Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

icesnowfrost

lovely cold crisp nite in louth....great to see frost on the grass and not just the cars

Redsunset

icesnowfrost wrote: »

lovely cold crisp nite in louth....great to see frost on the grass and not just the cars

I see you found the thread you were seeking. Rant over then?


In model news the Arctic Oscillation is showing serious tanking towards -6.

I say it's on the Christmas drink a bit early and forecast -3/-4 at best.

Not that -6 wouldn't be welcome or anything. Hell I'd have it at -10 if I had my wicked way. Siberia all the way baby.

icesnowfrost

Redsunset wrote: »

I see you found the thread you were seeking. Rant over then?


In model news the Arctic Oscillation is showing serious tanking towards -6.

I say it's on the Christmas drink a bit early and forecast -3/-4 at best.

Not that -6 wouldn't be welcome or anything. Hell I'd have it at -10 if I had my wicked way. Siberia all the way baby.

yes. it was panic stations there at one stage:cool:........just seen the late weather forecast on rte there..evelyn was saying we might have snow in the east 2morro evening and sunday evening for a short time...:D:D:D:D:D:D

Su Campu

Snow above around 700 m in the east tomorrow so we should see the tops of the mountains white on Sunday.

barney 20v

Su Campu wrote: »

Snow above around 700 m in the east tomorrow so we should see the tops of the mountains white on Sunday.

I will have to keep an eye on the
Blackstairs this weekend so!
We regularly get snow atop the local mountains.

snaps

Pub run charts provided some good runs (GFS this time) especially for next weekend! Some real cold weather from next saturday if the charts can be believed. ECM backed down a little on the same time frame. Both sets of models show it turning nice and cold sunday night onwards, with a real cold couple of days monday and tuesday. Will be welcome from all this rain weve been bombarded with lately.

Min

snaps wrote: »

Pub run charts provided some good runs (GFS this time) especially for next weekend! Some real cold weather from next saturday if the charts can be believed. ECM backed down a little on the same time frame. Both sets of models show it turning nice and cold sunday night onwards, with a real cold couple of days monday and tuesday. Will be welcome from all this rain weve been bombarded with lately.

Yeah the 0h GFS run shows from about Monday a real push of cold air coming from the north east into Scandinavia, which progresses towards our region next weekend.

Trotter

MT's forecast doesnt seems to consider the cold snap to be overly significant. There's been a tail off in enthusiasm here too for the last few GFS runs so I wonder if once again what appeared to be a one in 2/3+ year event will result in some frost.

maquiladora

Trotter wrote: »

MT's forecast doesnt seems to consider the cold snap to be overly significant. There's been a tail off in enthusiasm here too for the last few GFS runs so I wonder if once again what appeared to be a one in 2/3+ year event will result in some frost.

The thing is all the interesting stuff is stuff out in FI, so it keeps changing from run to run and model to model and even in the medium term there are changes/differences that have a big impact on what happens a few days later.

Nothing worth getting excited about because its too distant still and you'd always bet on downgrades rather than upgrades!

Enjoyable chart watching though.

Speak Now

A cold week ahead for the last week in November none the less, well below average temps.

Jaffusmaximus

maquiladora wrote: »

The thing is all the interesting stuff is stuff out in FI, so it keeps changing from run to run and model to model and even in the medium term there are changes/differences that have a big impact on what happens a few days later.

Nothing worth getting excited about because its too distant still and you'd always bet on downgrades rather than upgrades!

Enjoyable chart watching though.

Im really enjoying watching the charts evolve this year. I would hope to see them peak favourably later this month then to premachartulate and turn into another damp squib winter.

derekon

I don't have much snow confidence in the upcoming cold spell - for one simple reason. MT does not see much in it. Simple as. He has not let us down so far. However, nice to see a cold week ahead

That said, the pattern might now be evolving for further down the road in winter 2012/2013 so as its not even the 1st December, we have to have confidence it will snow

catch.23

derekon wrote: »

I don't have much snow confidence in the upcoming cold spell - for one simple reason. MT does not see much in it. Simple as. He has not let us down so far. However, nice to see a cold week ahead

That said, the pattern might now be evolving for further down the road in winter 2012/2013 so as its not even the 1st December, we have to have confidence it will snow

Much as I like his forecasts, neither he nor any other forecaster is infallible!!!

Min

This is what Joe Bastardi sees happening for Europe and the US upto 2nd December. Predicted snow map.

Wolfe_IRE

RE: Ireland and Joe B's post. It looks like high ground/mountain snow to me in Wicklow/Dublin mountains and mountains of Kerry with perhaps a dusting to the levels stated by MT this morning.

maquiladora

Min wrote: »

This is what Joe Bastardi sees happening for Europe and the US upto 2nd December. Predicted snow map.

The thing about looking that far ahead (192 hours) is that its all changing by that stage every 6 hours as each new GFS run rolls out. That's from the 0Z run.

Here is the latest 06Z run. Big difference, barely a dusting in this region apart from the Scottish Highlands.



And after the 12Z in a few hours, it will look different again.

Redsunset

I respect Joe's knowledge and years of experience but he really does ramp when llooking into fantasy island. Bit of an attention seeker I reckon. All about revenue at the end of the day.

munsterlegend

Uk met office still think it will probably remain cold which can only be good for here:

UK Outlook for Sunday 9 Dec 2012 to Sunday 23 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. However, there are signs that northerly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are likely to continue, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow.

Updated: 1020 on Sat 24 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=regionalForecast

Deep Easterly

Still only 0c at Markee & Ballyhaise and not much higher at other stations:

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

Uk met office still think it will probably remain cold which can only be good for here:

UK Outlook for Sunday 9 Dec 2012 to Sunday 23 Dec 2012:

As is usual, there are uncertainties in the forecast for this period. However, there are signs that northerly winds may be quite frequent across the UK. So, on balance, colder than average conditions are likely to continue, with a risk of frost and fog, and an increased risk of some snow.

Updated: 1020 on Sat 24 Nov 2012

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=regionalForecast

Yes, i think it's safe to conclude that it will get colder, the questions is will the potential for even colder weather into December be realised. Mt maybe being cautious because he factored this potential into his winter forecast, but
is of the view it won't come to pass. although with su campu's recent comments about upstream conditions being less favourable for blocking as the winter goes on, it's hard to see major cold taking hold in February, particularly if we get a ssw event in mid december- which is possible due to the major blocking now occurring. if such an event takes place, the effects of it are usually seen 2- 3 weeks later.

BEASTERLY

A poor 00z ECM and 06z GFS for cold fans. This mornings UKMO is fantastic though @ 144hrs.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

BEASTERLY wrote: »

A poor 00z ECM and 06z GFS for cold fans. This mornings UKMO is fantastic though @ 144hrs.

It is a lovely run, going by the met office outlook too they seem to expect a decent cold spell.

Edit: Actually, anyone know why the 850 temps only go out to +72 on the UKMO ?

Elmer Blooker

BEASTERLY wrote: »

A poor 00z ECM and 06z GFS for cold fans. This mornings UKMO is fantastic though @ 144hrs.

very poor, the elephant in the room - the Azores high, not the strongest anticyclone but still there like a bad rash. :mad:

Musicman2000

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

very poor, the elephant in the room - the Azores high, not the strongest anticyclone but still there like a bad rash. :mad:

People, people its one run don't take it as gospel, as said before the models are still only getting to grips on the up coming cold spell ,anything past 192 hours don't even look at it, I can guarantee the 12z runs will be showing another outcome, I normally look at the 500mb anomaly charts and they haven't changed what so ever from the upcoming the cold spell. even the UK met havnt changed their outlook

UKMO go for cold & blocked into at least 10-15d based on MOGREPS-15 & EC Monthly. They say the 'wobbles' typical in this scenario

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Musicman2000 wrote: »

People, people its one run don't take it as gospel, as said before the models are still only getting to grips on the up coming cold spell ,anything past 192 hours don't even look at it, I can guarantee the 12z runs will be showing another outcome, I normally look at the 500mb anomaly charts and they haven't changed what so ever from the upcoming the cold spell. even the UK met havnt changed their outlook

UKMO go for cold & blocked into at least 10-15d based on MOGREPS-15 & EC Monthly. They say the 'wobbles' typical in this scenario

I have a feeling we could see upgrades on the models this weekend, just a gut, no basis on any fact !

Wolfe_IRE

snow reported at finner in Donegal at 2pm.
FINNER DONEGAL(A) E 07 SNOW SHOWER 3 100 Trace 1010

snaps

nacho libre wrote: »

Yes, i think it's safe to conclude that it will get colder, the questions is will the potential for even colder weather into December be realised. Mt maybe being cautious because he factored this potential into his winter forecast, but
is of the view it won't come to pass. although with su campu's recent comments about upstream conditions being less favourable for blocking as the winter goes on, it's hard to see major cold taking hold in February, particularly if we get a ssw event in mid december- which is possible due to the major blocking now occurring. if such an event takes place, the effects of it are usually seen 2- 3 weeks later.

Welcome back to the weather Nacho. Its all up in the air like you say with the blocking. I'll take days like today with no problem. Frosty start, sunshine and cold here in the west. hasn't broken 3c today.

zidewayz

Apologies if this is not the correct place for this post as I did not want to create a whole new thread based on one or two questions someone can explain quikly.

While being a frequent reader of this forum over the last three years I decided to purchase an OREGON SCIENTIFIC WMR88. Looking forward on monitoring this station over the next three months hopefully throughout a very snowy and chilly winter.

This question is more related to topography and the flow of hot/cold air. On the way to work this morn the station was reading of 1.3 °C (Rathcoole). The following met stations N81 Tallaght was 2.0 °C, Casement was 1.0 °C, Dublin AP -2.0 °C. What is the reason for this warming trend towards hills and cooling towards low lying inland areas. Would I be correct in saying the cold air is pooling in certain areas and escaping near hills.

Deep Easterly

Still only 1.0c at Ballyhaise & Markee on 3pm reports and 3.0c or below at a number of other stations. Other reports:


From Met.ie

If these temps don't rise considerably before midnight we could be looking at the coolest IMT daily max since the 2nd Feb, which had a mean max of just 3.4c.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Eyes down for the 12z !