder winter. I don’t see any relationship, the reason being that the arctic ocean closes back up with ice quickly. However, what I do think could very well have effect is that feedback to enhanced blocking and stronger stratospheric warming events. This is exactly what we had in 2009-10 winter here with the cold coming down and then staying here. We saw record or near record blocking in 2009-10 and with a warmer Atlantic this year, it begs the question whether we see even stronger blocking this year.
Crucial differences between 2011 and 2012 for UK
Here’s some crucial differences between this year and last. Never mind the fact there’s an El Nino rather than La Nina, there’s other vital differences which SHOULD mean cold, not warm this winter. 1) The NAO is trending opposite to last year. Where it wanted to always stay positive last year, it wants to stay negative this year 2) While there was a mean ridge over Britain last year with dry soils, there’s wet soils and a mean trough overhead this year. Last years dry soils and biased ridging over the UK lead to a feedback through the following winter 3) Warm waters surrounded Britain last year, this all fed back to the atmosphere keeping the warmth over us last winter 4) Warmest Atlantic waters are focused over the Northwest Atlantic so the block should be W, N of us and so the mean trough lasts through this winter. Difference between summer and winter is that trough will be filled with arctic air. You only have to look at past years and trends to see why the summer can be an important indicator in terms of mean positive and negative heights. Rainfall distribution.
Here’s the difference in water temperatures this year compared to this time last year.
October, 4, 2012


October 6, 2011


Important to note is the cold waters over the North Atlantic extending east to Ireland and west coast UK, warmth in the North Sea last year and this year where waters are cooler in the North Sea, warmer the further west you go in the North Atlantic and the greatest anomalous waters are way over towards the Davis Straits and off Greenland. This should encourage the blocking high to setup more over Greenland this winter, as well as the summer pattern over the UK itself which is opposite to last year.
Here’s the difference in SST’s between 2009 and this year. The ocean temperature profile is more similar compared to last year but notice the Pacific is colder and the Atlantic is warmer this year that 2009.
October 5, 2009


October 4, 2012


Joe Bastardi said to me back in autumn 2009, where the greatest amount of rainfall is compared to normal during summer but especially autumn, that’s where the cold often goes in winter. Trough in summer means cool, cloudy and rainy. In winter it means cold, snowy and sunny. Remember where that mean trough has been this summer… and remember where that mean ridge was last year and what kind of winter followed… See what I am getting at?
If you’ve questions, please fire away in the comments section. I want you to be able to understand what I am getting at here…
I guess if I am going to do my own version of wishcasting, why do you think I am wanting to see a wet November? It happened in autumns of the past which lead to a long and cold winters to follow.
The reason I keep banging on about this milder autumn and the return of a positive NAO/AO is that if, say we were to have a cold November and early December like we got with the onset of the La Nina in 2010, then the arctic would be drained of cold, it would also mean that we would have a bad start to winter but it would likely end early like it did in 2010-11 or we would likely have a warm mid period before the return of cold. These weak nino’s don’t correlate particularly well with fast start to winter in Northwest Europe. It’s a different story in North America just like autumn’s are, BUT in saying that, their early winter is likely to be coldest further west with the cold pool migrating east through December. Eventually, after a cold front end to winter in the West, it should shut down quick with the replacement of a warm ridge. The cold should then lockidown in the east and southeast by Christmas.
With the weak El Nino, winters tend to be worse from mid to late winter rather than at the start for both the eastern US and UK. La Ninas tend to have a colder front end winter. The pattern simply doesn’t correlate with a fast start to winter. However, I do think we’ll get a taste of cold, perhaps even snow in November within a mild, stormy, Atlantic driven pattern but once we get into December and feedback of those warm North Atlantic waters kick in and the cold has been allowed to build for several weeks over the pole, then look out. December 10 onwards. Much of Britain and the eastern US could be covered in white this Christmas once again.
This month should be the rest in between wet and stormy weather. We got the big rains in September and this should resume late October/November with it’s fair share of hardship. Heavy, flooding rains, storminess and perhaps even a taste of winter on the backside of storm systems should prevail before we enter winter.
NAO can be tough to track in autumn when up and down but it’s trend is negative & that’s important in the long term
The fickle nature of the NAO makes long range forecasts hard to pinpoint short or medium range weather, where exactly systems will go etc. The ensembles are showing opposites every day with one day it showing a strong positive and the next it’s strong negative. This also means daily model runs are often all over the place. In other words if the ensembles showed persistence in the NAO trend and it happened, then there would be more persistency in daily runs to a particular pattern for say the 5-10,10-20 day period.
The thing you can go by as a good guide, is how the index has behaved so far. It’s been mainly negative and so it’s tougher to get it positive.
Here’s what the ensembles are showing today.


It’s interesting how it’s shown to go positive next week and then sharply back to negative by mid-month. That’s plausible given that it did the same in 2009. In that year there was a spike in November which allowed the zonal, ocean driven pattern to dominate both North America and Europe and I do believe we should see 2, perhaps 3 weeks of positive, coupled with the AO which allows the cold to build over the pole. This needs to happen in order for the cold to reload.

Su Campu

Oh ffs....:rolleyes:

ZX7R

Saves us having to pay vogan 3 quid;)

mcriot29

ZX7R wrote: »

Saves us having to pay vogan 3 quid;)

Ill stick his winter forecast part 2 when he puts it out on the 31st

maquiladora

mcriot29 wrote: »

Vogans pre winter forecast

....

"Wishcasting is something which has become ripe in recent years..."

....

"Lets be careful to not going for the extreme. It appears to happen every year since 2009."

About Mark Vogan

Over the last three years I have written a blog providing personalised daily and long range forecasts....

cherryghost

Weathercheck wrote: »

It's my expert opinion combined with star gazing

My hypothesis is purely based on the Ice Melt and current medium-longterm outlook in the Arctic.

= Don't take it seriously!

You're a mod, we always take you seriously

Sponge Bob

mcriot29 wrote: »

Vogans pre winter forecast
.

FFS. Reams of drivel from that quack!

icesnowfrost

came across this :cool:

Think blizzard and heavy snowfall comes to mind. Officially, however, the deadly winter storm is defined by these factors:

wind gusts over 35 mph
visibility of less than a quarter-mile (though if you've ever been caught in a blizzard, you'll probably swear it's closer to a few inches)
duration of at least 3 hours
temperature below 20°F (-7°C)
Although blizzards are tracked by satellites, forecasters use computer models to predict their paths. The models reside in mammoth supercomputers and are constantly fed information about the current state of the atmosphere.


lets hope we see a few this winter

IrishGurll

icesnowfrost wrote: »

came across this :cool:

Think blizzard and heavy snowfall comes to mind. Officially, however, the deadly winter storm is defined by these factors:

wind gusts over 35 mph
visibility of less than a quarter-mile (though if you've ever been caught in a blizzard, you'll probably swear it's closer to a few inches)
duration of at least 3 hours
temperature below 20°F (-7°C)
Although blizzards are tracked by satellites, forecasters use computer models to predict their paths. The models reside in mammoth supercomputers and are constantly fed information about the current state of the atmosphere.


lets hope we see a few this winter

where did she hear this ?

IrishGurll

*You * Duhh lol

icesnowfrost

sorry guys i no its info you already no but i am new to this

ps she is a he lol

belcampprisoner

i predict rain


http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/wxfacts/El-Nino.htm

IrishGurll

icesnowfrost wrote: »

sorry guys i no its info you already no but i am new to this

ps she is a he lol

No I'm not saying you're wrong , I'm just wondering do you have a link to the website you got it from

icesnowfrost

IrishGurll wrote: »

No I'm not saying you're wrong , I'm just wondering do you have a link to the website you got it from

http://www.almanac.com/content/predicting-blizzards-model-misbehavior :cool:

IrishGurll

icesnowfrost wrote: »

http://www.almanac.com/content/predicting-blizzards-model-misbehavior :cool:

Thanks !

touts

HellFireClub wrote: »

Any sign of our winter forecast yet by MT Cranium?!? :cool:

Now that is a forecast I will pay attention to when it comes out.

Redsunset

touts wrote: »

Now that is a forecast I will pay attention to when it comes out.

Perhaps you missed this about early thoughts.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=80889527&postcount=509

I'm going to go against M.T's mild front loaded winter season and echo Weathercheck.

It does look like northern blocking will get going very early this time. Too early perhaps?

Interesting development happening already in the stratosphere over the tropics. Record breaking cold already seen. So much different to this time last year.

While we like to see a warmer Strat over the north pole, it's the colder tropic that helps transports more ozone to the higher latitudes by Brewer Dobson Circulation that helps keep a weakened polar vortex and thus enable better chance of height rises espesially when combined with a strongly negative QBO this all aids matters.

Anyway for those not up on this. Don't worry a new Strat thread shortly will show more details.

touts

Redsunset wrote: »

Perhaps you missed this about early thoughts.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=80889527&postcount=509

Also it does look like northern blocking will get going very early this time. Too early perhaps?

Interesting development happening already in the stratosphere over the tropics. Record breaking cold already seen. So much different to this time last year.

While we like to see a warmer Strat over the north pole, it's the colder tropic that helps transports more ozone to the higher latitudes by Brewer Dobson Circulation that helps keep a weakened polar vortex and thus enable better chance of height rises espesially when combined with a strongly negative QBO this all aids matters.

Anyway for those not up on this. Don't worry a new Strat thread shortly will show more details.

Thanks. Hadn't seen that.

Harps

Looks like an interesting setup towards the end of the week onwards, easterlies all the way from Russia to Greenland with undercutting lows. Would be a lot more interesting if it happened in January for anyone wanting some cold weather but it'll be interesting to watch how it develops

leahyl

Redsunset wrote: »

Perhaps you missed this about early thoughts.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=80889527&postcount=509

It does look like northern blocking will get going very early this time. Too early perhaps?

Is it bad news if the northern blocking happens too early?

Redsunset

Not bad news. Just a waste when the continent is still warm.

ninebeanrows

Harps wrote: »

Looks like an interesting setup towards the end of the week onwards, easterlies all the way from Russia to Greenland with undercutting lows. Would be a lot more interesting if it happened in January for anyone wanting some cold weather but it'll be interesting to watch how it develops

I think good signals, patterns like these can take hold for a while. As we know a zonal pattern when it sets up can last for multiple months. So i'd rather see signals for blocking in mid-October than signals for zonality!

maquiladora

Latest UK Met Office update for November to January.

Up to 20% chance of above normal temperatures.
Up to 20% chance of near normal temperatures.
60-80% chance of below normal temperatures.

Raw data are displayed for use by international meteorological centres. This does not constitute a seasonal forecast for a given location.

Elmer Blooker

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think good signals, patterns like these can take hold for a while. As we know a zonal pattern when it sets up can last for multiple months. So i'd rather see signals for blocking in mid-October than signals for zonality!

True, patterns can persist for months but usually with interruptions.
what was that you were saying about blocking in October?

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1946/Rrea00119461009.gif

Elmer Blooker

PS: The winter of 1916-17 was similar to 1946-47.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1916/Rrea00119161021.gif

patneve2

The most recent example of "serious" October blocking occurred in October 2003 with heavy and continuous thunderstorms of hail, sleet, graupel and snow in the Dublin region. A more recent example is late October 2008 when snow fell in the Wicklow mountains. Therefore we can come to the conclusion that Northern blocking is rare but not unheard of in the month of October. Below is a chart from Oct 2003 and a link to the met.ie monthly summary.

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/oct03.pdf

Jaffusmaximus

I hate Premablockulation!

maquiladora

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

PS: The winter of 1916-17 was similar to 1946-47.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1916/Rrea00119161021.gif

I'd give my eyeteeth to experience a winter like either of those, especially 47.

‘The Blizzard’ of February 25th was the greatest single snowfall on record and lasted for close on fifty consecutive hours. It smothered the entire island in a blanket of snow. Driven by persistent easterly gales, the snow drifted until every hollow, depression, arch and alleyway was filled and the Irish countryside became a vast ashen wasteland. Nothing was familiar anymore. Everything on the frozen landscape was a sea of white. The freezing temperatures solidified the surface and it was to be an astonishing three weeks before the snows began to melt.

There were 10ft drifts in Ardmore Co. Waterford, right on the coast. Unbelievable.

Sponge Bob

maquiladora wrote: »

I'd give my eyeteeth

Well don't. Book a flight to Tromso in Norway where this crap belongs. A winter like that would kill 1000s in Ireland.