Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

DOCARCH

Sponge Bob wrote: »

station time show date

.....and photos (with dated newspaper).

derekon

just had a wee glance at piers corbyn's twitter page and who was posting there? None other than that whack job david icke (end of the world is nigh). now I am really starting to believe that if piers says we are in for a brutally cold winter, the opposite will materialise

D

tylercollins

If his winter forecasting wasn't enough... how about a book called "Remedies and Cures of Bygone Era" by none other than Michael Gallagher, Donegals infamous postman!!

mcriot29

tylercollins wrote: »

If his winter forecasting wasn't enough... how about a book called "Remedies and Cures of Bygone Era" by none other than Michael Gallagher, Donegals infamous postman!!

Yeah i know as u said last week he will start charging for his forecast soon like madman and shrek aka vogan are

HellFireClub

Any sign of the real deal yet, MT Cranium's winter forecast?!?

mcriot29

HellFireClub wrote: »

Any sign of the real deal yet, MT Cranium's winter forecast?!?

Mt posted his views on the winter a few pages back ull have to look to find his post

Sponge Bob

mcriot29 wrote: »

Mt posted his views on the winter a few pages back ull have to look to find his post

Where is the "station time show date " you were asked for??

mcriot29

Sponge Bob wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

Mt posted his views on the winter a few pages back ull have to look to find his post

Where is the "station time show date " you were asked for??

I said i dident know say it on facebook they said heard it on radio im sure he will have in local papers this week or next , to make more money along with his herb book

Sponge Bob

So we have an unseen alleged facebook post itself alleging a radio station interview and allegedly "lots of snow" ( your words) in November and December and that is all we have to go on then????

odyboody

Sponge Bob wrote: »

So we have an unseen alleged facebook post itself alleging a radio station interview and allegedly "lots of snow" ( your words) in November and December and that is all we have to go on then????

More than enough info for the likes of "The Guardian" to run a full peice if they get a whisper of it, can just see it now.
Its being reported that a respected weather expert is predicting :rolleyes:

mcriot29

Sponge Bob wrote: »

So we have an unseen alleged facebook post itself alleging a radio station interview and allegedly "lots of snow" ( your words) in November and December and that is all we have to go on then????

Yep afraid so im sure ull see his forecast in papers soon,job b is going for an epic winter so im happy with that in my eyes hes the best forecaster
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.mrf.gif
Ao very neg same with nao for next 2 weeks

Wolfe_IRE

mcriot29 wrote: »

Ao very neg same with nao for next 2 weeks

Looks like a lot of that cold air from the arctic will sink south over Siberia and North America as opposed to Europe though, looking at the latest model data.

Once it does, we will probably need to see a positive AO to allow for a cold reload and a possible shot ourselves at seeing some much colder weather come the end of the month.

maquiladora

Edit : Of course, this would be more interesting if it was winter and not autumn. I doubt the NAO would stay negative from here on. :P

Iancar29

mcriot29 wrote: »

Yep afraid so im sure ull see his forecast in papers soon,job b is going for an epic winter so im happy with that in my eyes hes the best forecaster
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.mrf.gif
Ao very neg same with nao for next 2 weeks

OMG!.... YOu put in DATA!!?! ... You feeling ok Mcriot?!... :pac:

leahyl

Guys I'm getting more confident by the day reading this thread! The signs aren't bad at the moment are they? I have the 'snowy' feeling this year!!:D

HellFireClub

leahyl wrote: »

Guys I'm getting more confident by the day reading this thread! The signs aren't bad at the moment are they? I have the 'snowy' feeling this year!!:D

Same here, I can nearly smell the auld graupel already! :cool:

Wolfe_IRE

HellFireClub wrote: »

I can nearly smell the auld graupel already! :cool:

Iancar29

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

How dare you use my favourite expression! ...


Talking about ' feelings' .. i think the weather lately is a very 2010 feeling to it... ... Very unsettled period coming up... then BAM! ...
NAO dropped like a cannonball fired DOWNWARDS !

Im kinda gettin more excited about the possible stormy weather first . Oh btw... today we officially turned the heating on in the house

mcriot29

Iancar29 wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

Yep afraid so im sure ull see his forecast in papers soon,job b is going for an epic winter so im happy with that in my eyes hes the best forecaster
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.mrf.gif
Ao very neg same with nao for next 2 weeks

OMG!.... YOu put in DATA!!?! ... You feeling ok Mcriot?!... :pac:

If you look back on last years posts i use to put in lots of data and links to messy to do it nowadays on my phone

HellFireClub

It hasn't officially snowed on this forum until someone gets infracted for stirring the shít between Dublin people and country people! :D:D

mcriot29

HellFireClub wrote: »

It hasn't officially snowed on this forum until someone gets infracted for stirring the shít between Dublin people and country people! :D:D

Whos stirring the ****t

cherryghost

No heating here yet, and here's why

Winter 2010 was the first time my wife from Argentina experienced snow. She moved over August 2010. She wore, I'm not kidding you, 5 layers of clothes and could barely walk around just so she could keep some warmth for the period. She loved the snow but the bitter cold was unbearable for her.

Whilst I was away at work she had the electric heating on ALL day for nearly the entire winter. So needless to say I was flabbergasted when the bill came in January. So I needed to take action.

Winter 2011 wasn't so bad but I thought I'd try help her along, to adjust to the colder weather, by hiding some of her warm clothes. Our bill was nearly 1/4 of what it was the year before. Success!

Now she's adjusted and not finding the weather cold at all... so far. But just in case, I might remove the heater switches :P

Sponge Bob

I'd say the NAO will be positive by the 7th of Novermber myself.

Sappa

Looking at the 20 day forecasts it mentions nothing about extreme cold just mild settled weather am inmisding something.

Wolfe_IRE

In the far flung reaches of the 12z is the first appearance of the colour 'pink' (snow) on the precip charts. It might be for the highest peak of the Cairngorms but still....:o

StormGazer.11

Those straws are a familiar sight :rolleyes: Hopefully we won't need to be clutching at them all winter and we'll have hands full of fluffy white stuff instead (I daren't say the 's' word)

torrential1

leahyl wrote: »

Guys I'm getting more confident by the day reading this thread! The signs aren't bad at the moment are they? I have the 'snowy' feeling this year!!:D[/Quote

You would want to be careful leahyl ... while we understand what you mean by 'snowy' feelings, the gestappo who control this site could ban you for daring to have a gut feeling or an innocent wishful thought. Its all about data and scientific proof for snow this winter which is nonsense as any successful forecast past 7 - 10 days is pure luck..

maquiladora

tylercollins

A winter forecast by the owner of http://www.ukweatherforum.com

Winter 2012/13 Long range forecast - By Lewis



Introduction

With whats been a fairly wet autumn across many parts of the UK so far, that looks set to continue at least until the end of the month in to the start of November.

Some fairly deep areas of low pressure will continue to cross the United Kingdom over the next 2 weeks or so, with a hint of some colder air making it's way from the North at the end of the month in to November.

The main factor in this long range forecast is the position of the jet stream, much further South than expected, and this will be one of the main drivers to a colder winter.

I will be looking at the patterns from the long range forecasting model from now until January.

October



The unsettled theme will continue for much of the UK, with areas of low pressure making their way in off the Atlantic bringing with it strong winds and heavy rain.

In to the 3rd week of the month we expect some fairly vigorous lows with the potential of severe gales.

In terms of rainfall, around average to slightly above average for October, with some areas particularly the West and South West to have fairly above average rainfall totals for this month.

Temperatures will be slightly below average for the time of year.

November



In to November we expect low pressure to be in charge, instead of mild westerlies, or south westerlies, the winds will become increasingly from the North to North East.

As low pressure systems push across the United Kingdom they will drag colder air from the North bringing spells of wintry precipitation to Scotland and Northern hills. As the near continent and Greenland is cooling down fairly quickly during the period they may just be our first true shot of winter with snowfall to low levels.

There will be very little in the way of settled spells during November across the South of the UK, with milder air likely to prevail across the South, with the coldest of the air in the North, the rule of the low pressure systems is to sink southwards with the warmer air to the south whilst dragging in colder air in behind to the North.

However settled spells are likely across the North, especially Scotland and far Northern England where temperatures will drop bringing widespread frosts.

Rainfall slightly below average across the North, way above average across the South. Temperatures around average for much of the UK, slightly below for Scotland and the North East of England.

December



Can she be a repeat of December 2010?

December is going to be a mixed month, with Atlantic weather systems mixed in between high pressure, the theme of this month will be North Westerly winds bringing wintry showers and snow showers to much of Scotland, Ireland, and the North-West of England.

At times during this period I expect they will be a few "Northerly topplers" which means we get a perfect potent northerly air flow lined up only for it to topple within 24-48 hours because of systems trying to nudge their way in from the Atlantic. Due to a unfavorable pattern.

The number one rule for a sustained period of cold weather for the UK is to get the Atlantic shut off, which is normally a ridge of high pressure that will block Atlantic systems making their way in across the United Kingdom, if you get the perfect setup the flood gates can open to colder air from the East like December 2010, or from the North.

I expect December to be a rather cold month with periods of snow showers for many, along with overnight temperatures dipping well below freezing.

Rainfall will be around average to slightly above average.

January



By now I'm way out of my comfort zone in terms of long term forecasting, although I expect January to be slightly milder at first, before cooling down middle of the month leading in to a very cold February.

Cold air from the North East will bring periods of snowfall to much of Northern England, Eastern coastal areas of England and filtering inland.

The South East and East Anglia to receive their heaviest snowfall of the winter, with Scotland getting their fair share.

Conclusion

I think this winter will be around average to slightly above average for snowfall, by no means colder than 2010, but I expect plenty of opportunities for snowfall.

With winter just around the corner in meteorological terms, by no means is it close for forecasters.

There is the potential of course with certain weather patterns and signals that this winter may surprise quite a few of us, and who know's it only takes a week or two of widespread sub zero temperatures and snowfall to put it on par with December 2010.

Thank you for reading my long range winter forecast. As you are a member of the forum you can reply to this post at the bottom of this page, by all means make a discussion about it, this is what the forum is for.

Thank you,
Lewis

Su Campu

I will be looking at the patterns from the long range forecasting model from now until January.

So, is he just reading the CFS? :rolleyes: