Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Sponge Bob

The BBC shows that eg Stornoway temps, by friday, will be about average for this time of year as the mild air mass over the UK and Ireland is pushed south...starting thursday really.

Colder, certainly. Cold, perhaps. Unusual???. Not at all.

BLIZZARD7

Sponge Bob wrote: »

The BBC shows that eg Stornoway temps, by friday, will be about average for this time of year as the mild air mass over the UK and Ireland is pushed south...starting thursday really.

Colder, certainly. Cold, perhaps. Unusual???. Not at all.

Those temps look way too high if current charts come off. Those temps are not unusual- what is expected is much colder than that and is unusual.





Dan

mcriot29

Hey this is bugging me how can the aotank so much if the strat has not hadany reall warming in past few weeks , how can we have this very neg nao and ao if strat is not playing ball, does that not show strat is not that big of an issue, just like 2010 before big freeze there was no signs in strat

jimmy.d

Colder, certainly. Cold, perhaps. Unusual???. Not at all. [/QUOTE]
This is not official scientific data and its for scotland not ireland

maquiladora

Here is the latest UK Met Office thoughts for Friday to Nov 4th, mentioning the cold spell and below average temps.

UK Outlook for Friday 26 Oct 2012 to Sunday 4 Nov 2012:

A cold spell of weather will extend across the UK by the weekend behind a band of rain spreading south. Over the weekend, wintry showers are likely to affect mainly northern and eastern parts of the UK, especially over high ground with some accumulations possible in the north. Elsewhere it will be brighter and drier with spells of sunshine, but it will be cold and windy with a widespread overnight frost likely. Early next week there will be a return to more unsettled conditions from the north and west, with some wet and windy periods likely. Temperatures will remain below average for the time of year with a widespread overnight frost, even in the south.

Updated: 1112 on Sun 21 Oct 2012

Of course since the cold air is coming down to our east, its going to colder in the UK than it is here.

GFS is showing temps down to -2 in Ireland next weekend, which would be 9 degrees below the average minimum October temperature. But thats a long way off still and as we all know things can change a lot in just a few days.

Interesting early cold blast to watch though.

Spindle

I was looking into how the polar vortex was shaping up this year and found this interesting article about last years extreme cold on mainland Europe, gives a good explanation of events.

http://phys.org/news/2012-02-europe-winter-north-america.html

Also of interest was this article about how changes in the polar vortex impact ocean currents and in particular the downwelling of cold water to the south of Greenland.

http://unews.utah.edu/news_releases/stratosphere-targets-deep-sea-to-shape-climate/

Sponge Bob

Spindle wrote: »

I was looking into how the polar vortex was shaping up this year and found this interesting article about last years extreme cold on mainland Europe, gives a good explanation of events.

http://phys.org/news/2012-02-europe-winter-north-america.html

Very good piece Spindle, technical and yet most accessible.

The Oscillation referred to there is currently negative and here are the range of model predictions for the next few weeks.

Spindle

Based on extensive research on how create a winter forecast and sell it I am compiling a winter forecast based on the following principles

1. Use a few sciency sounding words often used out of context and from different fields of science, but hey who will notice.

2. Referencing studies by supposed esteemed scientists with weird names.

3. A few spelling mistakes.

4. Leave them wanting more.

5. Base the forecast on a single event as we all know that weather is not that complicated and a single event is enough to know what will happen in 3 years time.

6. Add something really vague at the end which is a straw to hold onto in the event that forecast does not work out, use this then to cover up the fact and say look I did predict it all along, just got the order exact details and positioning wrong, it did snow and it was minus whatever somewhere on the planet etc etc.

7. Mention Cold :cool:


Winter forecast

Based on the fact that changes in gases in the stratosphere can have such a knock effect in terms of winter and based on the fact that Felix Baumgartner would have been s***ing himself jumping from up there, causing a rise in methane, which in turn precipitates a weakening of the polar vortex causing it to spread over Ireland.

This event has been forecast to happen on the 23rd October, when Mr Baumgartners Methane pocket will position itself at 81 Degrees North, with the pocket in place it will lead to an on rushing of polar winds which will freeze all in sight, based on the trajectory calculations from NASA and correlated with the ESA and verified by Dr Von Windy of Windy Inc research, the winds should reach Ireland at 1:21pm, where the event will be preceeded by a strange rumbling and smell.

This event will cause widespread temp drops and wide spread snow right to sea level. By the 25th of December there should be enough cold in place to have caused oceans to freeze and a huge cold pool in place.

I see in global models a sudden warming though by the 1st of January caused by something or other and all could be okay. Please note these dates are exact dates until my next update which will happen after the event in question.

If you want more detail please check my website to buy a detailed report........

Runs out to sell story to Daily Mail, set up website to sell snow shovels and end of the world supplies .............:rolleyes:

Sponge Bob

Spindle wrote: »

Based on extensive research on how create a winter forecast
Runs out to sell story to Daily Mail, set up website to sell snow shovels and end of the world supplies .............:rolleyes:

Firstly change your username to PiersBastardVogan and launch your own Youtube channel where you dress up as one half of the RubberBandits in front of a flickering array of lurid and portentous MaqCharts while moaning about snow and freezing icescapes etc etc

You know the minute you start your youtube channel and mention snow on it then some muppet will post an

OMG!!!!! :eek: Look!!!!!!!!!! :eek: > http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XHXdmSMBog

in here.

Iancar29

Spindle wrote: »

Based on extensive research on how create a winter forecast and sell it I am compiling a winter forecast based on the following principles

1. Use a few sciency sounding words often used out of context and from different fields of science, but hey who will notice.

2. Referencing studies by supposed esteemed scientists with weird names.

3. A few spelling mistakes.

4. Leave them wanting more.

5. Base the forecast on a single event as we all know that weather is not that complicated and a single event is enough to know what will happen in 3 years time.

6. Add something really vague at the end which is a straw to hold onto in the event that forecast does not work out, use this then to cover up the fact and say look I did predict it all along, just got the order exact details and positioning wrong, it did snow and it was minus whatever somewhere on the planet etc etc.

7. Mention Cold :cool:


Winter forecast.....

Sponge Bob

12z GEFS develops less of a cold plunge towards the UK friday and saturday as a High in the classic negative NAO position expands east over Ireland and holds off the lower pressure Scandinavan plunge.

MT hinted at this possibility in his daily earlier...that we might be under a NW next weekend rather than an easterly. Watch that high.

12z GEFS

Su Campu

mcriot29 wrote: »

Hey this is bugging me how can the aotank so much if the strat has not hadany reall warming in past few weeks , how can we have this very neg nao and ao if strat is not playing ball, does that not show strat is not that big of an issue, just like 2010 before big freeze there was no signs in strat

It's still too early. The stratosphere has not entered the polar night yet. Another couple of weeks before the absence of solar radiation takes effect and sets up the polar vortex. It is from then on that we will be on the look out for warmings.

Wolfe_IRE

A spell of fine autumn weather (misty in some spots) will dominate much of the coming week. Temperatures will peak at 12-16 C during Tuesday to Thursday. Temperatures will be a few degrees lower where fog/mist lingers.

It is now increasingly likely that we will see a transition to colder weather by Friday (26 Oct), which will last into next weekend. Some wintry precipitation is possible on higher ground in northern parts later on Saturday night with some wintry showers of hail or sleet possible at lower levels in the northern half of the country during Sunday (28 Oct).
The extent and longevity of this cold spell is far from certain due to a divergence in the output of the main weather models. All agree however, that temperatures will return to single figures during the daytime from Friday with the mercury levels dropping below zero away from coastal areas on Friday night and Saturday night.


The featured image (above) shows 850hpa temperatures (temps at approx 1500m) on Friday afternoon and 2M temps (close to surface temps) on Saturday morning.

Present indications are that temperatures during the first week of November will be at or slightly below average with further night-time frosts likely.Rainfall amounts are expected to be below average for the time of year. This outlook is backed up by in the below graph from Meteociel.fr.

mrweatherman

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

A spell of fine autumn weather (misty in some spots) will dominate much of the coming week. Temperatures will peak at 12-16 C during Tuesday to Thursday. Temperatures will be a few degrees lower where fog/mist lingers.

It is now increasingly likely that we will see a transition to colder weather by Friday (26 Oct), which will last into next weekend. Some wintry precipitation is possible on higher ground in northern parts later on Saturday night with some wintry showers of hail or sleet possible at lower levels in the northern half of the country during Sunday (28 Oct).
The extent and longevity of this cold spell is far from certain due to a divergence in the output of the main weather models. All agree however, that temperatures will return to single figures during the daytime from Friday with the mercury levels dropping below zero away from coastal areas on Friday night and Saturday night.


The featured image (above) shows 850hpa temperatures (temps at approx 1500m) on Friday afternoon and 2M temps (close to surface temps) on Saturday morning.

Present indications are that temperatures during the first week of November will be at or slightly below average with further night-time frosts likely.Rainfall amounts are expected to be below average for the time of year. This outlook is backed up by in the below graph from Meteociel.fr.

B

thats sounds great wolfe but is that in our great dream world of cold and snow or can you please say where you found the forecast. Sounds a little to good to be true ;-) !!!

Wolfe_IRE

mrweatherman wrote: »

B

thats sounds great wolfe but is that in our great dream world of cold and snow or can you please say where you found the forecast. Sounds a little to good to be true ;-) !!!

I just wrote it. No dream scenario for snow lovers there really mr weatherman. Basically, it's a case of things turning colder from Friday. At the moment it looks like there will be a 8-10c drop in temperatures between Thursday eve and Friday eve. Temps will be around 6-8c in northern areas by friday eve. The source of the cold airmass and how it has reached us is what is of interest here. All the building blocks required for a cold outbreak are there. The only problem for anyone looking for snow is that it has come a tad bit too early to deliver any significant potential for wintry weather. That said, some wintry showers are possible in parts of Ulster and summits elsewhere in the latter of the weekend. That's how it looks at this point and the outlooks is subject to change.

icesnowfrost

here is a little something from my street in december 2010 to cheer people up and get u all excited.........enjoy :cool:

Su Campu

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

I just wrote it. No dream scenario for snow lovers there really mr weatherman. Basically, it's a case of things turning colder from Friday. At the moment it looks like there will be a 8-10c drop in temperatures between Thursday eve and Friday eve. Temps will be around 6-8c in northern areas by friday eve. The source of the cold airmass and how it has reached us is what is of interest here. All the building blocks required for a cold outbreak are there. The only problem for anyone looking for snow is that it has come a tad bit too early to deliver any significant potential for wintry weather. That said, some wintry showers are possible in parts of Ulster and summits elsewhere in the latter of the weekend. That's how it looks at this point and the outlooks is subject to change.

Hence why you only got 3 thanks! :rolleyes:

Sponge Bob

Sponge Bob wrote: »

.Colder, certainly. Cold, perhaps. Unusual???. Not at all.

Did I really say that?

Su Campu

I think we could see even 18 °C by Wednesday as up to 561 dm thickness establishes over the country. Today's 551 dm yielded a max of 15.9 °C at Valentia and Shannon, and yesterday's 547 yielded 14.9 and 15.6 °C, respectively. I calculate that at this time of the year there is around 1 degree increase in max temperature for every 5 dm increase in thickness, and the fact that soils are drying out all the time and there will be the potential for Föhn warming in the humid southeasterly means that 18 °C should be achievable in prolonged sunshine and the absence of morning fog.

Climatician, what do you think?!

Wolfe_IRE

Su Campu wrote: »

I think we could see even 18 °C by Wednesday as up to 561 dm thickness establishes over the country. Today's 551 dm yielded a max of 15.9 °C at Valentia and Shannon, and yesterday's 547 yielded 14.9 and 15.6 °C, respectively. I calculate that at this time of the year there is around 1 degree increase in max temperature for every 5 dm increase in thickness, and the fact that soils are drying out all the time and there will be the potential for Föhn warming in the humid southeasterly means that 18 °C should be achievable in prolonged sunshine and the absence of morning fog.

Climatician, what do you think?!

Was about to post exactly the same thing, Su. Words out of my mouth...:o

maquiladora

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

It's beautiful....sniff sniff :-P

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

It's beautiful....sniff sniff :-P

The shirt? I think you can get them in Dunnes for a tenner. :P

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

The shirt? I think you can get them in Dunnes for a tenner. :P

Oh there's a person in the picture? - I hadn't noticed, I was hypnotised by the snowy goodness descending on Scotland and Northern Ireland!

srmambo

Someone ought to MS paint or photoshop that snow over Ireland :P

Sponge Bob

maquiladora wrote: »

The shirt? I think you can get them in Dunnes for a tenner. :P

Fecker hid the warm sunshine in the Wesht behind it. I must crack one off to the BBC !

delw

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Fecker hid the warm sunshine in the Wesht behind it. I must crack one off

FYP

Sponge Bob

delw wrote: »

FYP

How exactly are you gonna 'fix' c.13-14c in the Wesht on Friday???

Wolfe_IRE

Looks like tonight's GFS run is taking the plunge of colder air further east more toward eastern Scotland. This would bring it more into line with the ECMWF

maquiladora

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Looks like tonight's GFS run is taking the plunge of colder air further east more toward eastern Scotland. This would bring it more into line with the ECMWF

Out to 120 hours it looks even less impressive than the 12Z GFS, ECM and UKMO. Cold is tilted further to the east of us than it is on the ECM.