Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Deep Easterly

snaps wrote: »

they are not too light. We've had some real downpours here this morning!

Been having the same stream of showers here all morning going by radar, and they are not really that heavy, though they are dirty enough.

Redsunset

Joe bastardi is well and truly championing a cold Dec.


Euro December to remember Newsmaking cold on way,.. shades of 2010. 

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Redsunset wrote: »

Joe bastardi is well and truly championing a cold Dec.


Euro December to remember Newsmaking cold on way,.. shades of 2010. 

The more each run comes out the more I am getting excited here, some incredible synoptics around

leahyl

Oh my God, it's all way too good to come true.......isn't it???:D I have a feeling that we might all be brought back down to earth with a bang very soon:(

Tom Cruises Left Nut

leahyl wrote: »

Oh my God, it's all way too good to come true.......isn't it???:D I have a feeling that we might all be brought back down to earth with a bang very soon:(

Ha, this is always the worry ! Good to see charts like this though even if it isn't as good as it looks, we all remember the snorefest of last year

pad199207

Redsunset wrote: »

Joe bastardi is well and truly championing a cold Dec.


Euro December to remember Newsmaking cold on way,.. shades of 2010.

Sure even if theres a dusting of snow here in Ireland it makes the news!

BEASTERLY

06z GFS is fantastic at t192, although that is still very much FI territory in this set up.







Streamers anyone?

SnowDrifts

BEASTERLY wrote: »

06z GFS is fantastic at t192, although that is still very much FI territory in this set up.

Like most on here, I take FI charts with a pinch of salt but if they are trending to a colder period, even deep into FI, things are looking good.

Lets not forget the first anticipation of the cold period during November 2010. Darkman started a thread on the 15th highlighting the cold/snow risk 10-12 days before the snow came.

Wolfe_IRE

Updated forecast from the company that own The Weather Channel

WSI (Weather Services International) expects temperatures for the upcoming period (December-February) to average slightly lower than normal across the UK and Iberia, with higher-than-normal temperatures expected across other regions, especially western Russia.

“Our initial winter forecast was fairly aggressive with the idea of a warm, wet winter across northern Europe, including the UK, as the majority of the dynamical and statistical models suggested a relative lack of North Atlantic blocking,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, WSI Chief Meteorologist. “Over the last month, however, most of the trends in the various models have been more suggestive of increased winter blocking in the North Atlantic. Because of this, we have made changes in our forecast towards colder winter temperatures across parts of western Europe. If recent trends continue, we may have to adjust our forecasts towards even colder temperatures in future updates.”

In December, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal
UK* – Colder than normal
Northern Mainland* – Warmer than normal, except France
Southern Mainland* – Colder than normal

In January, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
UK – Colder than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except western France
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal, except Iberia

In February, WSI forecasts:
Nordic Region – Warmer than normal, except northern coastal regions
UK – Warmer than normal
Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

WSI provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader Web site. WSI will issue its next seasonal outlook on 26 December.

Iancar29

Even Simon Keeling is in a slight RAMPING mood!

Trotter

Am I right in thinking the 12z GFS doesn't do much for us? The precip option on the meteociel site shows significantly less snow and more rain. The silence here since it came out would suggest an 'oh no...' moment!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

The ECM is much much better

maquiladora

Trotter wrote: »

Am I right in thinking the 12z GFS doesn't do much for us? The precip option on the meteociel site shows significantly less snow and more rain. The silence here since it came out would suggest an 'oh no...' moment!

It ramps up a low south of Greenland that causes some problems, but the UKMO and the ECM just rolling out now don't show that happening.

snaps

looking at the recent GFS charts, the cold seems to be dissapearing now from Thursday onwards? Even the FI charts now have Atlantic in full boom. Perhaps its my untrained eye that is at fault. I was hoping for some cold, dry weather for a week or so.

Musicman2000

snaps wrote: »

looking at the recent GFS charts, the cold seems to be dissapearing now from Thursday onwards? Even the FI charts now have Atlantic in full boom. Perhaps its my untrained eye that is at fault. I was hoping for some cold, dry weather for a week or so.

I think you need to look at the charts again, the Atlantic is far from being in full boom, There is a major Northern hemisphere change about to happen with some major blocking and the models are struggling at anything past 192 hours, fi will change from day to day so your best bet is to ignore anything past 192 hours.

ninebeanrows

ECM is shortwave massacre but it's at 192hrs, up to that the pattern is very very good.

Lets hope the shortwave does one!

BEASTERLY

This is how I hope it all works out! It's fun to dream!

Redsunset

Weathercheck wrote: »

ECM is shortwave massacre but it's at 192hrs, up to that the pattern is very very good.

Lets hope the shortwave does one!

I think anything past 96hrs is subject to a lot of tweaking. Nothing to worry about.

mickger844posts

Redsunset wrote: »

I think anything past 96hrs is subject to a lot of tweaking. Nothing to worry about.

Agree 100%. Still all to play for. think its safe to say whatever happens in the next few weeks it will be a million times better than the disaster of last Winter.

Larbre34

easy now gents, no hostages to fortune this early in the season please!

Harps

Am I the only one who actually quite enjoyed December last year then? Frequent storms, thunder and squally hail showers in the first two thirds of the month with a few days of lying snow.

The coming week just looks cold and dry for most..

tresb26

http://meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php

180hrs looking interesting, although still too far away to be more certain

srocliffe

Harps wrote: »

Am I the only one who actually quite enjoyed December last year then? Frequent storms, thunder and squally hail showers in the first two thirds of the month with a few days of lying snow.

The coming week just looks cold and dry for most..

Well I might have enjoyed it if any of those things happened here, "lying snow??", last snow I saw, lying or otherwise was December 2010, last winter was a mild snorefest, at least on the east coast anyway.

maquiladora

Will be interesting to see what the 18Z GFS does now around that 120-144 period.

Eastcoastryan

Not a bad forecast from Evelyn there? Did she mention the possibilty of rain turning to snow tomorrow night?? Also she showed a chart for Dec 1st and I could have sworn it showed NW winds? is it not more likely to be NE winds at that stage?

maquiladora

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

Not a bad forecast from Evelyn there? Did she mention the possibilty of rain turning to snow tomorrow night?? Also she showed a chart for Dec 1st and I could have sworn it showed NW winds? is it not more likely to be NE winds at that stage?

Too far ahead to know anything yet. I wouldn't look past next Wednesday yet.

Redsunset

maquiladora

18Z GFS looks like it will be a better run out in FI, for cold prospects. Also, some serious flooding concerns for England/Wales by then too.

Iancar29

I agree Maq.. once again some nice battleground events happening next weekend , but details are still changing so wont know yet for another few days..


ENgland looks to have serious problems indeed over the next few days !

snowstreams

Iancar29 wrote: »

..
ENgland looks to have serious problems indeed over the next few days !

Is the november flooding in England in anyway similar to the November flooding we got in 09?
If I remember correctly the moist air that came with the floods allowed the blocking to form for the December & January freeze.

If the floods are in the uk this time maybe the cold will be further east too? That's my main worry because we were too far west last year.