Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

munsterlegend

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

UK Outlook for Tuesday 11 Dec 2012 to Thursday 20 Dec 2012:

Cold weather is likely to continue during the middle of December, with temperatures generally significantly colder than normal for the time of year. Most areas should see plenty of fine, dry and sunny weather, although there is a risk of wintry showers. These are most likely to affect eastern areas at first, but they could become more widespread later in the forecast period, potentially reaching all parts of the UK. There will be widespread overnight frosts, and with these there is a risk of ice forming, especially around showers. There is also a risk of freezing fog forming in some places. Although the UK outlook is for generally cold conditions to dominate, there are some indications of milder, wetter weather affecting some western and southwestern areas at times.

Updated: 1131 on Thu 6 Dec 2012

Looks a positive outlook and hopefully will extend west.

Larbre34

munsterlegend wrote: »

New from UKMO:
" 4. Trend for Days 10-15 : Probably staying colder than normal with frequent overnight frosts and some wintry ppn, especially in the N and E. Potential for some milder, wetter interludes in the W/SW.
5. Discussion : After days of prevarication with SW types, the GM has now come into line with all other models (and their ensembles) with the transition to an easterly. The ensemble mean (see fig 1 below) is a good a guide as any, and shows the progression from a cyclonic NE to a cyclonic SE. In the trend period Atlantic systems will push against the block, but getting this detail right will be very difficult."

As ever on a knife edge for Ireland. this update for our neighbours does not indicate anything severe but still time for upgrades.

im not so sure, i think theyre covering their asses so not to alarm and get the tabloids into a frenzy but what theyve said allows them the option to issue severe alerts at -48 or so if required. thats a big hint at battleground as well which could give central Britain some very severe but short lived wintry weather, knife edge indeed for us but that extra few hundred miles could leave us outside the tent looking in once again

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Apologies if this was poeted already but Met Eireann update from today @ 11:01

Next week will be extremely cold with east or northeast winds and day time temperatures of between 2 and 5 degrees. Night time values will drop as low as -5 or - 6 degrees. There'll be widespread frost, fog and icy stretches at night and each morning. Monday and Tuesday will be dry and bright. From Wednesday onwards there'll be an increasing risk of wintry showers of sleet or snow near east and north coasts.

ZX7R

Sioman keeling has some interesting views on his video today,don't know how to post video ,www.weatherweb.net

Deank

ZX7R wrote: »

Sioman keeling has some interesting views on his video today,don't know how to post video ,www.weatherweb.net

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L62WDqmytBc

That Met update doesn't seem to forecast anything different to what we have now.

DOCARCH

Deleted User wrote: »

That Met update doesn't seem to forecast anything different to what we have now.

A bit different to what we have now?

Next week will be extremely cold with east or northeast winds and day time temperatures of between 2 and 5 degrees. Night time values will drop as low as -5 or - 6 degrees. There'll be widespread frost, fog and icy stretches at night and each morning. Monday and Tuesday will be dry and bright. From Wednesday onwards there'll be an increasing risk of wintry showers of sleet or snow near east and north coasts.

As stated before, just don't expect cold spell like 2010.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

The northwest in with a chance !

DOCARCH

Just to add. One main difference between what we have now and what, potentially, we might have next week is simply a different air source which is much more conducive for snow...basically.

Speak Now

Still nothing cast in stone!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Still nothing cast in stone!

Pretty tight cluster out to the 15th though

maquiladora

12Z runs today should be really interesting.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z runs today should be really interesting.

They should, I bought a spare F5 button

Any ideas what time the NAE updates on Weatheronline ?

maquiladora

t|nt|n wrote: »

They should, I bought a spare F5 button

Any ideas what time the NAE updates on Weatheronline ?

Starts about an hour before the GFS. 18Z is always slower though.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z runs today should be really interesting.

anything in particular we should be keeping a close eye on? or is it wait for the ensembles for a more likely overall scenario?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

munsterlegend wrote: »

anything in particular we should be keeping a close eye on? or is it wait for the ensembles for a more likely overall scenario?

We want to see the same but 6 hours earlier if you get me

Of course an upgrade would be nice !

leahyl

I never thought I would be excited about impending weather models

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

I never thought I would be excited about impending weather models

lets hope for unexpected upgrades like yesterday! I think today so far has been generally positive with the professionals also coming on board to a degree. no panic yet as a long way to go but just get the cold to these shores first and take it from there.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

And we are off

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

anything in particular we should be keeping a close eye on? or is it wait for the ensembles for a more likely overall scenario?

Would be nice to see colder air building to our east and then a nice straight flow bringing -8 or colder air over us with strong blocking hopefully heading up towards Greenland in FI instead of melting away.

El Ninotorres

What time do the models come out at?

BEASTERLY

Uh oh, things gone terribly pear shaped at t30, no way back to a cold solution from here, dont look unless you like Azores highs!

:pac:

Speak Now

El Ninotorres wrote: »

What time do the models come out at?

GFS rolling out now, usually takes 75 mins. UKMO also due. ECM will be half 6ish. All the 12z runs.

El Ninotorres

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

GFS rolling out now, usually takes 75 mins. UKMO also due. ECM will be half 6ish. All the 12z runs.

Cheers mate

Saganist

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Uh oh, things gone terribly pear shaped at t30, no way back to a cold solution from here, dont look unless you like Azores highs!

:pac:

Please tell me you are on the wind up.. :pac:

Sponge Bob

Only rolled out to 60 hours and no major change. Stoppit

Deank

Saganist wrote: »

Please tell me you are on the wind up.. :pac:

It's a total wind up:p

DOCARCH

DOCARCH wrote: »

A bit different to what we have now?

Next week will be extremely cold with east or northeast winds and day time temperatures of between 2 and 5 degrees. Night time values will drop as low as -5 or - 6 degrees. There'll be widespread frost, fog and icy stretches at night and each morning. Monday and Tuesday will be dry and bright. From Wednesday onwards there'll be an increasing risk of wintry showers of sleet or snow near east and north coasts.

As stated before, just don't expect cold spell like 2010.

It's currently 6 degrees here next to the sea, not a lot warmer than what's coming and we've had frost for the last few nights and freezing rain this morning. But for the rain there'd still be front on the ground from yesterday morning. Maybe Dublin is far warmer than here.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Cold uppers reach us about 6 hours faster on this run

maquiladora

Ridge looks a bit stronger at 90 hours. Some changes here and there, too early to tell if they are for better or worse though.

Looking better than the 06Z by 108.