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Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

mcriot29 · 2012-06-10 14:17:01

I know its summer but any one have any views on the signs for 2012 winter , i think a pos Nao so a mild standerd winter for ireland Link belOw about winter http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?#38;showtopic=26562&st=300 ***MOD WARNING*** Keep it on topic folks , don't attack the person posting, questioning the post is…

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#992 20-10-2012 5:59pm
mcriot29

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Su Campu wrote: »

Where do you get these facts from? There's no record of snow then - on the ground or otherwise.

It was either 08 or 09 west dublin had snow end of oct while east had 2 days of thunder i remember the snow on ground
http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=30&month=10&year=2008&hour=12&map=0&mode=0
Also look here
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/1029/1225197273438.html

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#993 20-10-2012 6:04pm
HellFireClub

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Edit
There just looking for business.

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#994 20-10-2012 6:07pm
Su Campu

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That's the 3rd time this week that that link's been posted. They're insurance guys so are misquoting what was forecast to get a bit of extra business. :rolleyes:

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#995 20-10-2012 6:09pm
Su Campu

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mcriot29 wrote: »

It was either 08 or 09 west dublin had snow end of oct while east had 2 days of thunder i remember the snow on ground
http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=30&month=10&year=2008&hour=12&map=0&mode=0
Also look here
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/1029/1225197273438.html

But the snow on the ground in Dublin? Casement has a couple brief reports of sleet mixed with rain.

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#996 20-10-2012 6:14pm
Pangea

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Similar to last years

http://www.donegaldaily.com/2011/10/10/revealed-worst-winter-ever-on-way-to-donegal-as-20c-to-hit-county/

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#997 20-10-2012 6:19pm
mcriot29

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Su Campu wrote: »

But the snow on the ground in Dublin? Casement has a couple brief reports of sleet mixed with rain.

There was snow on ground is west dublin it lasted over a day i rem it east dub had none just lots of thunder no rain

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#998 20-10-2012 6:21pm
maquiladora

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Pangea wrote: »

Similar to last years

http://www.donegaldaily.com/2011/10/10/revealed-worst-winter-ever-on-way-to-donegal-as-20c-to-hit-county/

To be fair there is a difference though, Madden is just a chancer with a website, those BWS guys are made up of former UK Met Office and Royal Navy staff, so at least they have some kind of experience and qualifications. Having said that, I don't think anyone or any computer model can predict long range with much degree of certainty. The weather will still do what it wants to do!

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#999 20-10-2012 6:25pm
Su Campu

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mcriot29 wrote: »

There was snow on ground is west dublin it lasted over a day i rem it east dub had none just lots of thunder no rain

Casement is in west Dublin. Now there were also some hail reports, so that could have lasted on the ground.

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#1000 20-10-2012 6:29pm
mcriot29

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Su Campu wrote: »

Casement is in west Dublin. Now there were also some hail reports, so that could have lasted on the ground.

It was snow and was in blanch area defo not hail

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#1001 20-10-2012 6:33pm
ninebeanrows

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Very interesting charts tonight, all just a bit early though, if it was the 20th of November i'd be getting excited but it's only the 20th of October!

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#1002 20-10-2012 6:36pm
DOCARCH

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mcriot29 wrote: »

It was snow and was in blanch area defo not hail

Are you mixing up with October 2003?

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/oct03.pdf

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#1003 20-10-2012 6:49pm
Not

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mcriot29 wrote: »

It was either 08 or 09 west dublin had snow end of oct while east had 2 days of thunder i remember the snow on ground
http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=30&month=10&year=2008&hour=12&map=0&mode=0
Also look here
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/ireland/2008/1029/1225197273438.html

That 2 days of thunder was definitely before 2005. I remember it well as I was working across the road from a telecom eireann mast. It sounded like someone was dropping bombs on us !!:eek:

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#1004 20-10-2012 6:59pm
average_runner

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mcriot29 wrote: »

There was snow on ground is west dublin it lasted over a day i rem it east dub had none just lots of thunder no rain

There was no snow in October in lucan at that time as was doing marathon training. There was snow in November 2010

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#1005 20-10-2012 7:31pm
Harps

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Thread from back then confirms it did snow, can't imagine it lasted on the ground for two day though

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055407835&page=9

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#1006 20-10-2012 7:37pm
mcriot29

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Harps wrote: »

Thread from back then confirms it did snow, can't imagine it lasted on the ground for two day though

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055407835&page=9

Yep i new in was 08 and it lasted in blanch for over a day

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#1007 20-10-2012 8:25pm
icesnowfrost

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in 08 we got loads of snow in drogheda and it lasted for about 3 days....it started snowing in the evening and with in a few hrs we had about 5 inches :cool:

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#1008 20-10-2012 8:41pm
patneve2

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Not wrote: »

That 2 days of thunder was definitely before 2005. I remember it well as I was working across the road from a telecom eireann mast. It sounded like someone was dropping bombs on us !!:eek:

That was October 2003

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#1009 20-10-2012 10:18pm
torrential1

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Thewweatheroutlook with Brian Gaze is increasingly going towards an exceptionally cold spell for October starting at the end of next week. The earliest I have seen snow ever in Ireland (excluding very high ground and mountains) was in 2008... It snowed the day before Halloween and there was a brief dusting at Enniskerry, Co. Wicklow (about 100 metres above sea level).

Does anyone have any info on very early or indeed late snowfalls in Ireland? The latest I witnessed was 7th May 1997 when heavy snow showers hit many parts. I was living in Co. Sligo then.

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#1010 20-10-2012 10:37pm
Sponge Bob

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torrential1 wrote: »

Thewweatheroutlook with Brian Gaze is increasingly going towards an exceptionally cold spell for October starting at the end of next week.

"Exceptionally Cold spell" for October as you put it implies c. -5c temps for at least a few nights.

This is the latest Gaze article.

Show me the bit where he says October will be EXCEPTIONALLY cold in Ireland or say nearby in NW England or Wales.

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#1011 20-10-2012 10:44pm
torrential1

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Sponge Bob wrote: »

"Exceptionally Cold spell" for October as you put it implies c. -5c temps for at least a few nights.

This is the latest Gaze article.

Show me the bit where he says October will be EXCEPTIONALLY cold in Ireland or say nearby in NW England or Wales.

Woh... Just a tad aggressive there Sir... back off. I only quoting what I read and made no specific references to Ireland. And yes I am aware that exceptionally cold in October is nothing like what ciukd happen in December or January under similar setups.

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#1012 20-10-2012 11:18pm
mcriot29

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torrential1 wrote: »

Woh... Just a tad aggressive there Sir... back off. I only quoting what I read and made no specific references to Ireland. And yes I am aware that exceptionally cold in October is nothing like what ciukd happen in December or January under similar setups.

Yeah a lot on here are aggressive and seem to be a click

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#1013 21-10-2012 1:46am
torrential1

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mcriot29 wrote: »

Yeah a lot on here are aggressive and seem to be a click

Totally agree dude. But I enjoy the forum and learn plenty off others... though there are a few know alls who seem to think they run the show

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#1014 21-10-2012 1:58am
Deep Easterly

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torrential1 wrote: »

Woh... Just a tad aggressive there Sir... back off.

Ah no, Sponge Bob is not aggressive really, he is just a big cuddly snow bunny behind it all! :D

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#1015 21-10-2012 2:03am
Wolfe_IRE

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#1016 21-10-2012 9:27am
maquiladora

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Upper air temps vs 30 year average for next Saturday based on the GFS. -4 to -6 degrees below average over Ireland, but up to -10 further east. Meanwhile uppers over Greenland are +12 degrees above average, which is as high as the scale goes on that chart. Will be interesting to see how close to this it ends up being.

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#1017 21-10-2012 10:49am
Strangegravy

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mcriot29 wrote: »

Yeah a lot on here are aggressive and seem to be a click

torrential1 wrote: »

Totally agree dude. But I enjoy the forum and learn plenty off others... though there are a few know alls who seem to think they run the show

Have to disagree guys, never found it aggressive or cliquey on here. Sure people will challenge you if you post information that other people might rely on, without backing it up with examples or links, but that's a good thing. If it could possibly misinform people, and you're not really sure if it's true then mention that in the post, or better yet, don't post it.

With the amount of "I know a guy whose dog's brother's best friend's owner gets a pain in his left knee when snow is coming..." made up sh*te that can appear on here during the crazy season, it's good to have people on here that can debate both sides, WITHOUT bitchiness or resorting to insults.

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#1018 21-10-2012 11:34am
Jaffusmaximus

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Strangegravy wrote: »

Have to disagree guys, never found it aggressive or cliquey on here. Sure people will challenge you if you post information that other people might rely on, without backing it up with examples or links, but that's a good thing. If it could possibly misinform people, and you're not really sure if it's true then mention that in the post, or better yet, don't post it.

With the amount of "I know a guy whose dog's brother's best friend's owner gets a pain in his left knee when snow is coming..." made up sh*te that can appear on here during the crazy season, it's good to have people on here that can debate both sides, WITHOUT bitchiness or resorting to insults.

A person can be critical without being cynical.

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#1019 21-10-2012 12:17pm
Strangegravy

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Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

A person can be critical without being cynical.

Yeah, but I don't see the cynicism in here.. there can be a lot of trolls so maybe some people are just a bit more suspicious of others.

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#1020 21-10-2012 1:11pm
Sponge Bob

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Brian Gaze did NOT!!!! predict an 'exceptionally cold spell' in 'october' in 'Ireland' ....to be precise!!!!

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#1021 21-10-2012 1:51pm
Tindie

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Looking forward to Friday! At last single figures for everyone.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/20021927

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