Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Sponge Bob

Shades of Feb 2012 all over again

Strangegravy

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Shades of Feb 2012 all over again

BOOOOOOO!!!

Caff Caff

FML

Wolfe_IRE

As is stands that colder airmass is going to pretty much miss all but northern parts of the country as it sinks south on Friday. High pressure to our west/nw is pushing it further east. At least it will be relatively dry with the exception of some showers in the north and northeast.

There could be a further shift in today's runs but I do think that HP system will hold firm

maquiladora

First wintry sounding forecast by Met Eireann this autumn/winter. Take a shot.

Weekend : Indications are for a cold weekend with temperatures well below normal. Frosty conditions can be expected at night, with the prospect of some icy roads. Some rain or showers at times too, a few possibly wintry on northern hills.

Meanwhile, 0Z models arent looking as good for the cold spell.

Wolfe_IRE

bbc
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

Monthly Outlook
An early taste of winter on the cards?

After a very unsettled spell of weather across the whole of the United Kingdom, this coming week looks like being somewhat more settled, although still with some rain and drizzle. Although mild at first, the end of the week looks like turning very much colder as an arctic blast of air plunges south to affect our shores. Chilly and unsettled weather looks like dominating as we head into November.
Monday 22 October—Sunday 28 October
A week of contrasts

This coming week starts off on a rather grey but mild note. Despite high pressure covering the UK, there will be some mainly light rain and drizzle across much of England and Wales, whilst Scotland and Northern Ireland will see some sunshine.

Some brighter conditions may develop across parts of England and Wales later in the week, whilst the northern half of the UK becomes cloudier with some rain. This rain will slip south across all parts by the end of the week, and behind it the weather will turn brighter but very much colder, with some wintry showers possible, especially towards the northern and eastern coasts of Scotland and England. Night time frosts will become a feature, especially in the north, despite a rather stiff north to northeasterly breeze.
Sunday 28 October—Saturday 3 November
Tricky weather for trick-or-treaters

High pressure will influence the weather for many parts of the UK at first, bringing plenty of fine but chilly weather. However, this will slip away to the southwest as we end October, with conditions turning much more unsettled for all parts of the UK. With the winds tending to be predominantly northwesterly, it will stay on the cool side.
Sunday 4 November—Saturday 17 November
Changeable weather, but still on the cool side

Although there are inevitable uncertainties for this period, there is a signal for temperatures to remain below the November average across much of the UK, although Scotland may see near normal temperatures. There will be some rain or showers, with some wintry showers possible for upland parts of Scotland. There will also be some dry, clear spells, which will lead to an overnight frost risk at times across the UK.

munsterlegend

Met Office UK looks pretty wintry and a big change from the current conditions..

UK Outlook for Saturday 27 Oct 2012 to Monday 5 Nov 2012:

A cold spell is likely to become established over the whole of the UK at the start of this period with a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers for most. The showers will be initially most frequent in the north and east, while southern and southwestern parts see the best of the sunshine. It will also be windy in most areas. Some more persistent rain is possible for a time later on in the first weekend, but the relatively cold and unsettled conditions will return thereafter, with sometimes prolonged wintry showers interspersed with drier and brighter periods. Often windy, with gales probable in the north and west at times. Overnight frosts becoming widespread on some nights, with a risk of icy stretches developing where surfaces remain wet.

Updated: 1212 on Mon 22 Oct 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

mcriot29

Any news on the postmans forecast

cherryghost

mcriot29 wrote: »

Any news on the postmans forecast

Yes but you'll have to pay him up front.

Lucreto

mcriot29 wrote: »

Any news on the postmans forecast

Nothing from him yet.

Last year it was issued on the 19th October. It was rumored from a person on this site that Michael was going for a cold winter on the radio. I went back and listened to a good few shows and I didn't find it.

yorlum11

Hello everyone,Its that time of year again.I must admit I'm a snowbie,like to think I'm a realist too.I follow the boards here to learn stuff.

So looking forward to hearing how you all see it and hope to get involved myself.

Iancar29

Met Office thoughts on things for this weekend.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7MsExj2Z3o

rickdangerouss

Been following Matt's twitter account for a while, came across this. For myself , he explains his posts very well.

November is trending towards an normal temp month, Matt points out that this could run into December too.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74587-stratosphere-temperature-watch-20122013/page__st__260__gopid__2387604#entry2387604

Also saw this link too.

http://www.equities.com/news/news-headline-story?dt=2012-10-22&val=617757&d=1&cat=headline

Do not know if this link is a good one, however, they are going for a normal to mild temp winter.

Wolfe_IRE

To add to what Rick said...

WSI, which owns the Weather Channel, posted an update to their winter forecast today. Their forecast regions sees Ireland and Britain lumped in under UK (for forecasting purposes only before someone pipes up!).
http://www.wsi.com/1f03332a-cf71-4436-9eec-207fb54d01ca/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (November-January) to average slightly higher than normal across most regions, with the exception of parts of far southeastern Europe.

“As we head into November, it appears we may have a stretch of rather cold weather across much of Europe early in the month. We have reduced our forecast temperatures for November in many locations based on these trends, as well as climate model forecasts. Looking ahead further, the climate models and statistical predictors are suggestive of another winter with limited North Atlantic blocking,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist. “This would result in relatively mild and wet conditions across the UK and Scandinavia, with a cooler and drier winter across southern Europe. Climate models are suggesting that January and February may be particularly warm and wet across western/northern Europe.”

In November, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal
UK* – Cooler than normal
Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal, except France/Benelux
Southern Mainland* – Warmer than normal

In December, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme eastern sections
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme eastern sections

In January, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme eastern sections
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme eastern sections

Su Campu

Here is a comparison of the sea surface temperature anomalies for this time of the year over the past four years.

The closest match to this year Atlantic-wise is 2010, with a large warm anomaly in the NW and near normal or slightly cold northeast and Norwegian Sea, in line with the positive AMO of the recent decade. In the Pacific, the difference is the near neutral ENSO this year, more in line with 2009, and opposite to the La Niña of 2010 and 2011.

What it all means? We'll see!

2012


2011


2010


2009

Deep Easterly

Su Campu wrote: »

The closest match to this year Atlantic-wise is 2010

What it all means? We'll see!

Synoptic pattern not too dissimilar this time in 2010 either.

Lucreto

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

To add to what Rick said...

WSI, which owns the Weather Channel, posted an update to their winter forecast today. Their forecast regions sees Ireland and Britain lumped in under UK (for forecasting purposes only before someone pipes up!).
http://www.wsi.com/1f03332a-cf71-4436-9eec-207fb54d01ca/news-scheduled-forecast-release-details.htm

WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (November-January) to average slightly higher than normal across most regions, with the exception of parts of far southeastern Europe.

“As we head into November, it appears we may have a stretch of rather cold weather across much of Europe early in the month. We have reduced our forecast temperatures for November in many locations based on these trends, as well as climate model forecasts. Looking ahead further, the climate models and statistical predictors are suggestive of another winter with limited North Atlantic blocking,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist. “This would result in relatively mild and wet conditions across the UK and Scandinavia, with a cooler and drier winter across southern Europe. Climate models are suggesting that January and February may be particularly warm and wet across western/northern Europe.”

In November, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal
UK* – Cooler than normal
Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal, except France/Benelux
Southern Mainland* – Warmer than normal

In December, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme eastern sections
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme eastern sections

In January, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme eastern sections
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except extreme eastern sections

In other words Mother Nature is trolling us snow lovers. Get out hopes up with a cooler weather and bam another warm winter.

Sponge Bob will be happy.

srmambo

Let's just pray and hope that the above forecast for warm weather is wrong.

If the above does turn out to be true, or at least looks quite likely to be true at least we have this cold spell to keep us happy :P

Pangea

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (November-January) to average slightly higher than normal across most regions

Sponge Bob

Lucreto wrote: »

I Get out hopes up with a cooler weather and bam another warm winter.

Sponge Bob will be happy.

Only if my colder than average October forecast comes to pass.

Calibos

I am hoping for one or the other, I just hope its not something in between.

ie. We have something akin to the two episodes at the beginning and end of 2010 which will make the kid in me a happy camper or we have something akin to last year which will make the heating bill paying adult in me a happy camper

I just don't want it to be cold enough for the heating to be on all the time but too warm for episodes of the white-stuff. I can be consoled when I open a large heating bill with memories of the white-stuff but not by memories of grey wet miserable dankness.

Unfortunately the white stuff or the Low Winter heating bills are the exceptions and its grey wet miserable and expensive heating bills which are the norm here.

Wolfe_IRE

Tonight's GFS has the colder airmass more or less missing Ireland. There will be a 6-7c drop in daytime temps from Thursday into Friday but it is certainly not looking any way as cold as previous runs. During the first week of November our friend (:mad:) the jetstream digs in bringing much milder but unsettled weather.

Lucreto

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Tonight's GFS has the colder airmass more or less missing Ireland. There will be a 6-7c drop in daytime temps from Thursday into Friday but it is certainly not looking any way as cold as previous runs. During the first week of November our friend (:mad:) the jetstream digs in bringing much milder but unsettled weather.

February all over again.:mad:

I hope Mr. Jet doesn't wear out its welcome.

Sponge Bob

Ah sure he might blow in an extratropical or two.

NIALL D

icesnowfrost wrote: »

in 08 we got loads of snow in drogheda and it lasted for about 3 days....it started snowing in the evening and with in a few hrs we had about 5 inches :cool:

eeqq

gbee

srmambo wrote: »

Let's just pray .... we have this cold spell to keep us happy :P

Khione, Goddess of Snow. Sits in the heavens and sprinkles the flakes over the Earth. She worked very hard to deliver snow to Cork during 2010, I think she took a holiday last year but anyway, worth including.

deelite

Is there really a possibility of snow for this Friday. I was watching Daybreak (ITV 1 ) and the weather person said there's a very cold snap scheduled for this weekend with a possibility of snow. What do you think?

Speak Now

deelite wrote: »

Is there really a possibility of snow for this Friday. I was watching Daybreak (ITV 1 ) and the weather person said there's a very cold snap scheduled for this weekend with a possibility of snow. What do you think?

Scottish mountains

maquiladora

deelite wrote: »

Is there really a possibility of snow for this Friday. I was watching Daybreak (ITV 1 ) and the weather person said there's a very cold snap scheduled for this weekend with a possibility of snow. What do you think?

There is a cold spell on the way, yes. Met Eireann:

Friday night will be cold with a widespread frost likely as the wind eases and temperatures fall to between zero and minus 3 degrees.

Any snow would probably be restricted to high ground in the north/northeast UK. Met Office:

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Remaining rather cloudy but mild across the south Thursday, but turning colder, brighter and breezy from the north by Friday with overnight frosts and wintry showers particularly near eastern coasts.

Updated: 0302 on Tue 23 Oct 2012

Sappa

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Tonight's GFS has the colder airmass more or less missing Ireland. There will be a 6-7c drop in daytime temps from Thursday into Friday but it is certainly not looking any way as cold as previous runs. During the first week of November our friend (:mad:) the jetstream digs in bringing much milder but unsettled weather.

Good news,
We miss the cold at least and mild weather is what we want.