Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

mrweatherman

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

Depressing read from the BBC for their monthly weather outlook!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

but if you try to remember back oct/nov 2009 we had near same set up very mild, heavy rain with flooding here in cork then it quickly froze over mid november and near a week after the rest of country had the great white stuff cork finally was dumped on late friday evening. Snow joke when up fairhill which is surrounded by hills and well cork ppl arent use to snow so many kept trying to drive up and down the hills made a meal of their cars. Trucks couldnt get up to Apple saw one driver park his truck up against a tree to stop it going down the steep hill.

Calibos

Sponge Bob wrote: »

You mean an event that lasted 9 days or so in February so what about the other 83 odd days in the season. Does your definition of an accurate winter forecast really hold where 9 days are correct out of 90....and then only 100 miles plus east of Dublin ??

Sure I'll forecast it will be really cold in Russia this winter and extrahapamolate that to Ballybunion by that logic...in order to be 'proven' correct.

Perhaps I have faulty recall. Was it really only 9 days in February in the UK? I thought England had it for a lot longer along with the rest if Europe and the 9 days was with snow rather than ice and the incursion west which stalled over mid Wales. I wonder does my main point still have some merit though. That you seem to write of all those forecasters who went for another long icy/ snow spell in Europe and the UK as being 100% wrong. Just because our corner if Europe didn't get it....Did any of them say that Ireland ws in for it specifically. When you talk about 'those ' forecasters do you really mean just Vogen or all of them?

Sponge Bob

Calibos wrote: »

Perhaps I have faulty recall. Was it really only 9 days in February in the UK?

11 days now I checked, 2nd to 12th.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/london/ec2v-7/february-weather/328328

ZX7R

JAMSTEC have released there seasonal up date for October today they are still going for below average temperatures for Western Europe for the winter.

pad199207

Metcheck going for a "Slightly Milder but much wetter than average" winter

maquiladora

ZX7R wrote: »

JAMSTEC have released there seasonal up date for October today they are still going for below average temperatures for Western Europe for the winter.

Thats quite a change from their July, August and September forecasts which were showing most of northern Europe above average or neutral.

Here is the latest anyway.



How did JAMSTEC do previous winters?

ZX7R

maquiladora,they have a pretty good track record but were out a little bit last year as the cold didn't reach us,they seem to got the temperatures spot on for the summer

maquiladora

ZX7R wrote: »

maquiladora,they have a pretty good track record but were out a little bit last year as the cold didn't reach us,they seem to got the temperatures spot on for the summer

I just saw the archives available. Yeah looks like they got last winter wrong anyway.

icesnowfrost

here is a little something. trip down memory lane.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6EhAsnh1aw&feature=related

weatherfiend

icesnowfrost wrote: »

here is a little something. trip down memory lane.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G6EhAsnh1aw&feature=related

Great video

pad199207

Now this is a memory!, Great vid for whoever did it

I wonder will we ever get a another chance of it ....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hX6yL2X7wz8

Red Pepper

All the old people and farmers in my area (West Galway) are predicting another very cold winter. Are they on to something or is it just a sense of fear after the 2 very cold winters recently?

HellFireClub

I'm no weather expert, but are we not just still seeing a simple enough continuation of the exact same weather patterns that we have been looking at all summer really except for cooler temperatures consistent with the time of year, as in more relentless & heavy rain coming in on low pressure systems from the South West with our prevailing wind?

'Cos that's all I'm seeing right now and it's consistent with what I've been looking at for months...

Wolfe_IRE

The end of this week through next week should help the IMT for October recover somewhat




The AO is also heading toward neutral/low positive territory.

Sponge Bob

HellFireClub wrote: »

I'm no weather expert, but are we not just still seeing a simple enough continuation of the exact same weather patterns that we have been looking at all summer

Thats what I think anyway.

Blizzard 2010

Jamstec is going for a cold dry winter. Unless something drasticis happen soon .Looks like we are going to get the winter some of us dream of:D

Loughc

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Jamstec is going for a cold dry winter. Unless something drasticis happen soon .Looks like we are going to get the winter some of us dream of:D

What makes you so sure??

maquiladora

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Jamstec is going for a cold dry winter. Unless something drasticis happen soon .Looks like we are going to get the winter some of us dream of:D

It's worth remembering that it's only a computer model, seasonal models are fairly hit and miss, it wouldn't take anything drastic for that forecast to be wrong. JAMSTEC got it wrong last winter.

I think its still about a month too soon to be able to begin to get an idea of what the early stages of winter might be like.

Blizzard 2010

maquiladora wrote: »

It's worth remembering that it's only a computer model, seasonal models are fairly hit and miss, it wouldn't take anything drastic for that forecast to be wrong. JAMSTEC got it wrong last winter.

I think its still about a month too soon to be able to begin to get an idea of what the early stages of winter might be like.

I dissagree by this time last year a mild winter was on the cards. Just because it got it wrong last year doesnt necessarily say it will be wrong again this year.

Sappa

When are these models predicting the cold spells to start as the forecast for the next 15-20 days looks mild with low temps of 6-8'c.

Blizzard 2010

Sappa wrote: »

When are these models predicting the cold spells to start as the forecast for the next 15-20 days looks mild with low temps of 6-8'c.

My guess will be a month from now we will start seeing tentative signs
Incidently Met check are also going for a mild winter. Latest GFS F1 looks quite cool

StormGazer.11

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

I dissagree by this time last year a mild winter was on the cards. Just because it got it wrong last year doesnt necessarily say it will be wrong again this year.

What do you mean a mild winter was on the cards by this time last year? Anything could have happened, many forecasters got it wrong but as pointed out previously the cold line happened to fall to our east and not consume us.

Having said that, I would like to see JAMSTEC's models get is right this year, I'm all for the cold

Duiske

Anyone with a tendency to get over-excited would be well advised not to look at the current GFS run beyond 170hrs.

Blizzard 2010

StormGazer.11 wrote: »

What do you mean a mild winter was on the cards by this time last year? Anything could have happened, many forecasters got it wrong but as pointed out previously the cold line happened to fall to our east and not consume us.

Having said that, I would like to see JAMSTEC's models get is right this year, I'm all for the cold

Jamstec seems to be pointing to a blocking of some shape or form so is the British MetO. In relation to last year, the ECM was pointing to a mild winter, ECM was the most consistent of the models last year. It was the 9th of Movember last year when govenment agencies along with Met Eireann announced that there was no severe weather in sight( I could be wrong with this date). Quite honestly I have a suspicion that it will be the reverse this year. I agree with you that it is still early days but saying that we are heading to the second half of Autumn ,:D

maquiladora

Duiske wrote: »

Anyone with a tendency to get over-excited would be well advised not to look at the current GFS run beyond 170hrs.

Also one of the biggest cold outliers I've seen in years. 12Z GFS is trolling cold lovers. :pac:



Btw, this means the 12Z run was garbage after about the 24th.

StormGazer.11

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Jamstec seems to be pointing to a blocking of some shape or form so is the British MetO. In relation to last year, the ECM was pointing to a mild winter, ECM was the most consistent of the models last year. It was the 9th of Movember last year when govenment agencies along with Met Eireann announced that there was no severe weather in sight( I could be wrong with this date). Quite honestly I have a suspicion that it will be the reverse this year. I agree with you that it is still early days but saying that we are heading to the second half of Autumn ,:D

I am far from a great chart reader (damn colour blindness issue ) but one can't help but get a small bit of hope when more charts and agencies point towards the possibility of a colder than average winter. I'll wait for another few weeks before any chickens are counted though

leahyl

All I'm saying is: 1947 :-P

StormGazer.11

leahyl wrote: »

All I'm saying is: 1947 :-P

Ever the optimist leahyl. I don't think we should even get any hope because the NO SNOW ZONE will probably draw a nice curtain around cork

Blizzard 2010

Real exciting stuff

IrishGurll

What does every one keep saying "there's never any snow in Cork " ?