Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

tylercollins

Su Campu wrote: »

So, is he just reading the CFS? :rolleyes:

How come when ever I post something on here, you're nearly always the first person to reply :P haha

ZX7R

Su Campu wrote: »

So, is he just reading the CFS? :rolleyes:

Better than looking at the animals and the amount of berries on trees:D

Iancar29

CFS ON STEROIDS AGAIN!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GWfdbYbDVzg

.... yes..... yes i did just put up a christmas ad before Halloween

Wolfe_IRE

Nice Ian!



By the way the UKMO update for

UK Outlook for Friday 26 Oct 2012 to Friday 9 Nov 2012:

Indications are that through the end of October and into early November mixed autumnal weather will dominate across the UK. There will be some dry and bright periods, interspersed with showers or longer periods of rain. Overall the rainfall signal is for near normal amounts. Temperatures are likely to be below or perhaps at times well below average for the time of year, with some chilly nights possible and the risk of some wintry showers for upland parts of Scotland.

cherryghost

Don't want to be pedantic but..

What's the difference between this and the FI thread at this point?

doccy

cherryghost wrote: »

Don't want to be pedantic but..

What's the difference between this and the FI thread at this point?

This is the light hearted not-clog-up-the-technical-threads?

leahyl

First actual really cold morning this morning with even a touch of frost! 4 degrees on the temperature gauge in the car on the way to work and even some hard frost on the windscreen :pac::D

diceyd

car was showing 3 degrees at half 8 this morn

pad199207

Low of 1.7c here this morning

mcriot29

pad199207 wrote: »

Low of 1.7c here this morning

What a diffrence a few days make warsaw was -3 this morning and coldest before that was like 6c

Lucreto

Just to say I looked around for Michael Gallagher prediction but I found nothing. I though someone would pick it up by now. Even Donegal Daily would have said something by now. So the wait continues.

Here is a forecast from Ed Elliot Head of the Perse School in Cambridge (i.e a random bloke telling us what we want to hear. )

2012-13 is likely to be a colder than average winter characterised by disrupted westerly airflows, and weeks when blocking anticyclones bring very cold air in from the North and East. We can expect a number of periods of extreme frost and some significant snow falls. The reason for the colder than average winter weather is the location of the jet stream. In recent months, the jet stream has tended to sink further south than usual. For much of the summer instead of sitting over Northern Scotland, the jet stream ran across England and Wales and was tracked by low pressure systems which gave us the second wettest summer on record. If the jet stream maintains its southerly trajectory this winter then instead of sitting over England as usual, it could meander south to France. This would expose the UK to much colder polar maritime air.


There could be significant snow before Christmas, and as such The Perse has already begun its bad winter weather planning. The UK has a poor record at coping with cold weather, and too much of our infrastructure closes down too quickly in the event of modest snowfalls. The Perse is stockpiling salt and shovels, and aims to be open whenever possible. In bad weather parents must decide whether it is safe to send their children to school, but schools should do everything reasonably possible to stay open. Once schools close parents have to stay at home to look after children, and an economy already struggling with snow induced transport disruption grinds to a halt. We may be entering a period of colder winters, and if so we will all have to become better at coping with the white stuff.

http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/Education/Ed-Elliotts-Blog/Prepare-for-a-cold-winter-11102012.htm

As I said exactly what we want to hear.

Su Campu

So the basis of his "forecast" is one big IF. If the jet stream continues to do what it has been doing then it will be cold. I don't see any forecasting in there, as in will it continue to do so? :rolleyes:

In recent months, the jet stream has tended to sink further south than usual. For much of the summer instead of sitting over Northern Scotland, the jet stream ran across England and Wales and was tracked by low pressure systems which gave us the second wettest summer on record. If the jet stream maintains its southerly trajectory this winter then instead of sitting over England as usual, it could meander south to France. This would expose the UK to much colder polar maritime air.

All these "forecasts" are a joke at this stage.

Lucreto

Su Campu wrote: »

So the basis of his "forecast" is one big IF. If the jet stream continues to do what it has been doing then it will be cold. I don't see any forecasting in there, as in will it continue to do so? :rolleyes:



All these "forecasts" are a joke at this stage.

We all know that after last year and this is scraping the bottom of the barrel. I like hearing people opinions on the matter.

Maybe someone should make a new topic just for these long shot forecasts and future Hopecasts. At least people who don't like reading them don't have to look at them.

gbee

I heard and ad of broadcast radio today about the 24th of October and what to do if you don't want snow on your screen .............

Yippeeeee!!!!!!!!!! I ran out of the room ..... in excitement, actually I walked, but my heart was singing.

It's another sign.

mcriot29

Su campu whats your views on the winter do you think it will be a cold winter

maquiladora

Personally, I think the best thing to do is just anticipate an average Irish winter. That way if it does turn out to be average then you're not going to be let down, and if it ends up being any more interesting than average then that will be a bonus.

weatherfiend

But the expectation is half the fun!!!!

Su Campu

mcriot29 wrote: »

Su campu whats your views on the winter do you think it will be a cold winter

I honestly don't know. No one does, yet everyone seems to think we're in for the big one. Like they say every year. Tell the people what they want to hear.

Now maybe we are in for a record cold one. Or a mild one. Or an average one. My best guess would be that the weak ENSO conditions and the SSTs the way they are will favour high pressure off the Canadian Maritimes in the early part of the winter. This could bring the jet south across the Atlantic and set up a neutral to negative NAO and a more northwesterly airmass presence over us. The Russian high will probably make frequent excursions westward, bringing the battle ground near to us. Which wins is anyone's guess. I would guess that up to Christmas we won't see many proper cold easterly outbreaks, more cool modified Greenland airflows and marginal situations. After that I haven't a clue.

This is my best guess, but I have little more than average faith in it.

icesnowfrost

well i personally believe we couldnt be that unlucky to have back to back mild winters in a row...since 2007 we had good snowfall every year untill last years depressingly mild winter..i believe that we will have a colder than average winter this year. im going with just a gut feeling and from what iv been reading on these posts.....and hey whats wrong with hopecasting in this country all we have is hoping it will snow for winter.:D

catch.23

icesnowfrost wrote: »

well i personally believe we couldnt be that unlucky to have back to back mild winters in a row...since 2007 we had good snowfall every year untill last years depressingly mild winter..i believe that we will have a colder than average winter this year. im going with just a gut feeling and from what iv been reading on these posts.....and hey whats wrong with hopecasting in this country all we have is hoping it will snow for winter.:D

You mean like the 10-15 back to back mild winters from the late 90's til recently? Fortunately/unfortunately the weather doesn't have memory, and as a mild winter is infinitely more likely than a cold one at the best of times, it is currently extremely likely that we will have a mild one. That said, cold can't be ruled out at any time from now to April, it's just not all that likely.

Sponge Bob

Oh LOOK!! :eek: It's a Positive NAO!

ZX7R

Kildare County Council is issuing a road safety warning

Its as temperatures overnight are expected to drop significantly

The forecast is for lows of between zero and 4 degrees Celsius

That will give rise to patches of frost, ice and fog

KCC says drivers are advised to take extra care on the roads over the weekend.
SOURSE:KFM radio,in local news
Might be worth taking it handy if you are traveling tonight or early tomorrow morning.

Wolfe_IRE

A rather sustained negative dip for the AO. Ultimately, it serves to keep us a relatively cold setup for much of the rest of October. If this were January we would be in a different situation.

M.T. Cranium

I would love to contribute something new to this discussion but for now I have to stick with the earlier outlook forecast which is a mixed bag of variable, mild and cold (in that order) for the three main winter months. I am not less optimistic about prospects for some cold and therefore snowy intervals now that we are well into October and the pattern appears cool and unsettled for most of this month. Perhaps this actually tilts the balance of probability a bit towards a colder winter. I would stress that my outlook is highly experimental and I don't attempt to cloak these forecasts in some aura of inevitable fulfillment, so in other words, place on back page of newspaper not front. Or just wrap in a newspaper.

HellFireClub

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I would love to contribute something new to this discussion but for now I have to stick with the earlier outlook forecast which is a mixed bag of variable, mild and cold (in that order) for the three main winter months. I am not less optimistic about prospects for some cold and therefore snowy intervals now that we are well into October and the pattern appears cool and unsettled for most of this month. Perhaps this actually tilts the balance of probability a bit towards a colder winter. I would stress that my outlook is highly experimental and I don't attempt to cloak these forecasts in some aura of inevitable fulfillment, so in other words, place on back page of newspaper not front. Or just wrap in a newspaper.

Is that our winter forecast for 2012?!? :mad::mad::mad::mad:

Sponge Bob

No. It is rather obviously an October forecast.

Deep Easterly

10 Celsius difference between highest and lowest temps over the country on the 2pm reports tonight. 10c at Valentia and 0c at Mt. Dillon:


From: http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

with an range of 8.0c in Co. Galway alone (Mace: 9.0c/Athenry: 1.0c)
A chilly, dank feeling 1.6c here in sham town.

Jaffusmaximus

Dundalk is freezing today, most of morning 3 degrees and a heavy frost early on. Defiantly more winter like than Autumnal out.

Smkopite

Kippure wrote: »

mcriot29 wrote: »

Yep hopefully,
I think joe b is going by the shift in the pdo did he not predict winters 2013-14-15 would be very cold for europe .
Anyone know when the postman gives his winter forecast ???
I have a book on the mini ice age winters and there seems to be a mild winter in between bad winters then, i expected last year to be a mild one i predict this winter could be a very cold one , funny how joe b is giving his ideas so early does he spot something like the daltion winters where

http://notrickszone.com/2010/09/10/joe-bastardi-future-shock-brutal-winters-ahead-from-2013-on-now-into-a-major-la-nina/


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ztuzbuiF6rE 46 minutes in he talks about Our future cold winters. But over all good speech

Bastardi says could b coldest in 50 years

mcriot29

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

A rather sustained negative dip for the AO. Ultimately, it serves to keep us a relatively cold setup for much of the rest of October. If this were January we would be in a different situation.

I dont think it would most of the winds are west based theres not been east or north winds , so if this was jan we would still be far to mild for snow