Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

DOCARCH

patneve2 wrote: »

A more recent example is late October 2008 when snow fell in the Wicklow mountains.

Not just the Wicklow Mountains. Just dug this one out of the archives for the 29th October 2008 taken in a back garden in Enniskerry (jn the village).



Leaves had not fully turned never mind fallen off the trees!

maquiladora

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Well don't. Book a flight to Tromso in Norway where this crap belongs. A winter like that would kill 1000s in Ireland.

Nah, I'll stay. You take a trip to Florida and come back when its all over.

Sponge Bob

This country is not designed for extreme winters and unlike 1947 people are not allowed to cut turf any more in many cases and do not have it stored at home. The death toll woould be appaling.

Wish for deep snowdrifts where people are equipped for them not where they would cause mass murder.

Su Campu

Here's the Russian probabilistic temperature forecast for Nov-Jan, which has temperatures mirroring sea surface temperature anomalies at mid-latitudes, but colder in much of the Arctic. Note that the continents are largely below normal. From here.




Precipitation

maquiladora

Sponge Bob wrote: »

This country is not designed for extreme winters and unlike 1947 people are not allowed to cut turf any more in many cases and do not have it stored at home. The death toll woould be appaling.

Wish for deep snowdrifts where people are equipped for them not where they would cause mass murder.

Events like that happen very rarely. But they do happen, so its only a matter of time before it happens again.

We cannot control when it happens next, but eventually it will happen again. If it happens in my lifetime then I'll be around to experience it. If not then a future generation will have to deal with the negative impacts of it anyway.

So if its inevitable, I want to be around to experience it.

Found a good deal on those flights yet?

mickger844posts

The Winter 2012-13 thread is rolling along nicely which some interesting views on the upcoming season. Personally i can't see a repeat of last Winter as that really was depressingly mild and uneventful. I just have a gut feeling that we will see significant cold spells this Winter. Whatever we get this thread will be essential viewing for the coming months

Iancar29

Harps wrote: »

Looks like an interesting setup towards the end of the week onwards, easterlies all the way from Russia to Greenland with undercutting lows. Would be a lot more interesting if it happened in January for anyone wanting some cold weather but it'll be interesting to watch how it develops

Big daddy of a blocking high to the North!! , OHH PLEEEEAASEEE STAY OR COME BACK LATER WHEN THE AIR IS COLDER!!! .....

I want this again!!!


^^^ ... Streamer came in off the Irish sea about 8am . Wind Driving it right at me , was amazing

HellFireClub

Lucreto

Sponge Bob wrote: »

This country is not designed for extreme winters and unlike 1947 people are not allowed to cut turf any more in many cases and do not have it stored at home. The death toll would be appalling.

The county then and now are completely different. Most houses now have gas or oil to heat homes so cutting turf is not as needed as much. 2010 was a wake up call as it showed we could do more and last year they had plans in place in case it happens again. Technology has come along way since 1947 so I expect if we do have a 1947 event again we will be able to handle it far better than you think.

Iancar29

HellFireClub wrote: »

Your "house" doesnt seem so spooky in the snow aye? :rolleyes:

HellFireClub

Lucreto wrote: »

The county then and now are completely different. Most houses now have gas or oil to heat homes so cutting turf is not as needed as much. 2010 was a wake up call as it showed we could do more and last year they had plans in place in case it happens again. Technology has come along way since 1947 so I expect if we do have a 1947 event again we will be able to handle it far better than you think.

It isn't all good though. Have you ever noticed those 20 litre drums of home heating oil in fuel station forecourts last winter and they'll be reappearing now with the onset of this winter? This was a natural market reaction to the fact that many people simply cannot afford to get a decent fill of home heating oil all winter and are throwing in a few of these 20 litre containers of oil every week/month.

I think if last winter had been (or if this winter turns out to be), exceptionally cold again, we would have seen or this winter we will see, a lot of people in situations whereby they will not be able to afford to heat their homes this winter.

mcriot29

Just saw weatheractions updated winter forecast looks like nov dec and jan will be very bad snow ice etc , of course this is just piers views matchs in with joe bs forecast but core of cold is more over ireland , if this happens it would be a 47 winter
A lot of experts over on netweather are saying this year fits in with 62-63.
I heard joe b said this will be a 1 in 50 year winter,

Pleasuredeath

Wish the postman would hurry up and give his forecast

mcriot29

Pleasuredeath wrote: »

Wish the postman would hurry up and give his forecast

Yes he may charge this year since he has a website now

Redsunset

Yes, a lot of folks have suffered in the past and will continue to but unfortunately this is something we can't change anytime soon. My sympathies to all affected and it's a lot of families.

The weather however will do just what the hell it wants regardless of the hope casting inside and out of the WEATHER FORUM. I know some of you can't understand why someone would want a bitter winter to rival the classics but let it go. Might never happen in our lifetime. People wish for lots of things at the expense of others.

Severe weather of every type has and will continue to cause folks to struggle and the unfortunate loss of life.

Can we not just discuss potential weather scenarios in a designated discussion forum anymore, be it the fantasy of one or many without dragging in the economic climate.

The politics forum is available.

Sponge Bob

mcriot29 wrote: »

piers views matchs in with joe bs forecast but core of cold is more over ireland , if this happens it would be a 47 winter
A lot of experts over on netweather are saying this year fits in with 62-63.

Thats enough for me. I'll call it so. It will not be as cold for as long as February to April 1947 and it will not be as cold for as long as January February 1963. It may be as cold as an average day during one of those two notable cold spells but that excusion into cold will not last more than 48 hours in Ireland no matter/because of what some muppet on Netweather says and it may be cold without snowing. If you want netweather hysteria stay on netweather, I don't want to hear what is going on in that place and it let the snow bunnies in Ireland down horribly last year so emmm boo I suppose. This here is an ordinary decent forum with a bit of weather included and i declare fcuk paragraphs and all until next March or so when the snow bunnies leave again.

icesnowfrost

https://us.v-cdn.net/6034073/uploads/attachments/592201/223751.jpg


this pic is from december 2010 outside my house...hope to see it like that again.

Blizzard 2010

Sponge Bob wrote: »

This country is not designed for extreme winters and unlike 1947 people are not allowed to cut turf any more in many cases and do not have it stored at home. The death toll woould be appaling.

Wish for deep snowdrifts where people are equipped for them not where they would cause mass murder.

We had a a State of emergency in December 2010 and during last October flooding One person died during that period ( she drowned in her basement flat )so you are talking rubbish about the potential death toll. There are provisions for these events in place.:rolleyes:

Back to the topic anyway.the next three weeks will be interesting in terms of model output

maquiladora

Interesting change in the UK Met Office 16-30 day outlook from yesterday to today.

Yesterday:

...Temperatures are likely to be generally close to average, but perhaps falling below normal towards the end of October...

Today:

... Temperatures are likely to be below or perhaps at times well below average for the time of year...

Of course it could flip back tomorrow, and a cold UK doesn't equal cold here. Still, interesting enough to note.

Sponge Bob

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Back to the topic anyway.the next three weeks will be interesting in terms of model output

Actually the next 5 months will be interesting and I can forecast here and now that not every run of every model will show snow or freezing conditions and cold uppers and that outlier perturbations of pub runs will also be interesting even where they show balmy high teens in November. I will stand over the accuracy of my 5 month forecast that I gave today in here for the first time and I expect to be proven entirely correct and I won't be making any more 5 month forecasts this year.

Strangegravy

Sponge Bob wrote: »

... until next March or so when the snow bunnies leave again.

Some of us snow bunnies are here all year round.

ninebeanrows

If it was even into November we would be getting a wee bit excited with output like this!

Wicklow Weather

Hi Folks personally I would not be a betting man in relation to Netweather but admit I follow them. I dont take anything at all serious or gospel from 144+ but looking at the latest CFS looks like Piers and Joe are off the mark. I am not saying they are incorrect but nothing jumping off the medium to long term for November.

Many of us built ourselves up for last years winter and I see so many or getting excited again. I for one will not hold by breath until I either see a REAL blocking pattern or well em 5 foot of snow in the garden!

Enjoying the forum and cast those forecasts and blizzard like days ahead, who knows it could happen!

Iancar29

Weathercheck wrote: »

If it was even into November we would be getting a wee bit excited with output like this!

Looks at Calendar....

Blizzard 2010

Wicklow Weather wrote: »

Hi Folks personally I would not be a betting man in relation to Netweather but admit I follow them. I dont take anything at all serious or gospel from 144+ but looking at the latest CFS looks like Piers and Joe are off the mark. I am not saying they are incorrect but nothing jumping off the medium to long term for November.

Many of us built ourselves up for last years winter and I see so many or getting excited again. I for one will not hold by breath until I either see a REAL blocking pattern or well em 5 foot of snow in the garden!

Enjoying the forum and cast those forecasts and blizzard like days ahead, who knows it could happen!

The CFS chops and changes but it can be a good indicator of what is to come so we could easily end up with a mild changeable winter. I am also with The Weather Outlook:)

Deep Easterly

ECMWF 3 month temp anomaly forecast for the period Oct - Dec. Slightly above average temperatures forecast for the period as a whole:


From met.no.

IMT wise, mean temp for period 1st-8th October is on 9.3c, considerably lower than the 12.3c for the same period last year and the 12.7c in 2010, but more in line with the 10.1c in 2009.

StormGazer.11

Iancar29 wrote: »

Looks at Calendar....

Ian you've got some golden meme's in fairness

Anyway looking through the major weather events section on met.ie, and the few from Octobers past are obviously for heavy rain and storms. It would be nice for any potential blocking to hold of for a little while and for a major storm before some cold. Might be asking for a tad too much though we'll more than likely get none of the above if mother nature is reading this forum! :rolleyes:

Wolfe_IRE

Notable negative AO phase since mid-Sept.

Calibos

Sponge bobs comments are just the other side of the coin to those comments by others during the Summers, castigating those who wish death on thousands of the elderly across the continent from heatstroke....Oh, wait....

The league of lightning strike victims have boycotted the forum in disgust at the glee exhibited by most of this forums members over the last few months of Thunderstorm activity.

As for Ian 'Tornado Chaser' Carruthers, how dies that guy sleep at night!!

Sponge Bob

Ah yeah but the storm and sferic and aurora chasers are with us all year long ( save where they head to the north pole or Tornado alley).

Snow Bunnies ignore weather all year long and appear en masse around now DEMANDING drifts in their back gardens in suburban Cork. Different specimens altogether, not like chasers at all. I like chasers.