Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

kstand

Sensationalism appearing in papers and nothing more - cannot be qualified as journalism. It might get down to -20 at the top of the Cairngorms or somewhere like that for an hour one night and straight away, some idiot of a hack is predicting Siberian weather for places like Cork on the back of it. Anyone who would write such wanton drivel should be removed from their job and given some employment more fitting, such as sellings socks.

maquiladora

up for anything wrote: »

Is this weather chap, Jim Dale from British Weather Services, kosher? I can't afford a week of cold weather let alone two bloody months. I might as well die now. :(

Jim turned a boyhood hobby into a career when he qualified and served as a meteorologist in the Fleet Air Arm of the British Royal Navy during the early to mid 1980′s. Following a spell working for a marine meteorologist company in London, Jim formed British Weather Services in June 1987....

He is kosher. The thing is, its only a forecast, and nobody knows all the answers. You'd be better off off just ignoring all long range forecasts and just seeing what pops up on the models in the medium term. Even that can fall apart at less than 150 hours so no need to look months ahead.

Speak Now

Papers will only print the extreme, if you forecast average summer or average winter you dont make it into print. Give a snowy winter or a sizzling summer and you have free advertising from them :rolleyes:. The average Joe soap doesnt remember after the season has passed.

They're giving a great summer....who is?
Dunno heard it on the radio.

After Summer
They got it wrong...who did?
The weathermen :rolleyes:

Blizzard 2010

Paddy Power has narrowed the odds on a White Christmas from 6-1 to 4-1

Iancar29

Abisko Mountain Lodge , where i went to back in January in Northern Sweden with some nice wind chills of -30 o C ... at times has just posted this on FB...

" FINALLY ! "

NIALL D

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Paddy Power has narrowed the odds on a White Christmas from 6-1 to 4-1

might bang 100 on that for the crack


-20 and 2 months of snow , sweet !! :cool::pac:

Pangea

DWC post this tonight
"What if i were to say a massive storm was on the way with temperatures down below -10C with some white stuff ???"

They wont last long if they continue to post things like that to every one.

maquiladora

Pangea wrote: »

DWC post this tonight
"What if i were to say a massive storm was on the way with temperatures down below -10C with some white stuff ???"

They wont last long if they continue to post things like that to every one.

DWC?

Wolfe_IRE

I put together a gallery of pics from Nov/Dec 2010 and posted on The Meteo Times/IWO Facebook page today.

https://www.facebook.com/meteotimesIRL

or here

It's the most recent post. MT, Deepeasterly, Su Campu, Iancar and I look after the page so I hope the mods don't mind me posting here.

yorlum11

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

I put together a gallery of pics from Nov/Dec 2010 and posted on The Meteo Times/IWO Facebook page today.

https://www.facebook.com/meteotimesIRL

or here

It's the most recent post. MT, Deepeasterly, Su Campu, Iancar and I look after the page so I hope the mods don't mind me posting here.

Seen them earlier Wolf thanks for posting.Excellent array of winter weather pics!

Harps

Pangea wrote: »

DWC post this tonight
"What if i were to say a massive storm was on the way with temperatures down below -10C with some white stuff ???"

They wont last long if they continue to post things like that to every one.

No idea where he got that from

This is the chart he posted, 6-10C with a gusty westerly breeze is all I see from that..

Harps

I see Su is on his case already

maquiladora

Maybe in Iceland but now in Ireland anyway.

Sponge Bob

Second outbreak of snow porn of the winter and both from Donegal. DWC regged on boards one night and appeared here a month back acting like a complete plank. Unsurprisingly ........

Redsunset

And were site banned because of it.
Next?

srmambo

Weathergossip has now changed its forecast in favour of cold conditions and some good news for cold on the lead up to Christmas.

http://weathergossip.blogspot.ie/

Rainfall 115%
Sunshine 100%
Lowest Temperature -5c
Highest Temperature 13c
Snow Days 1-2
Frost Days 4-6
Average Temperature 6.5c

maquiladora

NAE showing uppers down to -9 over Ulster at 30 hours. Thats some cold air for October!

Iancar29

maquiladora wrote: »

NAE showing uppers down to -9 over Ulster at 30 hours. Thats some cold air for October!

:pac:

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

NAE showing uppers down to -9 over Ulster at 30 hours. Thats some cold air for October!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MdOQJAryIsc

Just having a gawk through Phoenix Park max temps since the year 1888 and it seems that the coolest late October-early Nov period recorded at this station occurred in 1896. The average daily max for the 11 day period 26th Oct-5th Nov 1896 was just 8.2c (around 3.8c below normal) with a few of the days recording lower values. Unsurprisingly, the wider synoptic set up was dominated by strong Greenland ridge that kept any milder weather well to our south.



Other chilly late Oct/early Nov periods (mean max 26th-5th)
1896 8.2
1919 8.4
1942 8.7
2008 8.8
1922 8.9
1895 9.0
1966 9.2
1967 9.3

In contrast, here are the warmest late Oct/Nov periods (mean max for period 26th-5th) Really shows what a temperamental time of year it can be.
2005 15.9
1927 15.7
1978 15.3
1943 15.0
1995 14.3
1996 14.2
1971 14.2
1970 14.2
1972 14.2

mickger844posts

maquiladora wrote: »

NAE showing uppers down to -9 over Ulster at 30 hours. Thats some cold air for October!

-7 uppers for the vast majority by 6pm tomorrow according to the NAE. That's a hell of a drop from where we're at now which is 12c in the South East.

leahyl

Have things taken a drastic turn so?! For the better?!

Iancar29

leahyl wrote: »

Have things taken a drastic turn so?! For the better?!

For Cold and hard frost , its improved yes, but for snow , theres still not much change because of the lack of precipitation about...

still though , would be nice to see a sprinkling on the mountains come Saturday morning!



Met Éireann also have similar thoughts

Tomorrow

Friday will be a cold and bright day with some sunshine. It will stay dry in most areas, though there will be a few showers in the north and east, and some could turn wintry on high ground later in the day. Highest temperatures ranging from only 5 or 6 in the north to 9 or 10 degrees in the south with moderate to fresh northeast winds.

leahyl

Iancar29 wrote: »

For Cold and hard frost , its improved yes, but for snow , theres still not much change because of the lack of precipitation about...

still though , would be nice to see a sprinkling on the mountains come Saturday morning!



Met Éireann also have similar thoughts

Tomorrow

Friday will be a cold and bright day with some sunshine. It will stay dry in most areas, though there will be a few showers in the north and east, and some could turn wintry on high ground later in the day. Highest temperatures ranging from only 5 or 6 in the north to 9 or 10 degrees in the south with moderate to fresh northeast winds.

Meh 9 or 10 degrees in the south - that's not cold!

Deep Easterly

leahyl wrote: »

Meh 9 or 10 degrees in the south - that's not cold!

It sort of is - for October!

Iancar29

leahyl wrote: »

Meh 9 or 10 degrees in the south - that's not cold!

Then get ups for a nice early morning Saturday walks then !

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

Meh 9 or 10 degrees in the south - that's not cold!

Hard to please Leahyl! at least the weather will be more interesting than the past week.

Wolfe_IRE

My take on the coming days

The transition from the present mild, overcast period of weather will be replaced by a 24-hour reminder of the season we are about to face into - winter. Friday (Oct 26) will see a colder airmass sink south over Ireland. Friday night though Saturday morning will see temperatures dip as low as -3 or -4c, while some scattered, mostly light, wintry showers will occur on high ground in north and east Ulster and East Leinster on Friday afternoon. It will be largely dry and bright elsewhere. The season's first dusting of snow may also occur on the highest summits in these regions. However, the threat of wintry showers occurring at lower levels here is very low.



It will turn milder on Saturday and Sunday before temperatures dip to below average for the time of year again on Sunday night through Monday. The outlook is for cooler, often windy and unsettled weather to persist into the first week of November.

Iancar29

Considering the low temps are the certainty for this brief cold spell , all i need to do now is to make a snow machine! .... then it wont be long before....

mcriot29

Dont see what all the hype is about its a 2 day event , also no signs of any strat warming and signs dont look great if u notice with this mini freeze it has ireland on very edge just like last year, i notice long range models show same thing ireland just mIssing out on the cold

pauldry

Certainly in the West and North the first week of November will see some heavy white stuff whitening the ground at lower levels. But it will prob be hailstones or graupel and will melt soon after.

Certainly there will be a few blasts this Winter that will give the s word every chance. Not the same sort of regime that dominated last Winter but lets not get hugely ahead of ourselves as the Atlantic could get mad yet and push the jetstream north and plant a High over Europe bring meh, cloud and 11c.

Storms are beter than that. Last Winter was all grey grey grey mild mild mild.