Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

blackbird99

heavy shower of hail this evening about 5,

006 by blackbird1973, on Flickr

jimmy.d

http://ukweather.wordpress.com/winter-201213/

Sponge Bob

jimmy.d wrote: »

http://ukweather.wordpress.com/winter-201213/

Thank you for your insightful commentary. I'll quote from that link for you.

My regular readers will know that my forecast for last winter went spectacularly wrong, so much so in fact that the weather was the complete opposite to what I had forecasted.

and then I stopped reading!

Nabber

At least he is honest about it. Some people who predicted a cold winter for UK & Irl try to worm their way out by twisting their own words. Sad really!

Nice and detailed all the same.

jimmy.d

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Thank you for your insightful commentary. I'll quote from that link for you.



and then I stopped reading!

at least he admits it not like some i know:p

Wolfe_IRE

Nabber wrote: »

Nice and detailed all the same.

It is in all fairness. This fellow is an enthusiast like the rest of us. His is another opinion to add to the pot and that's what discussing the weather is all about. For what it's worth I do read his updates and he does a very good job throughout the year.

Su Campu

Yes, but I wish he'd use full stops from time to time!!!

Wolfe_IRE

Su Campu wrote: »

Yes, but I wish he'd use full stops from time to time!!!

As opposed to overuse of exclamation marks?

Sponge Bob

Su Campu wrote: »

Yes, but I wish he'd use full stops from time to time!!!

Yeah but everyone knows the way to get the snow bunnies a het up and a leppin is to use long unpunctuated sentences which convey a certain menacing meaningfulness which may or may not be well founded in fact or in an approximation to fact or in broad agreement with a selection of disparate facts all things considered and with the benefit of double hindsight where single hindsight at 19:20 resolution might give a close enough resolution to exactitude in the first place innit the way it is that innit now that commas are sort of 1970 sort of things them and anyway ye'll all know excellencio sponge del bob is trending cold and large cold even when the sentences go long seeing as he can actually do a long sentence that does not need a comma strictly speaking and yes that is a forecast if not precisely one about the weather or climate. Oh and > !!!!!!

Sponge Bob

jimmy.d wrote: »

at least he admits it not like some i know:p

You must mean Bastardi and Vogan

jimmy.d

Smkopite wrote: »

Bastardi says could b coldest in 50 years

ya and here he is talking about it about 8 mins in.http://www.blogtalkradio.com/wiseguysofweather/2012/10/08/oct-7th--wise-guys-of-weather--joe-bastardi-joe-daleo

doccy

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Yeah but everyone knows the way to get the snow bunnies a het up and a leppin is to use long unpunctuated sentences which convey a certain menacing meaningfulness which may or may not be well founded in fact or in an approximation to fact or in broad agreement with a selection of disparate facts all things considered and with the benefit of double hindsight where single hindsight at 19:20 resolution might give a close enough resolution to exactitude in the first place innit the way it is that innit now that commas are sort of 1970 sort of things them and anyway ye'll all know excellencio sponge del bob is trending cold and large cold even when the sentences go long seeing as he can actually do a long sentence that does not need a comma strictly speaking and yes that is a forecast if not precisely one about the weather or climate. Oh and > !!!!!!

tl;dr

StormGazer.11

Sponge Bob wrote: »

You must mean Bastardi and Vogan

They're not the only two who got it horribly, horribly...... HORRIBLY wrong but yes there's no denying that Vogan and co. do not like admitting they were wrong.

As for the other forecaster, at least he's admitted his mistakes and to give him some bit of credit he has gone into reasoning behind his thoughts for this year. The usual pinch of salt theory obviously applies but it is nice to get different views on what could play out. I have to admit I'm more on the snow bunny side but I still appreciate an effort at an LRF even if its for the mildest of winter weather

Sponge Bob

Very fair stormgazer. My general attitude towards those who got Ireland/UK wrong in oct/nov 2011 is that I could see no evidence whatsoever for a looming cold winter at that time.

This winter ...not sure yet. But there certainly is more evidence to back a colder forecast at the moment. Colder does not mean snow all the same...a spot of Graupel Ghoulery perhaps.

You'll soon see my 3 month forecast anyway ......... when the winter forecast comp is underway.

I expect many of those who make the most noise in this here thread not to participate in that competition...AND that IS a forecast FTW.

ZX7R

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Very fair stormgazer. My general attitude towards those who got Ireland/UK wrong in oct/nov 2011 is that I could see no evidence whatsoever for a looming cold winter at that time.

This winter ...not sure yet. But there certainly is more evidence to back a colder forecast at the moment. Colder does not mean snow all the same...a spot of Graupel Ghoulery perhaps.

You'll soon see my 3 month forecast anyway ......... when the winter forecast comp is underway.

I expect many of those who make the most noise in this here thread not to participate in that competition...AND that IS a forecast FTW.

Are you not being a bit harsh on some of the poster on here bob,it would be a very quite forum with out them,there would only be a hand full of people posting then, As for the winter forecast comp i would not have the knowledge to do a forecast ,maybe i will copy and past vogans or mad maddens for the laugh:)

Pangea

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I expect many of those who make the most noise in this here thread not to participate in that competition...AND that IS a forecast FTW.

ZX7R wrote: »

Are you not being a bit harsh on some of the poster on here bob,it would be a very quite forum with out them,

Dont worry ZX7R, Sponge Bob himself is one of the top posters in this thread, all the signs of a closet snow lover! :P

Sponge Bob

ZX7R wrote: »

Are you not being a bit harsh on some of the poster on here bob,it would be a very quite forum with out them,there would only be a hand full of people posting then

Only on those who attack posters who posit evidence based rationales for it not being about to snow...and there are a LOT of them here at this time of year.

LUCKILY they are confined to one thread nowadays..in past years they overran the place.

jimmy.d

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Only on those who attack posters who posit evidence based rationales for it not being about to snow...and there are a LOT of them here at this time of year.

LUCKILY they are confined to one thread nowadays..in past years they overran the place.

no one is putting a gun to your head to come into this thread. you can always press the ignore button

ZX7R

It will be intresting to see JAMSTEC Seasonal forecast charts have to say this month should be out next week the end of next week i think[www.jamstec co.jp]
looking at the charts with the very little knolage i have and other factors,ie ice melt ect,i think the winter up to christmas will colder than average more frosts fogs mixed with mild wet and windy weather,simlar i think to 09/10 and a brife snowy spell in january that my two cents:o

Wolfe_IRE

I am seeing similarities to the Sept-Oct 2010 in relation to the cooler than average and wetter than average conditions, as well as cooler seas around Ireland and the UK. I can see us having a cooler than average winter.

Looking back on the winter 2010-11 posting from MT in September 2010, I think we need to tip our hats to him
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=68190616&postcount=210

mcriot29

Vogan was wrong last year as where most rays weather page was spot on from what i rem

Calibos

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Very fair stormgazer. My general attitude towards those who got Ireland/UK wrong in oct/nov 2011 is that I could see no evidence whatsoever for a looming cold winter at that time.

This is like some lad in Cork saying ' I told you so, all the forecasters were wrong, I was right. There was no snow Nov/Dec 2010!!'

Well No, not in Cork there wasn't but 30 miles up the road and over the rest of the country there was.

You were wrong about the looming cold Winter. The forecasters were right. It just so happens that the dividing line ended up over mid Wales instead of Cork last Winter.

Sponge Bob

Calibos wrote: »

Cork last Winter.

You mean an event that lasted 9 days or so in February so what about the other 83 odd days in the season. Does your definition of an accurate winter forecast really hold where 9 days are correct out of 90....and then only 100 miles plus east of Dublin ??

Sure I'll forecast it will be really cold in Russia this winter and extrahapamolate that to Ballybunion by that logic...in order to be 'proven' correct.

jimmy.d

Sponge Bob wrote: »

You mean an event that lasted 9 days or so in February so what about the other 83 odd days in the season. Does your definition of an accurate winter forecast really hold where 9 days are correct out of 90....and then only 100 miles plus east of Dublin ??

Sure I'll forecast it will be really cold in Russia this winter and extrahapamolate that to Ballybunion by that logic...in order to be 'proven' correct.

squonk

When is MT's winter forecast coming out? I know he mentioned October previously but any update on when exactly this month? We're mid way through now.

Lucreto

squonk wrote: »

When is MT's winter forecast coming out? I know he mentioned October previously but any update on when exactly this month? We're mid way through now.

He is not sure on how the winter will turn out it can go either way

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I would love to contribute something new to this discussion but for now I have to stick with the earlier outlook forecast which is a mixed bag of variable, mild and cold (in that order) for the three main winter months. I am not less optimistic about prospects for some cold and therefore snowy intervals now that we are well into October and the pattern appears cool and unsettled for most of this month. Perhaps this actually tilts the balance of probability a bit towards a colder winter. I would stress that my outlook is highly experimental and I don't attempt to cloak these forecasts in some aura of inevitable fulfillment, so in other words, place on back page of newspaper not front. Or just wrap in a newspaper.

gbee

Calibos wrote: »

Well No, not in Cork there wasn't but 30 miles up the road and over the rest of the country there was.

I take your point about the Cork Weather Enthusiast Whiners Club, we are a very active group.

Just on a point though, Cork was smothered in Snow winter/2010/11, my own back yard did not melt for three months.

But still though we only got a dusting to everyone else .......... :P

Wolfe_IRE

gbee wrote: »

But still though we only got a dusting to everyone else .......... :P

One more dusting than me so

Saw one snow flake but the cat ate it

Jaffusmaximus

Depressing read from the BBC for their monthly weather outlook!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

icesnowfrost

its a lovely cold crisp morning in drogheda at 6° :cool: