Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Musicman2000

snaps wrote: »

oh no......the Atlantic always wins! I thought there was blocking being mentioned by high pressure? Has this dissapeared now?

No blocking still showing up, but wont happen till next week

Calibos

I remember the battleground scenario just before Xmas '09. Lashed rain for 2 days straight. Had that fallen as snow Xmas '09 would have gone down as an '82 beater. Thankfully didn't end up disappointed as the winter delivered New Years Eve through January 2010.

Iancar29

IMO , this morning's models are still looking good for a decent cold snap from the 1st of December.


As Wolfe and others mentioned its still very much a battle ground situation from Next weekend (30th), where we have the 524 dam line over NI at the very end of the higher resolution of the gfs.

So id go for then more of a risk of low level snow in NE areas maybe North Leinster for some wet snow . Then more generally , most of the east coast at high levels gettin the odd shower feeding in off a NE breeze.





Apart from the snow risk it looks to get quite CHILLY in the midlands some some hard frost in places.




So yeah , bring on the next few runs and lets see how the broader situation unfolds! ..

munsterlegend

UK Outlook for Friday 7 Dec 2012 to Friday 21 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. However, there are signs that northerly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are favoured, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow.

Updated: 1142 on Thu 22 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Pangea

Calibos wrote: »

I remember the battleground scenario just before Xmas '09. Lashed rain for 2 days straight. Had that fallen as snow Xmas '09 would have gone down as an '82 beater. Thankfully didn't end up disappointed as the winter delivered New Years Eve through January 2010.

Luckily enough that battleground turned to snow here, with the Cold winning out and stayed for the best part of three weeks, a perfect Christmas day it was.

snowstreams

Calibos wrote: »

I remember the battleground scenario just before Xmas '09. Lashed rain for 2 days straight. Had that fallen as snow Xmas '09 would have gone down as an '82 beater. Thankfully didn't end up disappointed as the winter delivered New Years Eve through January 2010.

Yes thats true, but all the rain turned to snow in the wicklow mountains. I'll never forget the sight of trees just poking out of the deep snow!
The snow depth up there varied from 3 feet deep to over 10 feet deep in places.

Here is a pic of a car we found buried in the snow. It was already vandalised though.

Wolfe_IRE

A tanking AO and negative NAO each favour a colder setup for Ireland/Britain
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

BEASTERLY

Wolfe_IRE wrote: »

A tanking AO and negative NAO each favour a colder setup for Ireland/Britain
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

AO being progged to go more negative with every update. It's a nice change when a situation which looked OK looks better and better as it approaches reliable timefrime.

cherryghost

New GFS rollout certainly looks encouraging. Cold air mass situated further west so it seems

munsterlegend

cherryghost wrote: »

New GFS rollout certainly looks encouraging. Cold air mass situated further west so it seems

UKMO not so good so onto the ECM which rolls out next.

maquiladora

Well into FI on the ECM, 192 hours, and still only -2 uppers over Ireland.

I agree that there is potential there, but I just can't get excited over this setup at all. Hopefully it improves, but I have my doubts.

BLIZZARD7

maquiladora wrote: »

Well into FI on the ECM, 192 hours, and still only -2 uppers over Ireland.

I agree that there is potential there, but I just can't get excited over this setup at all. Hopefully it improves, but I have my doubts.

We have -4/-5 uppers over most of the country at +120hrs...





Dan

maquiladora

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

We have -4/-5 uppers over most of the country at +120hrs...





Dan

For a couple of days before retreating again. I know that will change again on the next set of runs, but just the fact that its a week or more away and looks like rain/sleet at low levels at best even then doesn't fill me with any confidence. There is clearly potential there for a pattern change but I'm just not getting a good 'feeling' from this at the moment. Maybe the pub run will cheer me up later.

Su Campu

As the weather decides what it wants to do it might be a good time for some revision!

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056447334

Larbre34

Su Campu wrote: »

As the weather decides what it wants to do it might be a good time for some revision!

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056447334

are you all sitting comfortably? then ill begin!

thanks Su for the timely recap

maquiladora

Some stunning looking charts on the 18Z GFS in deep FI (although the real colder air somehow never gets here at all). Far too far away to get excited about though.

Sponge Bob

The NAO predictions ( negative) from the NOAA are generally derived from the GFS and we know how well that model handled Hurricane Sandy a few weeks back.

NOGAPS is toying with a positive NAO well into next week

Musicman2000

maquiladora wrote: »

Some stunning looking charts on the 18Z GFS in deep FI (although the real colder air somehow never gets here at all). Far too far away to get excited about though.

Just an update on the ECM 32 day control run from snowking over on NW which we don't have access to only the likes of Met Eireann.

[HTML]Big change from the previous update, this time rather than signalling raging zonality, it builds in a big scandinavian HP at around +400 mark to repel any attempt from the atlantic to get back in, LP from the atlantic undercuts the block and i'll leave you to guess what that leads too

For the remainder of the run its much the same, blocking transferring between our NW and NE, repeated undercutting scenarios (including one showing on xmas eve) and generally cold

So from the control run its a case of a continuation of prevalent northern blocking in our part of the world[/HTML]

Redsunset

Joe bastardi and Piers corbyn having a conversation on different opinion about December on Twitter.

Joe says cold. Piers say mostly mild Ireland and Uk.

Then Joe say at least the 1st 2 weeks will be cold and shows a CFS.



Flip a coin then.

mrweatherman

Redsunset wrote: »

Joe bastardi and Piers corbyn having a conversation on different opinion about December on Twitter.

Joe says cold. Piers say mostly mild Ireland and Uk.

Then Joe say at least the 1st 2 weeks will be cold and shows a CFS.



Flip a coin then.

According to metcheck east coast is to see snow for near a week to 1st week of december!! As most know both accuweather and metcheck are automated but could be a little bit of hope on the way

leahyl

Guys are all these models 'positive' for Ireland as a whole or just the East Coast?? I understand that most people on here are living in the East (ie Dublin ) but spare a thought for us "culchies" outside of the big schmoke! IF these models were to come off would it just be the east that would get the main snowfall??

DOCARCH

Am liking the ME outlook this morning:

MONDAY: The rain and possible sleet should clear the east later on Monday, followed by sunny spells and scattered showers, and cold northerly winds will set in.

FURTHER OUTLOOK: At the moment it looks like the following days will be cold and breezy with fresh north to northeast winds. Many places will be dry though, with sunny spells, but showers will affect exposed coast in the west, north and east. Temperatures are expected to be below normal with frost at night.

Not expecting a deluge of snow or anything of the like....but prospect of cold uppers, NE wind and warm Irish Sea = interesting times!

Speak Now

leahyl wrote: »

Guys are all these models 'positive' for Ireland as a whole or just the East Coast?? I understand that most people on here are living in the East (ie Dublin ) but spare a thought for us "culchies" outside of the big schmoke! IF these models were to come off would it just be the east that would get the main snowfall??

Hi Leahyl - Cork best chance off an Easterly is probably from an under cutting low from the south. I'm sure you would have it got it in Jan 2010. Not sure how you fared Feb 2009. I think you probably got the showers in Nov 2010 as they were quite potent travelling across from the east where as the ones from the Vortex split in December 2010 only hit the east coast. I wouldnt worry about details until it gets cold enough for snow to fall near sea level.

Deep Easterly

leahyl wrote: »

IF these models were to come off would it just be the east that would get the main snowfall??

I would say more north/northwest - at least in the medium term, with perhaps some sloppy, sleety type showers by night but mostly of cold rain or hail. General rule of thumb is that coastal counties exposed to what ever wind direction is occurring at any one time are most prone to seeing the most showers at this time of year. This morning is a good example, the west wind is throwing in some light showers from the Atlantic to the west of Ireland.

http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

Model wise, I am failing to see anything of interest at all, Cool, bright weather, the odd coastal shower, the odd frost at night. Pretty much the standard void non-descriptness we have endured over the duration of this Autumn season so far.

snaps

Deep Easterly wrote: »

This morning is a good example, the west wind is throwing in some light showers from the Atlantic to the west of Ireland.

they are not too light. We've had some real downpours here this morning!

snaps

I'm looking forward to dry days. Ground is saturated here. I can see the models have potential for a few cold days and nights towards end of next week. Following week is fi I know, but hit and miss with either Atlantic muck or a continuation of cold air building from the NE. I just want a spell of fetish weather.

maquiladora

There is some great potential in what the models are showing this morning. Absolutely no point looking at details like what areas or exact upper air temps because it still so far away that its changing significantly on each run and could so easily become a lot less interesting over the next few days.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

There is some great potential in what the models are showing this morning. Absolutely no point looking at details like what areas or exact upper air temps because it still so far away that its changing significantly on each run and could so easily become a lot less interesting over the next few days.

Maq are you happier than yesterday about the output?!!

Redsunset

Yes I would happily bank the entire 06z gfs run. Some wonderful snow would most definitely be had. Anyway that's really for the FI thread I suppose but all encouraging with the split vortex and all allowing ridging to form in a favourable position.(Atlantic)

Let's get the Atlantic shut down first and then we can see what sort of cold air we can draw from Arctic regions.

One thing that is certain for the moment, Zonal weather is being kicked to the curb.

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

Maq are you happier than yesterday about the output?!!

As long as the potential is still there, I'll be a little happier after each 0Z and 12Z. But until I start seeing the interesting stuff appear closer to reality and not out in FI then I won't be getting excited over anything.