Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Pretty much is here !!!

Musicman2000

Thats what you called an arctic high:) Fantastic charts surprised this thread is so quiet with the charts today from the Gfs and Ecm.

maquiladora

I'm guessing Netweather is in absolute meltdown over the ECM T240 chart.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

240 !!!!

Lucreto

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Thats what you called an arctic high:) Fantastic charts surprised this thread is so quiet with the charts today from the Gfs and Ecm.

Maybe everyone has fainted from looking at the charts or out stocking up on supplies.:D

What surprises me is that last week (or the week before) charts showing no split in the vortex and people saying we won't see one this side of Christmas to a huge split in todays charts.

bb1234567

Ooooh I havnt checked this thread in like a week or two and everything seems to be looking a lot brighter for snow than it was a while ago But im not getting excited just yet:cool:

doccy

maquiladora wrote: »

I'm guessing Netweather is in absolute meltdown over the ECM T240 chart.

Artic high ... winter of the century ... it'll probably implode if the charts downgrade tomorrow

Musicman2000

doccy wrote: »

Artic high ... winter of the century ... it'll probably implode if the charts downgrade tomorrow

You could be right, Its way out on FI , could well be a lot different by tomorrow, we will have to wait and see.

ninebeanrows

Small concern is the lower of heights over Greenland.

However debating 240hr chart of a single model is foolish.

Very good overall synoptic tonight

leahyl

But guys is there really any point in getting too excited?? It's still very far out right? (don't get me wrong though i'm ready to burst!)

derekon

I am no expert on the various weather models, however it is encouraging to see that all the main models (particularly the ECMWF) appear to be on board at the moment for cold -8 850hPA uppers over Ireland from around the 1st of December with a strong cold blast coming over the island from the north east.

To the more experienced weather watchers on this board - I am taking it that this is a good trend and that the pattern is now indicating a change from Atlantic based rain systems to cold from the east ?

British Weather Services (reputable enough and made up of ex-UK Met Office folk) has just issued a weather warning for early December which would also cover Ireland. They too appear confident of an impending cold spell.

Written by BWS on November 21, 2012 in General Weather

As often seems to be the case, the change of month will bring a change of weather, with much colder air set to affect all parts of the UK as we go into December and what is ‘official Winter’. The change is expected to start early next week as winds swing into the NE and although it won’t be cold enough initially for much snow away from high ground, overnight frosts will become more of a feature across the north in particular.

As we move into early December it now looks highly likely that cold air will predominate, with the risk of snow increasing and maybe persisting into week two, even at low levels. Overnight frosts will also be widespread and may become moderate, perhaps even locally severe later, especially where snow cover exists.

At this stage it’s fair to say the length and depth of the cold spell still remains uncertain, but confidence is now high that December will start with a wintry look for the whole UK, therefore those with a particular risk/sensitivity to such conditions may wish to prepare accordingly. You have been warned!

D

Su Campu

It's amazing. MT is now being doubted for not being convinced of possible cold two weeks away, yet on the other side, if he merely mentions the word cold then he's taken as God. The same ole story every year.

Speak Now

leahyl wrote: »

But guys is there really any point in getting too excited?? It's still very far out right? (don't get me wrong though i'm ready to burst!)

Wouldnt get excited until the cold is in place leahyl, Easterlies dont delivery to everyone just like Northerlies dont deliver to my location.

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

But guys is there really any point in getting too excited?? It's still very far out right? (don't get me wrong though i'm ready to burst!)

I can understand why people would be excited. For me though, it's too far away, subject to too much change and even if it did happen it might not be more than a short cold snap.

pistolpetes11

Su Campu wrote: »

It's amazing. MT is now being doubted for not being convinced of possible cold two weeks away, yet on the other side, if he merely mentions the word cold then he's taken as God. The same ole story every year.

In fairness there is only cautious optimism ,


I for one am not doubting MT , and would say the same for lots of other posters can this place has not gone off the hook yet .

Now were MT to come out and say something about a cold blast I think this place would be a lot lot busier, because he is indicating nothing like that I think its relatively quite

Rebelbrowser

Su Campu wrote: »

It's amazing. MT is now being doubted for not being convinced of possible cold two weeks away, yet on the other side, if he merely mentions the word cold then he's taken as God. The same ole story every year.

Whats your thinking Su? We know its looking good if / when you come on board in my experience.

TheMilkyPirate

18z is wankworthy in places.

dexter647

lol...It is indeed with some crazy Fi alright..Can't let myself get pulled in again this year as it's bad for the health:D

Su Campu

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Whats your thinking Su? We know its looking good if / when you come on board in my experience.

It is a good start. I've thought all along that our best chance of substantial cold would be before the end of the year, with the chances tapering off in January. There's a good blast of potential northward through the Bering Strait and a good cold outbreak over NE Canada. This will form a Nor'easter which will pump those heights northward towards the Norwegian Sea to link with the others near Novaya Zemlya. Negative AOL and NAO, with vortex splitting evident in 2 weeks up to 10 hPa. Not enough cold to our east at the moment but should the vortex split verify then we could see a watered-down 2010 again before Christmas. I'd be leaning 60/40 in favour of that now, but would reckon that would be it for the winter.

Birdnuts

baraca wrote: »

18z is wankworthy in places.

Where's that famous link from 2010 showing yer man in front of his computer gettin all excited??:D

Caff Caff

As per my previous posts, the trend continues on the models but today just blew me away! I am remaining cautious though as this could change tomorrow but again it is an exciting cite for any weather or snow enthusiast. This trend coming from the east is quite positive but to echo Su Campu and others, it's just not cold enough there just yet and we would need to see a big difference between now and the next two weeks. Let's just enjoy the charts while they are rolling out.

BLIZZARD7

Okay- Amazing charts today, Couldnt even imagine these charts before 2009/2010.

At 96hrs we have a low digging south over Ireland, High pressure trying to ridge into Greenland and High pressure building over the arctic.

+96hrs GFS 18Z



+120hrs GFS 18z - Blocking High in the atlantic/Greenland and a building arctic high pushing south, A low pressure meandering around Ireland/UK + Polar vortex is split.



+144Hrs GFS 18z Has a proper Greeny High/Arctic High, WAA over Greenland, A low to our South driving a north easterly airflow over Ireland.



+168hrs GFS 18z, Perfect Greenland High, Very cold air backing south west out of siberia/scandi heading our direction...



Height anomaly at +168hrs GFS 18z,
Simply incredible and very rare...



Cold Uppers reach us by +192hrs.



And for fun- Eye candy from the 18z GFS .

+240 Hrs



+288hrs - Incredible high pressure over canada/Greenland/The Arctic- Polar vortex moving into scandi-



+324hrs - Large chunk of Polar vortex now headed for Ireland- Insane weather if that happened.



The above is just one of many runs today that have produced an extremely blocked pattern with cold uppers upgrading and getting closer run by run...

Take the last few charts with a large pinch of salt as FI is +120hrs in my opinion, BUT there is definitley an insane amount of potential for a severe cold spell that could rival 47/63/82/10,
Im especially liking the way the low pressure systems get so close to our south on the GFS 18z. while introducing milder uppers, This could create great battleground type events with the cold winning out.

Im confident of the blocked pattern sustaining and building over the next 2 weeks atleast- reason being the 8-14 day 500mb charts have been very consistent in showing patterns such as this over the last few days-



Its a long way back to zonality from there.

While the GFS and ECM have small differences between them that will affect our weather, they seem in broad agreement about the overall pattern for days 8-10. These charts are rarely wrong.



Now lets have a look at the AO and NAO.

AO-



It could be better but it is showing a negative trend but a wide scatter too, NAO much the same- only thing is these are driven by what the models show not vice versa and so I wouldnt be too worried when you consider that.



18Z GFS Ensembles for Dublin- Getting colder and colder as each run passes.



Im expecting upgrades in 850hpa temps on tomorrow's runs with the colder uppers been brought forward a couple of frames.





Dan

Jaffusmaximus

A wee question, I have been keeping an eye on a few weather websites extended outlooks and one of them being accuweather. They have not adjusted their temps to suggest any sort of cold snap. Now are they just being cautious or are some of those temp ranges displayed just plucked out of the air to resemble the mean temp for that time of year?

ZX7R

Su Campu wrote: »

It is a good start. I've thought all along that our best chance of substantial cold would be before the end of the year, with the chances tapering off in January. There's a good blast of potential northward through the Bering Strait and a good cold outbreak over NE Canada. This will form a Nor'easter which will pump those heights northward to wards the Norwegian Sea to link with the others near Novaya Zemlya. Negative AOL and NAO, with vortex splitting evident in 2 weeks up to 10 hPa. Not enough cold to our east at the moment but should the vortex split verify then we could see a watered-down 2010 again before Christmas. I'd be leaning 60/40 in favour of that now, but would reckon that would be it for the winter.

Hi su i think you are right,but in reference to a lack of a cold pool of air in the east was it not the same in 2010 when we got the first belt of cold and snow and the cold air came from artic,i remember talking to my in laws in southern Poland and they were having unusual mild weather at that time also Ukraine and surrounding areas ,but when we got the second blast near Christmas 2010 they were in a deep freeze also with the air coming from Siberia.
Just asking your opinion on this.

pistolpetes11

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

A wee question, I have been keeping an eye on a few weather websites extended outlooks and one of them being accuweather. They have not adjusted their temps to suggest any sort of cold snap. Now are they just being cautious or are some of those temp ranges displayed just plucked out of the air to resemble the mean temp for that time of year?

There automated on each model run I think , so pretty much a waste of time , plus there is only cold conditions not a deep freeze showing , if all sets into place nicely it could still be two to three weeks away from a proper freeze but there is so many if or buts to come

Speak Now

Jaffusmaximus wrote: »

A wee question, I have been keeping an eye on a few weather websites extended outlooks and one of them being accuweather. They have not adjusted their temps to suggest any sort of cold snap. Now are they just being cautious or are some of those temp ranges displayed just plucked out of the air to resemble the mean temp for that time of year?

Nothing in the reliable time frame yet really, just cooler than average to begin with.

Jostef

This is the latest from British Weather Services. (0900 this morning).

*********************************

By way of an update on the previous cold weather advisory of last week, things remain on track re the UK & Ireland taking a distinct wintry turn during the course of next week and particularly the end of November and the first week in December.

Meaningful snow for the mountains and hills and Scotland and Northern Ireland will be the first port of call as early as Monday/Tuesday 26th/27th; along with fairly widespread frosts. However, the cold air will continue to encroach from the north and east over the following day or so and with low pressure never that far away, the snow threat will at first heighten over the rest of Scotland and NE England – gradually expanding south and west as we move towards month’s end.

Suffice to say, the 29th Nov – 7th December is expected to contain a serious snow threat to many parts of the UK. The main emphasis will be in the north and the east, with the heaviest snowfall set for hilly areas – though the precise impact details nationwide are only likely to become apparent on a day to day basis nearer the time and are in any case subject to change in what is an evolving situation.

For commerical concers, details of our emailed Weather Alert service, giving day to day warnings of severe impacting weather may be obtained here -: http://www.britishweatherservices.co.uk/weather-alerts/

Please continue with any general preparedness.

ENDS:

*******************************

......Woohoooo!!

Wolfe_IRE

I am noticing a real battleground scenario over Ireland between Atlantic fronts and the colder NE originating airmass. If we are going to seen widespread snowfall before the end of the month, then I would imagine it would come from such a setup. Otherwise, we will be waiting until the second/third week of Dec before much colder air becomes established over Ireland. A very interesting setup.

leahyl

:pac:

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

I am noticing a real battleground scenario over Ireland between Atlantic fronts and the colder NE originating airmass. If we are going to seen widespread snowfall before the end of the month, then I would imagine it would come from such a setup. Otherwise, we will be waiting until the second/third week of Dec before much colder air becomes established over Ireland. A very interesting setup.

OMG, note to self: do NOT get too excited......:P:D:pac:

snaps

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

I am noticing a real battleground scenario over Ireland between Atlantic fronts and the colder NE originating airmass. If we are going to seen widespread snowfall before the end of the month, then I would imagine it would come from such a setup. Otherwise, we will be waiting until the second/third week of Dec before much colder air becomes established over Ireland. A very interesting setup.

oh no......the Atlantic always wins! I thought there was blocking being mentioned by high pressure? Has this dissapeared now?