Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Nabber

Looking go so far for winter

Winter has yet to begin and we should see a nice cold pool build up in Scandi.
We have to take the positives before the negatives this early in the season. Come February if we have had no snow and things look bad, then we can all have a good moan

This is the GFS and the far reaches of FI. Bu if we do get a cold build up in Scandi, then have our break down in the block for a week or so, then if this comes around we should be good for something more 'interesting'

A whole lot ifs. But if weather was predicted accurately, then it would be pretty boring.

maquiladora

ZX7R wrote: »

There may not be much in the way of -8 uppers on the charts but there is still plenty of cold in them ,maybe the pup run will be better

Hah, that should be a new nickname for the pub run when it isn't good.

18Z (pub run) has come and gone.

ZX7R

maquiladora wrote: »

Hah, that should be a new nickname for the pub run when it isn't good.

18Z (pub run) has come and gone.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukm...ch=6&archive=0

They haven't fully uploaded the18z(pup/ PUB runs) on some of the models so i was looking at earlier runs Sorry didn't know they were all ready out:o

davidsr20

maquiladora wrote: »

Wouldn't be feeling too confident or excited about any meaningful cold spell based on today's models.

Thanks for bursting our bubble ;( so many mixed opinions its hard to know where to turn

maquiladora

ZX7R wrote: »

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ukm...ch=6&archive=0

They haven't fully uploaded the18z(pup/ PUB runs) on some of the models so i was looking at earlier runs Sorry didn't know they were all ready out:o

There is no 18Z for the UKMO. Next runs will be the 0Z's in the early hours. The UKMO does show the best chance at a more interesting cold spell at 144 so that will be one to look at the in the morning to see how it compares to the rest.

maquiladora

davidsr20 wrote: »

Thanks for bursting our bubble ;( so many mixed opinions its hard to know where to turn

There's no need to be depressed. Winter hasn't even started yet. Long way to go.

ZX7R

maquiladora wrote: »

There is no 18Z for the UKMO. Next runs will be the 0Z's in the early hours. The UKMO does show the best chance at a more interesting cold spell at 144 so that will be one to look at the in the morning to see how it compares to the rest.

I under stand thanks, i was looking at the gefs ensembles when i was talking about the 18z;) ,i also use the charts on www.weathrweb.net,is there any other good sights that have good model charts you could recommend,
Thanks

BLIZZARD7

In my opinion we are moving closer to better blocking now, UKMO is what the professionals over in the UK met office are going with as their fax charts at +96hrs and +120hrs are identical to the UKMO raw output. Id say this cold spell will get better by the end of the week/start of the next week with showers becoming more frequently of snow in the east/north in a North-Easterly wind. I then expect further reloads as we go through December with the atlantic trying to get in and then getting pushed back. Remember- without an organised polar vortex we arent going to have warm zonal weather for weeks on end, its just not going to happen.

Maybe im wrong but people are way to negative in here tonight, the charts are exceptional and extremely rare for this time of year- see how many examples of an Arctic high and split vortex you can find in the archives for the end of November/start of December...


Im expecting upgrades over the next few days.





Dan

Harps

ZX7R wrote: »

I under stand thanks, i was looking at the gefs ensembles when i was talking about the 18z;) ,i also use the charts on www.weathrweb.net,is there any other good sights that have good model charts you could recommend,
Thanks

weatheronline has a great selection of models and parameters and a few good hi-res models, you can play around with the different options in the panel on the left


The 18z GFS keeps up the trend of the past few days for a cold week with a chance of some wintry showers, while nothing particularly interesting I'll gladly take a few cold and dry days after the nearly constant rain all month

pauldry

Just all looks a bit messy to me at the minute thats why I cant see blocking.

Dont think it will be very mild for the next 3 weeks though. I would say it will be around 4 to 8c most days and 0c most nights. This could bring some snow but likely rain if Atlantic is involved at all.

Need a stronger Northeaster and even this wont guarantee snow. I remember 2010 there was a few really cold days and it actually rained a bit in between the snowy bits. NW winds will bring wintry showers of hail sleet graupel maybe snow at night.

One positive thing is this mess of charts could bring something like that. I agree I am looking at the GFS. I usually look at that one most. However there is too much instability to be sure of blocking ...yet!

doccy

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Maybe im wrong but people are way to negative in here tonight, the charts are exceptional and extremely rare for this time of year- see how many examples of an Arctic high and split vortex you can find in the archives for the end of November/start of December...

I agree. I think a lot of people are in for a shock after last years disappointment. The models are chopping and changing, but the common theme is cold.

BLIZZARD7

pauldry wrote: »

Just all looks a bit messy to me at the minute thats why I cant see blocking.

Dont think it will be very mild for the next 3 weeks though. I would say it will be around 4 to 8c most days and 0c most nights. This could bring some snow but likely rain if Atlantic is involved at all.

Need a stronger Northeaster and even this wont guarantee snow. I remember 2010 there was a few really cold days and it actually rained a bit in between the snowy bits. NW winds will bring wintry showers of hail sleet graupel maybe snow at night.

One positive thing is this mess of charts could bring something like that. I agree I am looking at the GFS. I usually look at that one most. However there is too much instability to be sure of blocking ...yet!

Well thats your mistake there- the GFS should be largely ignored when its showing different output with strange shortwaves all over the gaf compared to the ECM and UKMO at +96hours- Especially when the UK met support their own model. The GFS could be right- But I highly doubt it to be honest...





Dan

Willie Stroker 1976

ZX7R wrote: »

Most of the chart seem to be keeping the cold weather till at least the second week in December,and another colder blast towards the end of December, this doesn't mean wide spread snow but defiantly hard frosts and possible wintry showers ,better than last year ,looks like it will be a smiler winter to 09/10 i think.
welcome to the winter madness:pac:

Cheers mate, been reading this thread casually over the past few months, but with winter here now im trying to get a better understanding of the charts etc. but hey Rome wasnt built in a day, il get there cheers again

ninebeanrows

Good UKM/GFS

Poor latter stages of the ECM with signs of a quick enough breakdown.

mickger844posts

Weathercheck wrote: »

Good UKM/GFS

Poor latter stages of the ECM with signs of a quick enough breakdown.

Slightly worrying to see the ECM breakdown. Things were a bit more positive this time yesterday. 12z looks like a vital run.

BLIZZARD7

Weathercheck wrote: »

Good UKM/GFS

Poor latter stages of the ECM with signs of a quick enough breakdown.

Yep UKMO is almost perfect, ECM lets too much energy head towards us from that low just to the west of the tip of greenland, meaning low pressure and milder air come in over us.

It all depends on the postion of that low over southern scandi/germany area, the further south we can get it the better as it means the arctic high can come further south and less energy will reach our shores from the atlantic.

Im not too worried about any potential breakdown after +168hrs as we have seen changes in the +72hrs to +96hrs range this morning, meaning FI is very close and things WILL change in any output shown now for after +120hrs...

Due to the models usually underestimating the strength of blocks, I expect further upgrades.

All in all better runs this morning with the GFS trending towards the UKMO solution and the ECM just having a wobble hopefully.

Stratosphere looks like its in for a warming too with mean zonal winds decreasing also, this can only be good for our chances of continued/renewed Northern Blocking as we head through december.



Dan

maquiladora

Models are a far cry what the interesting stuff they were showing a few days ago. We've gone from FI showing superb blocking, an easterly airflow with proper cold air spilling over us to...a race against time and shortwaves to get maybe 48 hours worth of less colder, northerly air before the rapidly weakening block leads to mild air sweeping back in.

What happens beyond that then is FI, and just as useless as FI was a few days ago. Thats why its FI. :pac:

The good news is, its only the start of winter & hopefully we'll get another shot at seeing some truly interesting charts again.

BLIZZARD7

maquiladora wrote: »

Models are a far cry what the interesting stuff they were showing a few days ago. We've gone from FI showing superb blocking, an easterly airflow with proper cold air spilling over us to...a race against time and shortwaves to get maybe 48 hours worth of less colder, northerly air before the rapidly weakening block leads to mild air sweeping back in.

What happens beyond that then is FI, and just as useless as FI was a few days ago. Thats why its FI. :pac:

The good news is, its only the start of winter & hopefully we'll get another shot at seeing some truly interesting charts again.

I honestly dont know what charts you are looking at, maybe post some so I can see where you are coming from??!? The atlantic is not coming racing in anywhere near us after +48 hours of cold on any model?!





Dan

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Models are a far cry what the interesting stuff they were showing a few days ago. We've gone from FI showing superb blocking, an easterly airflow with proper cold air spilling over us to...a race against time and shortwaves to get maybe 48 hours worth of less colder, northerly air before the rapidly weakening block leads to mild air sweeping back in.

What happens beyond that then is FI, and just as useless as FI was a few days ago. Thats why its FI. :pac:

The good news is, its only the start of winter & hopefully we'll get another shot at seeing some truly interesting charts again.

Met Eireann outlook while cold is not particularly wintry! Well used to downgrades in this part of the word but still a lot of uncertainty longer term as alluded to by MT. The Ukmo model is very positive by all accounts and the uk met office outlook is still for colder weather.

pauldry

Met Eireann now going 6 to 9c and 5 to 8c this week.

Snow looks pretty unlikely now.

Wait now until we see what next weekend brings or early December but cool rather than cold for this week.

NW winds are a curse really. Any wind with W in it wont bring a lot of snow unless its streaming down from Greenland!!

Trotter

I wish somehow I could block the charts on my PC beyond +96. I do this to myself far too much. Every time I think.. Nah this is so well set up that it has to happen. Its much better than you could ever expect and with the charts all showing the same thing, its best to go get tinned food.


And then we eat the 150 tins of beans looking at the rain. :P

derekon

pauldry wrote: »

Met Eireann now going 6 to 9c and 5 to 8c this week.

Snow looks pretty unlikely now.

Wait now until we see what next weekend brings or early December but cool rather than cold for this week.

NW winds are a curse really. Any wind with W in it wont bring a lot of snow unless its streaming down from Greenland!!

Could not agree more Pauldry - we need the words "east" and "north" to have a decent chance of snow in Ireland. When I hear the word "Atlantic" mixed with "snow" , inevitably its of the wet sleety variety!

However everyone should all remember that we are one week away from the start of the meteorological winter here in Ireland, so buckets of time! Its not the start of February!

D

Wolfe_IRE

For the past 10 days or so, nothing other than 4-8c daytime and night time frosts with largely settled conditions has been forecast for next week.

A whole host of forecasters, UK-based in particular, have been misinforming the masses about -20c and the beginning of 2 months of snowfall from the last week of November. This has never been suggested by the models nor is it suggested now. This hypecasting has raised expectations amongst those who want snow and therefore these same people feel let down when FI charts change to a milder setup.

There remains significant potential for our weather to turn even colder and more wintry during December. The models are trending for a continuation of the coming week's cool/relatively dry but frosty at night conditions. All we need is to watch for correlation between models in the post 120hrs period i.e. not favour one model over another and hope all will follow suit.

And one more thing...can we keep this thread to model analysis and keep the flufftalk like the comment above this to the hype thread or Bin

ZX7R

Weathercheck wrote: »

Wonder if there could be some snow on Lugnaquilla tonight?

Dublin Airport is 4/3c with Light Rain and 850hPa temps are below 0c

Some snow on some of the wicklow mountains saw when out for a walk this morning don't know if its lugnaquilla ,the line of lying snow looks low also

andrioolis

don't know wich model are they using but there'a a 5 day visual forcast, uunfortunately thats in russian/lithuanian language

http://www.gismeteo.lt/map/557/

Su Campu

Again Finner's reporting a snow shower at 1200 but with a visibility of just 300 m and temperature and dewpoint of +1.0 °C it's instrument error.

201211251200 AAXX 25121 03978 17103 /0902 10010 20010 39975 40019 53006 69901 78587 87///
333 84/01 87/31=

snaps

I know its more FI, but GFS putting some stunning charts out for end of next week (6th December onwards) after a brief return to the Atlantic for a couple of days. Some real cold coming down from Scandinavia.

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

If these temps don't rise considerably before midnight we could be looking at the coolest IMT daily max since the 2nd Feb, which had a mean max of just 3.4c.

IMT mean max yesterday turned out to be 4.0c, which would make it the 2nd coolest maxima of the year so far, after the 3.4c on 2nd February last.

On an individual station basis though, the 2.6c daily max at Claremorris yesterday was lower than any daily max this station recorded last winter :eek:. We have to go all the way back to the 3rd Jan 2011 to find a lower daily value recorded here (2.1c).

Back to today, and still only 1.0c at Claremorris, Knock & Mt. Dillon on the 1pm reports.

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

catch.23

Anyway, I tend to agree with maquiladora here, the potential for any sort of unusual event seems to be slipping away from us, hope the UKMO has the right end of the stick this time!


12z will be crucial today wrt the ECM.

Musicman2000

Lads in fairness Met Eireann are not going to start screaming snow until a few days out let alone next weekend which is a long way off, let the cold build up and go from there I'm sure there will be some good undercutting scenarios as MT has stated.