Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

kstand

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

ECM 32 day looks very blocked maybe a repeat of November 2010 is on the cards.:eek:

Out of interest, what would one expect to pay for 32 day info?

Duggys Housemate

Reading the Signal and the Noise recently he pointed out that past 10 days forecasts are worse predictors than the average for that time of year.

Keith96

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

ECM 32 day looks very blocked maybe a repeat of November 2010 is on the cards.:eek:

Yes please!!!! :D:D

lucernarian

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

I have access only.Copyright issues ect sorry

Yeah:D but seriously, how much would that access cost? Who would I enquire with? Any websites which provide this for a particular cost?

Pangea

First snow of the winter on the hills here, lets hope its a sign of things to come.

Musicman2000

Pangea wrote: »

First snow of the winter on the hills here, lets hope its a sign of things to come.

Good to hear, just looking at the GFS 12z run, I know its on FI but the azores hight is right back over us and the polar vortex over Greenland, perfect timing , and no sign of it all summer:mad:

icesnowfrost

bitter cold in kerry today....as i am there for a day.....a good hail shower this afternoon

Iancar29

A bit of Graupel possibly?... ah sure why not like..

Pangea

Heard it was snowing in Kilcar today.

icesnowfrost

just seen this on met Eierann's outlook



Outlook for the rest of the week and up to the middle of next week:

October has been quite a cool month with mean temperatures one to two degrees below average. The first week in November will be very cold with a Polar air mass over Ireland producing mean temperatures 3 to 5 degrees below average. Daytime values less than 10 degrees and as low as 5 degrees in places and both air and ground frosts at night. As is normal for a Polar air mass there will be periods of dazzling sunshine and excellent visibility but it will turn very showery at times also with some heavy downpours likely and also some hail and sleet mixed in with a risk of some thunderstorm activity also. Very wet overall in the southwest, west and northwest with rainfall well in excess of average with typically about 50 to 70mm likely and over 100mm possible over the mountains in the northwest. Over the bulk of the country however there will be good sunny intervals and rainfall amounts below average at between 10 and 30mm for the next week.

There is a possibility of somewhat less cold weather on Tuesday and Wednesday as milder southwesterlies feed up over Ireland bringing temperatures back into the low teens but also bringing bands of rain.

Summary: Friday to Sunday will be windy and very cold. Sunny in the east and south, heavy wintry showers elsewhere. Night frosts.:cool:

Su Campu

The GFS is hinting at sub 524 air on Friday night/Saturday morning, with clear skies for much of the country. Any showers that come in off the Atlantic could turn increasingly wintry as they push inland, though they would be dying out all the time.

Wolfe_IRE

www.met.ie

FINNER DONEGAL(A) W 08 LIGHT SLEET 4 95 2.5 976
11Pm

Wolfe_IRE

Snow cover differences between this time last year and this week.

icesnowfrost

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

www.met.ie

FINNER DONEGAL(A) W 08 LIGHT SLEET 4 95 2.5 976
11Pm

near finner camp

Wolfe_IRE

regarding the above snow cover map i posted.

It's interesting to the extent that snow cover in Europe is considerably greater on Oct 30, 2012, compared to the same day last year.

Snow cover rate of growth in October in Eurasia has been greater this month (Oct) compared to the past three years. In the areas concerned and in areas such as Ireland/UK that occasionally are under the influence of a continental air-mass, the faster the rate of growth the greater the chances of a colder, snowier winter. The more entrenched the cold is over Scandinavia, Russia, and central Europe, the more likely it is for Ireland/UK to experience deep cold when our air-mass originates from here.

Deep Easterly

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

www.met.ie

FINNER DONEGAL(A) W 08 LIGHT SLEET 4 95 2.5 976
11Pm

Possible in a heavier burst but with dew point of 3.0c I'd be wary of that report as it is automated.

Smidge

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

regarding the above snow cover map i posted.

It's interesting to the extent that snow cover in Europe is considerably greater on Oct 30, 2012, compared to the same day last year.

Snow cover rate of growth in October in Eurasia has been greater this month (Oct) compared to the past three years. In the areas concerned and in areas such as Ireland/UK that occasionally are under the influence of a continental air-mass, the faster the rate of growth the greater the chances of a colder, snowier winter. The more entrenched the cold is over Scandinavia, Russia, and central Europe, the more likely it is for Ireland/UK to experience deep cold when our air-mass originates from here.

Having difficulty making out parts of the map, what countries are covered in the 2012 map?

Wolfe_IRE

Smidge wrote: »

Having difficulty making out parts of the map, what countries are covered in the 2012 map?

much of Scandinavia, a track through central Europe, and much of Russia

Iancar29

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Possible in a heavier burst but with dew point of 3.0c I'd be wary of that report as it is automated.

Wet sleet if anything...

Pangea

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Possible in a heavier burst but with dew point of 3.0c I'd be wary of that report as it is automated.

Poor Finner never gets taken seriously by you lot :pac:

babalobioddy

Hi, just wondering has MT posted his winter forecast, or did I miss the boat on that one ?

Loughc

Bloody freezing this morning heading to work!!!

Love it!

p.oconnor

First snowfall of the year here in North County Cork .... long may it continue!



Edit: Heavy snow now falling in this part of the country

bkelaine

Snowing in dromahane, n cork :-)

gbee

bkelaine wrote: »

Snowing in dromahane, n cork :-)

Pics or it's not real .....

weatherfiend

So jealous!!!!

srmambo

bkelaine wrote: »

Snowing in dromahane, n cork :-)

Looks like Cork is getting all the fun now from floods from storms to snow :P

Deep Easterly

Pangea wrote: »

Poor Finner never gets taken seriously by you lot :pac:

Oh it does, believe me! but its wise to take reports of sleet or snow from automated stations with a pinch of salt, especially when the reported temperature and dew point don't really add up. I still think it is possible that sleet may have fallen during a heavier burst though.

Tindie

I know it useless at this times, The Santa is back on the Snow-o-Meter on metcheck.com.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Ya know the winter season has started when I buy the netweather extra subscription

Bring on the red blotches right over my house !