Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Su Campu

zidewayz wrote: »

Apologies if this is not the correct place for this post as I did not want to create a whole new thread based on one or two questions someone can explain quikly.

While being a frequent reader of this forum over the last three years I decided to purchase an OREGON SCIENTIFIC WMR88. Looking forward on monitoring this station over the next three months hopefully throughout a very snowy and chilly winter.

This question is more related to topography and the flow of hot/cold air. On the way to work this morn the station was reading of 1.3 °C (Rathcoole). The following met stations N81 Tallaght was 2.0 °C, Casement was 1.0 °C, Dublin AP -2.0 °C. What is the reason for this warming trend towards hills and cooling towards low lying inland areas. Would I be correct in saying the cold air is pooling in certain areas and escaping near hills.

Yes. Frost hollows. I drive from Celbridge to the N7 every morning and on clear mornings there can be a 5 degree rise in temp as I approach Casement, which is only around 30m higher than home. Hard frost or fog can turn to green and clear in the space of a mile.

Tindie

I just clad it going to be cold next week, the well it something, still improvement on last year lol

snaps

Glorious red sky tonight here. Not far off a frost. 1.6c.

leahyl

Bloody freezing in Cork City this evening - that raw cold, brrrrr!

Wolfe_IRE

The most likely source of any deep cold over the next ten days will be from a northerly source i feel. In the meantime, there is a small risk of some some low level wet snow in inland west ulster munster and connacht as a result of an Atlantic system coming up against colder air next Thursday.

TheMilkyPirate

GFS sh!te but a mess, UKMO good. UKMO +144



Let's see if the ECM follows the UKMO later.

hotwhiskey

snaps wrote: »

Glorious red sky tonight here. Not far off a frost. 1.6c.

Phone does not do the pic justice best sunset i have seen in a while. 1c here all day sign of things to come hopefully.

[IMG][/img]

Su Campu

Max of only 1.4 °C at Ballyhaise today.

Musicman2000

Ecm 12z run more in line with the UKMO at last, the GFS is out on its own.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Ecm 12z run more in line with the UKMO at last, the GFS is out on its own.

I wonder will the GFS start to side with them, might happen on the 12z tomorrow

Eastcoastryan

t|nt|n wrote: »

I wonder will the GFS start to side with them, might happen on the 12z tomorrow

With a bit of luck!

God this place is quiet these days! Hopefully a bit of wintry weather will liven things up a bit.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

With a bit of luck!

God this place is quiet these days! Hopefully a bit of wintry weather will liven things up a bit.

I think people here have been bitten too many times ! When we see something in the reliable timeframe boards will implode

Harps

GFS and ECMWF look extremely similar to me, even out to 192h

Looks like a cold, calm and dry week ahead for the most part, pretty much what's been hinted at all week

snaps

cold and dry is good for me.

Calibos

Was it the same in 2010. ie did the GFS always want to spoil the party somewhat while the UKMO and ECM held hands? Did the GFS verify at any point that year?

Do I need to start powering up my 100 megaton warhead so that I can sink the IOM to the bottom of the sea to rid ourselves of that pesky shadow once and for all??!!

Eastcoastryan

I remember the IOM Shadow in 2010.. I was living in Bray at the time. I was on the Killarney Road and we got alot of snow, a friend of mine in Woodbrook got a good bit less. I am now living in Newcastle, hopefully moving a few miles south will make sure I'm on the right side of the IOM Shadow this winter!

Incidentally, I had a look back over some of the threads before the 2010 cold snap, there were some model wobbles beforehand too but I think things were on less of a knifedge then! There was alot of ramping! I've really enjoyed the past week or two.. hopefully we get something!!

Calibos wrote: »

Was it the same in 2010. ie did the GFS always want to spoil the party somewhat while the UKMO and ECM held hands? Did the GFS verify at any point that year?

Do I need to start powering up my 100 megaton warhead so that I can sink the IOM to the bottom of the sea to rid ourselves of that pesky shadow once and for all??!!

rickdangerouss

Been reading both this forum and netweather, the Stratosphere thread over on netweather has cool off on the idea of any long term blocking till Jan 13 at least, that brings snow to Ireland. I have joined the crew on the near miss ship, looks like SU and MT will be correct. Hope I am wrong.

"From then through to the end of next weekend, a very cold and blustery, northerly flow will take hold once more. Wintry showers will occur, mainly in the north and west, and there will be sunshine at times."

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Deep Easterly

Roll on a good old fashioned decent stormy spell.

pauldry

No it certainly doesnt look as promising now for snow lovers but the dry and cold may just bring a little wintry stuff before the end of next week... briefly though coz it now looks like no blocking will take place and mundane Atlantic returns for early December.:rolleyes:

Eastcoastryan

pauldry wrote: »

No it certainly doesnt look as promising now for snow lovers but the dry and cold may just bring a little wintry stuff before the end of next week... briefly though coz it now looks like no blocking will take place and mundane Atlantic returns for early December.:rolleyes:

This is what confuses me... From what I can see, there is more likely to be a blocked pattern, I agree it doesn't mean that there will be snow but from what I am reading, it looks like the Atlantic is kept at bay. I'm only a newbie though so I could be totally wrong!!

Calibos

Pauldry must be putting more stock in the recent GFS runs than most. The ECM and UKMO are in general agreement I heard and they are still maintaining the block well into December

ninebeanrows

Wonder if there could be some snow on Lugnaquilla tonight?

Dublin Airport is 4/3c with Light Rain and 850hPa temps are below 0c

munsterlegend

Calibos wrote: »

Pauldry must be putting more stock in the recent GFS runs than most. The ECM and UKMO are in general agreement I heard and they are still maintaining the block well into December

That's my reading of it as well though as ever nothing is certain. The met office in the uk also believe it will continue cold whatever that means for us.

Jaffusmaximus

Calibos wrote: »

Pauldry must be putting more stock in the recent GFS runs than most. The ECM and UKMO are in general agreement I heard and they are still maintaining the block well into December

The GFS model seems to be struggling to keep up with the colder than normal set up compared to the UKMO and ECM models. I witnessed an outbreak of crap slinging by posters on Netweather when the GFS suddenly wiped out all the gains of the last few days compared to UKMO and ECM. They all seem to be aligning to towards a more cold favorable outlook and so the crap slinging has decreased. My advice is follow the arguments as is when the are at maximum things ain't working out but when there is a more favorable outlook they taper off.

Willie Stroker 1976

As our chances of snow anytime soon are decreasing and there will be no blocking, does this mean the cold weather now may return to mild also? Only new here and trying to pick up on the charts etc. as best i can

Su Campu

Weathercheck wrote: »

Wonder if there could be some snow on Lugnaquilla tonight?

Dublin Airport is 4/3c with Light Rain and 850hPa temps are below 0c

I reckon snow above 700 m, so even Kippure might get a dusting

zidewayz

Weathercheck wrote: »

Wonder if there could be some snow on Lugnaquilla tonight?

Dublin Airport is 4/3c with Light Rain and 850hPa temps are below 0c

I would expect snow to on lug tonight and even Kippure.

I always view these before heading out for a hike.

http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Lugnaquilla/forecasts/925

http://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Kippure/forecasts/757

ZX7R

Willie Stroker 1976 wrote: »

As our chances of snow anytime soon are decreasing and there will be no blocking, does this mean the cold weather now may return to mild also? Only new here and trying to pick up on the charts etc. as best i can

Most of the chart seem to be keeping the cold weather till at least the second week in December,and another colder blast towards the end of December, this doesn't mean wide spread snow but defiantly hard frosts and possible wintry showers ,better than last year ,looks like it will be a smiler winter to 09/10 i think.
welcome to the winter madness:pac:

maquiladora

Wouldn't be feeling too confident or excited about any meaningful cold spell based on today's models.

ZX7R

There may not be much in the way of -8 uppers on the charts but there is still plenty of cold in them ,maybe the pup run will be better