Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Trotter

Everytime I think I'm getting the hang of this, something pops up that throws me. Looking at these charts, I can see where the blocking kicks in. I'd have expected to have to get my snow boots out, but am I right in saying that the air to the east and north simply isnt cold enough to have a dramatic albeit short term effect for Ireland?

Gonzo

i think were still a bit early in the season to expect decent snowfalls in the next 3 weeks... it happened in 2009/2010 but those years were exceptional cold and luck. Even in the glorious 80s it rarely snowed till Christmas week.

Sponge Bob

Trotter wrote: »

am I right in saying that the air to the east and north simply isnt cold enough to have a dramatic albeit short term effect for Ireland?

Yep, the pool of cold that develops in the lee of the block is marginally cold rather than seriously cold. Right pattern if there was a colder airmass over Scandinavia ready to expand west ...by Sunday,

Trotter

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Yep, the pool of cold that develops in the lee of the block is marginally cold rather than seriously cold. Right pattern if there was a colder airmass over Scandinavia ready to expand west ...by Sunday,

I always found those Scandinavians unreliable

ninebeanrows

Important to look at 2010 for an example of how the synoptic developed from a situation with no cold pool nearby to our 50 year freeze.


The synoptic on the ECM are not to be sniffed at.

Harps

Weathercheck wrote: »

Important to look at 2010 for an example of how the synoptic developed from a situation with no cold pool nearby to our 50 year freeze.


The synoptic on the ECM are not to be sniffed at.

An uncanny resemblance all right between this day two years ago and what GFS is predicting for next week! Better heights over Greenland in 2010 is the most notable and probably most important factor for us but still, amazing how similar the two are

cherryghost

GFS seems to develop something similar. Nothing too cold at the moment though as it's not a true westerly low, but it does eventually drag -4 upper over us. Looks interesting either way on both charts, very stubborn to leave.

Capillatus

Musicman2000

update from the bbc/ukmet http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/20419248

BEASTERLY

A good point made in that video that is worth taking on board. Focus on the pattern change for now, when we get it, then start looking for snow, upper temps and dew points. I see some people going into cardiac arrest over on netweather over 850hpa temp charts for over 10 days away.

leahyl

I note from this mornings forecast that MT isn't too confident about any significant cold spell developing in the next few weeks. Not good Let's hope he's not right!

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

I note from this mornings forecast that MT isn't too confident about any significant cold spell developing in the next few weeks. Not good Let's hope he's not right!

still a lot of uncertainty as he said himself. At least there is a change in pattern.

kstand

leahyl wrote: »

I note from this mornings forecast that MT isn't too confident about any significant cold spell developing in the next few weeks. Not good Let's hope he's not right!

I wouldnt be expecting snow in the next 2 weeks. But a welcome change to colder, drier weather with frost is certainly on the cards. Anything is better than this miserable Atlantic low-pressure muck.

Wolfe_IRE

The forecast is heading in the direction that the models have indicated for the past 2-3 weeks i.e. colder and more settled for the final week of Nov and into Dec. Anyone looking for snow will have to look beyond November in the computer models. A return to milder, Altlantic influenced weather is unlikely in the next 2-3 weeks. Therefore, the potential is there for more significant wintry weather.

DOCARCH

The trend is your friend....:)

Tom Cruises Left Nut

DOCARCH wrote: »

The trend is your friend....:)

It certainly is interesting, much more interesting than the snorefest last year !

Blizzard 2010

While M.T is entitlled to his opinion, we can have snow at short notice 4-5 days. The models will probably re-adjust themselves in the next few days towards the weekend. I still wouldnt rule out snow next week:)

Iancar29

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

While M.T is entitlled to his opinion, we can have snow at short notice 4-5 days. The models will probably re-adjust themselves in the next few days towards the weekend. I still wouldnt rule out snow next week:)

I agree blizzard, theres still a borderline situation like 2 weeks back for next week . High ground mainly. But from the first week of December still looks interesting. DO remember , though we might not be seeing great cold pools to the E , NE ... once we have some blocking in place it will increase the chance of us getting more reasonable 850temps and the like...

But for now im looking forward to some nice frosty clear nights at least

ninebeanrows

Some really encouraging signs again today, we really could be staring down the barrel of a prolonged freeze.

It will take a few days of juggling once we get the easterly feed in place but current projections do indicate it will steadily turn colder and perhaps severely cold as we enter early December.

Usual FI caveats apply.

Redsunset

UK and US with cold coming better pray this is not the start of long harsh winter. Cold will slap u in face, and pick yourpocket

@joebastardi

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Redsunset wrote: »

UK and US with cold coming better pray this is not the start of long harsh winter. Cold will slap u in face, and pick yourpocket

@joebastardi

He has an....erm.... way with words !

tresb26

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=00&stn=TT850&hh=240&map=eur&stn2=PT&runb=00&mod2=gfs&hh2=240&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

Interesting

ninebeanrows

Good trends early this evening, cold pool getting closer out of Russian Arctic sooner ... Interesting period ahead...... (Not to ramp or anything.....)

BEASTERLY

Just to show how small differences in the synoptic can make big difference in the particulars. The 12z GFS evolution brings -6c at the 850hpa level by 192 hours(and colder on the way), just inside the hi res time frame. It demonstrates how finely balanced the situation is, so looking at particulars at this stage is rather useless.

BLIZZARD7

My lack of posts on each run is due to being busy rather than not being happy- The charts are exceptional at the moment. We are possibly looking at a Really severe and prolonged cold spell- Time will tell...

While we have differences early on between the models, but they are all looking great in their own way.

+120hrs UKMO 12z



+120hrs GFS 12z



Both show a greeny high building, low pressure nearby Ireland and an Arctic High pushing down with a cross-polar flow- Incredible.

We then have this by next wednesday- Blocking high firmly in place to our north and cold pouring down from our North East.



These are incredible charts to see, I wasnt expecting them so early in the winter- very good signs and potential for this cold to get more and more severe with the polar vortex expected to take repeated hits through December...





Dan

Eastcoastryan

Dan, I hope you dont mind me saying this but after that post.. I Officially Love You!!

I hope we haven't jinxed it, I'm trying not to get excited!!

munsterlegend

These are incredible charts to see, I wasnt expecting them so early in the winter- very good signs and potential for this cold to get more and more severe with the polar vortex expected to take repeated hits through December...





Dan [/QUOTE]

It would be great if MT was in similar agreement as he wasn't too convinced of any significant changes this morning.

ZX7R

MT probably only said that because he probably based his forecast on earlier charts and there is stronger sings of cold in the latest run of charts.
I could be totally wrong

pistolpetes11

munsterlegend wrote: »

I presume this is why he is banned? I am sure this non relevant post to Model Discussion can be removed in due course!

And we will leave the DM2 chat here folks, he is currently site baned which is out of our hands, he may have the option to PM me his thoughts and I will post them up

TheMilkyPirate

She's nearly split right down the middle here.