Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Wolfe_IRE

So.....The Donegal Postman Michael Gallagher is predicting a cold winter and 'plenty' of snow before Christmas.

Michael told The Daily Newspaper (image) he 'has no time' for modern forecasting techniques and instead, bases his forecasts on nature observations.

maquiladora

Ok, time to bail out of this thread for a few days. :P

up for anything

gbee wrote: »

Khione, Goddess of Snow. Sits in the heavens and sprinkles the flakes over the Earth. She worked very hard to deliver snow to Cork during 2010, I think she took a holiday last year but anyway, worth including.

My cousin named her daughter Chione.

touts

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

So.....The Donegal Postman Michael Gallagher is predicting a cold winter and 'plenty' of snow before Christmas.

Michael told The Daily Newspaper (image) he 'has no time' for modern forecasting techniques and instead, bases his forecasts on nature observations.

The subjective assessment of how loud the birds are is better than satellite imagery etc. :rolleyes:

What happens when he starts to go deaf through old age. Mild Winters?

touts

up for anything wrote: »

My cousin named her daughter Chione.

Must have been a long hard labour

Sponge Bob

No beating around the bush in Donegal. BTW I am looking at a blackbird engorging himself on berries in Galway...as I type.

http://www.donegaldaily.com/2012/10/23/donegals-famous-weatherman-predicts-snow-before-christmas/

October 23 2012.


Donegal’s famous amateur weatherman has predicted the county is

set to shiver from a series of cold snaps this winter.


Postman Michael Gallagher has said he is “99% sure” the country will suffer heavy falls of snow – before Christmas.

Godge

Reading the article, the sentence that struck me the most was:

"I don't think it will be as tough as a couple of years ago...."

So while he is predicting a cold winter with snow, given what people have become used to in terms of snow and coldness, that sentence may come as disappointment/relief depending on your point of view (oh and also depending on whether you give his forecast any credence).

A headline saying "Postman doesn't think winter will be as tough as recent ones" doesn't have the same oomph but is probably closer to what he is saying.

Strangegravy

maquiladora wrote: »

Ok, time to bail out of this thread for a few days. :P

Ha, ha... Yeah, it could get a bit crazy in here after that prediction!!

mcriot29

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

So.....The Donegal Postman Michael Gallagher is predicting a cold winter and 'plenty' of snow before Christmas.

Michael told The Daily Newspaper (image) he 'has no time' for modern forecasting techniques and instead, bases his forecasts on nature observations.

Is he talking about all of ire or just his area

Strangegravy

“The abundance of berries is a sure sign that temperatures are going to plunge in the winter. We’re in for a cold one. And I’m 99% sure we’ll have plenty of snow,”

Well not in Limerick anyway. The amount of berries around here last year should of, in his eyes, led to a "The Day after Tomorrow" scenario. This obviously didn't happen.

This year has been very poor berry wise down here, but again I don't think this will have any impact on whether it will snow here or not.

Nature is just reacting to the poor summer we had here, I can't speak for the Postman's locality.

Now the crows, well, they are another subject altogether, them feckers know something I tells ya...

Sponge Bob

Strangegravy wrote: »

Now the crows, well, they are another subject altogether, them feckers know something I tells ya...

I'm glad the crows finally got a mention in this thread.

Wolfe_IRE

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I'm glad the crows finally got a mention in this thread.

It's taken some time but it has been worth the wait :pac:

Sponge Bob

Just on the subject of Blackbirds before we get into our old frinds the crows. Dated: 13 November 2009 somewhere in Cheadle in Cheshire, England.

http://www.rspb.org.uk/advice/expert/previous/blackbirdsfrom.aspx

Q

Today we have had a flock of blackbirds feeding in the garden on the hawthorn berries. Where will they have come from? Normally we have just the odd pair.

A

The blackbirds feeding on the hawthorn berries in your garden, may have come from Sweden, Norway or Iceland for example. They will be very relieved, as will the resident birds, that there seems to be a bumper crop of berries this year

I only have the one about, mind, and he looks rather well fed to say the least. Ye all know that a female blackbird is not black, right??

kstand

Who was giving the crow reports last year? I dont think it amounted to very much and one or two of the more scientific posters asked for the reports to be terminated, which they were.

Deep Easterly

I think it might be interesting to monitor temps in this upcoming cold snap to put them in a historical context. Will gather up some daily data from the ECA&Dfor Valentia, Malin & Phoenix Pk forthe period 26th-31st Oct. and use this data to compare the upcoming temps for the same period.

Just going by Malin Head for the time being, the coldest mean temp for the 26-31st period occurred as recently as 2008, while the warmest was in 2005. (data since 1955). The coldest late October max temp on record at the station was 5.6c on the 29th Oct 2008, whilst the warmest was 19.0c on the 27th in 2005. Will be interesting to see if the cool record will be broken this year for the period.

catch.23

Lucreto wrote: »

February all over again.:mad:

I hope Mr. Jet doesn't wear out its welcome.

The difference is in February we had a decent shot at a very cold snap and snow, whereas now we had a decent shot at cold rain and maybe sleet, but not lying snow. So it can't really be seen as a disappointment!

Speak Now

Sneachtaober....no thanks.

leahyl

Is it actually going to be as cold as we thought this weekend after all? Was watching the weather after the news last night and Jean Byrne said that arctic air would come down over us on Friday but that then Saturday and Sunday would be milder again. Not as cold as first thought?

Wolfe_IRE

leahyl wrote: »

Is it actually going to be as cold as we thought this weekend after all? Was watching the weather after the news last night and Jean Byrne said that arctic air would come down over us on Friday but that then Saturday and Sunday would be milder again. Not as cold as first thought?

no leahyl. The GFS and ECM have been progressively steering the cold plunge toward Scandinavia since Sunday. Both are now suggesting that the weather will remain cool though up to and including the first few days of Nov.

Sponge Bob

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

The GFS and ECM have been progressively steering the cold plunge toward Scandinavia since Sunday.

Fair to say the situation, starting on Friday, certainly looked like being colder when viewed 5 days out on Sunday which is the day that weekly forecasts are presented, traditionally.

However no sooner had these forecasts been delivered (RTE and BBC) of a sunday lunchtime than the extent of the forecasted cold plunge started to get pushed progressively east and a tad north too in subsequent model runs.

Wolfe_IRE

Yep, Bob. As Su rightly pointed out last week, the GFS is prone to over-exaggerating/estimating cold spells. The ECM was pretty much on the ball from day one regarding the weekend's weather. 1-0 to ECM this winter (unless things go belly up in the next 24-48 hours).

By the way, I am seeing similarities between Oct 2010 and this month. Back then, I remember there being a significant pool of very cool air trying to sink south throughout the month and into early November. We were more or less stuck in a W-NW flow with the standard cool weather interspersed with brief interludes of colder air spilling down from the NW or N. Eventually, one of these did manage to hold firm in the last week of Nov, aided by high pressure plugging the Atlantic feed.

Considering that the AO is due to stay in negative territory for the next 10 days or so, we should keep an eye out on what's happening to our west and north. This is a big if but IF we see a connection between a HP system out west and one over Greenland, we could see a more significant spell of cold weather in the next fortnight. The ECM does show some potential for this by the end of the current run. One to watch perhaps.

Sponge Bob

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

This is a big if but IF we see a connection between a HP system out west and one over Greenland, we could see a more significant spell of cold weather in the next fortnight.

I am acutely aware of that as are pelenty of others around here!!!

The business end of the Annual Competition in this forum will be the next 6 weeks after all and they are literally all out to get Sponge Bob.

Wolfe_IRE

Sponge Bob wrote: »

The business end of the Annual Competition in this forum will be the next 6 weeks after all and they are literally all out to get Sponge Bob.

You were lucky last year though Bob. Very lucky. :pac:

ME



UK Met Office update from today

UK Outlook for Sunday 28 Oct 2012 to Tuesday 6 Nov 2012:

After a mainly dry, chilly start in the south, cloud and rain will spread from the north to most areas during Sunday, with hill snow probable for a time. After this clears, the UK will settle into a regime of mostly rather cold and unsettled weather, with a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers interspersed with periods of more persistent rain, sleet and hill snow, the hill snow mainly in the north. It will often be windy, with gales probable in the north and west at times. Although occasional spells of near-normal temperatures are likely, on the whole it will be rather cold. Overnight frosts are likely to be widespread on some nights, even in the south, with a risk of icy stretches developing where surfaces remain wet.

Updated: 1126 on Tue 23 Oct 2012

icesnowfrost

bloody jet stream can **** off for 4 months....:mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:

Sappa

What are the temperatures looking like for the west of Ireland from Friday onwards,I have a couple of guests visiting and would like to do done outdoor activities.
They keep saying -2 for Galway Fruday/Sat is this on the cards.

icesnowfrost

well im still confident we will have a cold winter this year and have good snowfall (in northeast and north)

maquiladora

I see postman pat has a dedicated thread now.

Anyway, here is the predicted NAO from the 06Z GFS. Negative all the way.

Wolfe_IRE

Sappa wrote: »

What are the temperatures looking like for the west of Ireland from Friday onwards,I have a couple of guests visiting and would like to do done outdoor activities.
They keep saying -2 for Galway Fruday/Sat is this on the cards.

away from the coast, temps will dip below freezing on Friday night Sappa

Speak Now

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Getting rather frustrated following these models. They keep picking me up and throwing me down. Arrrrgh! :mad:

It's only October , you haven't even handed over your ticket for the rollercoaster yet!

delw

maquiladora wrote: »

I see postman pat has a dedicated thread now.

Better there than in here Maq