Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

maquiladora

141_Oscar_Mike wrote: »

Getting rather frustrated following these models. They keep picking me up and throwing me down. Arrrrgh! :mad:

Sure it wouldn't be much fun if they were right all the time. It's the chopping and changing, the surprises (good & bad) that makes it interesting.

Sponge Bob

icesnowfrost wrote: »

bloody jet stream can **** off for 4 months....:mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:

Up north would be nice.

Harps

Overhead would be even nicer, I'd take a storm any day over a 'cold' spell at this time of year, they've been nearly non existent so far this Autumn

icesnowfrost

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Up north would be nice.

correct me if im wrong but for the weather to bring loads of cold and the white stuff do we not need the jet stream to be a bit more north-west

Iancar29

icesnowfrost wrote: »

correct me if im wrong but for the weather to bring loads of cold and the white stuff do we not need the jet stream to be a bit more north-west

You DO know your talking to SPONGE BOB right?????? The snow grinch.. :rolleyes: :pac:

icesnowfrost

Iancar29 wrote: »

You DO know your talking to SPONGE BOB right?????? The snow grinch.. :rolleyes: :pac:

lol ok its just im new to this....:eek:

cherryghost

Iancar29 wrote: »

You DO know your talking to SPONGE BOB right?????? The snow grinch.. :rolleyes: :pac:

More like the realistic grinch!

Iancar29

power is gone on the whole road! .... THIS MUST BE A SIGN OF A EPIC COLD SNAP PRECISELY on the 13 of December at 3.51pm! ! ! :P

Sponge Bob

Iancar29 wrote: »

power is gone on the whole road! .... THIS MUST BE A SIGN OF A EPIC COLD SNAP PRECISELY on the 13 of December at 3.51pm! ! ! :P

PM me your addy so I can send you a box of ugly toads and luridly bright tropical frogs for my anaphasic large array crowdsource predictimatator experiment. Everyone deserves to be a postie now.

To the tune of Yellow Submarine.

All we need is
A pair of yellow frogs
Three sleeping dogs
And the earwigs eating logs!

IrishGurll

Love seeing a bit of purple on the met charts http://www.met.ie/forecasts/5day-ireland.asp

Wolfe_IRE

Apologies for the randomness of this post, but i thought it was interesting in the context of what are reasonable expectations in terms of cold/snowy weather when reading MT's forecast this winter.

Below is his forecast for 19 November 2010, approximately 6-7 days before the first snows fell in the winter of 2010-11. The signs were pretty much there even on the 19th that a very cold spell was likely.

In advance of MT's forecast, I just want to show the ECM output for the 19th. The ECM was showing the following setup for the 27th. The second chart is the actual pressure chart for the day. Ultimately, the trend was well established a 8 days in advance, even though the outcome was somewhat even more colder than what was signalled. My point....If a severe and/or prolonged cold period is going to occur this winter, it is likely that we will know 5-7 days in advance.




(19th) TODAY ... While the east and north may enjoy some sunshine for a while, cloud and scattered showers will invade the west and south. Amounts will be around 5-10 mms.

Highs today should reach 10 C and winds are likely to be less of an issue for most, south 10-20 mph although backing more to the southeast as the rain moves in. Some fog will develop on higher ground during this rainfall.

TONIGHT ... periods of rain for most, although parts of Ulster could remain dry, and winds SE 10-20 mph, lows 4-7 C, and rainfalls of 10-15 mms.

SATURDAY ... cloudy with rain becoming rather heavy at times especially for the south, central and western counties, where 15-25 mms possible ... winds SE backing to E, 15-25 mph, raw and chilly as a result ... highs 8-10 C.

SUNDAY ... overnight early morning showers clearing for most, with a slight frost developing well inland, then variable cloud, a few wintry mixed showers possible over higher ground, winds E-NE 15-30 mph, lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

(22nd) MONDAY ... continuing cold and breezy, NE 15-30 mph, mixed wintry showers possibly heavy near the east coast and snow quite likely over high ground, with lows near -2 C and highs near 6 C.

(23-24) TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... somewhat less breezy as winds turn more northerly, and higher pressure develops ... sharp frosts with lows to -4 C and highs only reaching 4-6 C, some chance of freezing fog lingering in central valleys.

(25-28)THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... an even colder period is possible, with considerable model agreement already on a wintry northeast flow redeveloping and snow or sleet spreading across many parts of Ireland and the U.K., temperatures well below normal and possibly staying below 2 C all day, and also possibly some snow accumulating and causing travel disruptions. All this is not quite "carved in stone" yet but certainly seems like the most probable outcome as much higher pressure forms well to the north and strong low pressure drifts west from around Poland to around the North Sea and then across England.

icesnowfrost

JUST CAME ACROSS THIS...................................................................................................................................... Wednesday, Oct 24 2012 12AM



Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-151000/Snow-way-cold-snap-continues.html#ixzz2AAVYxaFi
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Sponge Bob

What, did you come across a Daily Mail 'journalist' name or was it interesting in some way???? Why are you posting Daily Mail twittter details on Boards???

Wolfe_IRE

icesnowfrost wrote: »

JUST CAME ACROSS THIS...................................................................................................................................... Wednesday, Oct 24 2012 12AM



Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-151000/Snow-way-cold-snap-continues.html#ixzz2AAVYxaFi
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

That's a story from last winter

Sponge Bob

Didn't even click on it Wofle..was it true???

Lucreto

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Didn't even click on it Wofle..was it true???

Dailymail don't date their articles. I fell into that trap last year.

Sponge Bob

I just clicked on the rag " cold spell continues" it said.

leahyl

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Apologies for the randomness of this post, but i thought it was interesting in the context of what are reasonable expectations in terms of cold/snowy weather when reading MT's forecast this winter.

Below is his forecast for 19 November 2010, approximately 6-7 days before the first snows fell in the winter of 2010-11. The signs were pretty much there even on the 19th that a very cold spell was likely.

In advance of MT's forecast, I just want to show the ECM output for the 19th. The ECM was showing the following setup for the 27th. The second chart is the actual pressure chart for the day. Ultimately, the trend was well established a 8 days in advance, even though the outcome was somewhat even more colder than what was signalled. My point....If a severe and/or prolonged cold period is going to occur this winter, it is likely that we will know 5-7 days in advance.


(25-28)THURSDAY to SUNDAY ... an even colder period is possible, with considerable model agreement already on a wintry northeast flow redeveloping and snow or sleet spreading across many parts of Ireland and the U.K., temperatures well below normal and possibly staying below 2 C all day, and also possibly some snow accumulating and causing travel disruptions. All this is not quite "carved in stone" yet but certainly seems like the most probable outcome as much higher pressure forms well to the north and strong low pressure drifts west from around Poland to around the North Sea and then across England.

This is great Wolfe_IRE - it's getting me even more excited now and confident that we will have a really snowy winter (more importantly Christmas!):pac:

Wolfe_IRE

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Didn't even click on it Wofle..was it true???

It's an old article alright. The Daily Mail does this (removes date and gets story url indexed on google again) during the winter to drive traffic to their website.

They know that 'winter forecast' 'snow uk' etc. are huge traffic generators so they capitalise on that.

icesnowfrost

Sponge Bob wrote: »

What, did you come across a Daily Mail 'journalist' name or was it interesting in some way???? Why are you posting Daily Mail twittter details on Boards???

Relax that was about a 6 on the tension scale sponge bob

i thought it was for this year. i was posting what i thought was a forecast for this week and next week......are we not permitted to put up a story from the paper about weather?

Sponge Bob

You put up a link not a story. This is a discussion forum not a link aggregator.

SnowDrifts

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

Apologies for the randomness of this post, but i thought it was interesting in the context of what are reasonable expectations in terms of cold/snowy weather when reading MT's forecast this winter.

Below is his forecast for 19 November 2010, approximately 6-7 days before the first snows fell in the winter of 2010-11. The signs were pretty much there even on the 19th that a very cold spell was likely.

Seems Darkman2 called the cold spell on the 15th. Have to say, I tend not to give much weight to forecasts beyond 2 weeks.

icesnowfrost

Sponge Bob wrote: »

You put up a link not a story. This is a discussion forum not a link aggregator.

but its a link to a headline about weather and for people to talk about it...and how many people have put up links in the last few pages ? so what have i done wrong

Sponge Bob

6Z GEFS toying with a return of the Atlantic in early November. The cold plunge developing this weekend not showing digging in. Could all change one run later as we all know. The TS Sandy Remnant / Perfect storm is not shown anywhere near us at any rate.

TURRICAN

Howdy everybody.
Here's a taste of what's to come this winter...

up for anything

Is this weather chap, Jim Dale from British Weather Services, kosher? I can't afford a week of cold weather let alone two bloody months. I might as well die now. :(

IRELAND TO REACH -20°C THIS WINTER WITH 2 MONTHS OF SNOW

Ireland will shiver through a colder-than-normal winter with “significant” snow and bone-chilling -12°C TO -20°C temperatures, forecasters warned last night.

They also said there would be increased transport disruption this winter and a higher chance of a white Christmas in 2012.

Met Eireann does not issue long-range forecasts and Britain’s Met Office has scrapped its seasonal outlooks after blunders.

But British Weather Services, which issues Irish weather forecasts for Irish insurers, transport firms and bookmakers Paddy Power, expects a bitter December and January.

A white Christmas — like those in 2009 and 2010 — has a better chance than usual this year due to blocking high pressure cutting off milder Atlantic air, said the BWS.

Weathermen dashed hopes of a repeat of last year’s mild winter, which saw a balmy 14°C Christmas Day.

BWS senior meteorologist Jim Dale said: “We’re forecasting a colder than average period from mid-November to late January for Ireland, with significant snow at times.

“It won’t be surprising to see minimum temperatures fall to -10°C to -12°C and there will be disruption.

“Road users will need to be very aware of snow hazards.”

Dale added: “There’s a better than average chance of a white Christmas in Ireland this year as the coldest part will be early rather than late in winter, with February expected to see milder Atlantic-influenced conditions.”

]

Su Campu

up for anything wrote: »

Is this weather chap, Jim Dale from British Weather Services, kosher? I can't afford a week of cold weather let alone two bloody months. I might as well die now. :(

BWS seem kosher, it's this insurance crowd who are misquoting them and making stuff up as they go along. BWS never said anything of the sort, and the -20 has been taken from thin air it seems.

But people will still believe it, cos they want to.

up for anything

Su Campu wrote: »

BWS seem kosher, it's this insurance crowd who are misquoting them and making stuff up as they go along. BWS never said anything of the sort, and the -20 has been taken from thin air it seems.

But people will still believe it, cos they want to.

Thank heavens. I won't believe it even when I can't open my front door for snow drifts.

mike65

People would save themselves a lot of bother if they ignored every link proporting to be a long range forecast. Not much good for this thread maybe but that's hardly important.

Aiel

I will personally eat my laptop if we have temps even close to -20 this winter.I prefer a good old Atlantic storm then a snow event.Any sign of any of the current Tropical depressions heading this way after they visit the Carribean??