Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

DOCARCH

El Ninotorres wrote: »

What time do the models come out at?

....now! Here ya go.

http://youtu.be/C-cqUj99zMI

Sorry, couldn't resist!

Sponge Bob

12z and 6z runs compared no major change at all.

BEASTERLY

Twas a windup. :P In reality, @ t108 the block is slightly further west, cleaner source of cold air resulting in the cold air arriving faster but also much colder air to our northeast. Looking forward to the rest of the frames. Obviously these details are not worth agonizing over this far out, but it's fun!

maquiladora

Big difference with that low south of Greenland at 114 hours.

Colder but drier here at 120.

BEASTERLY

Just to illustrate the improvement in temps @ the 850hpa level. 6z v 12z

6z:


12z:


Containing my excitement is becoming a desperate stuggle, I promised myself I'll wait 2 more days!

leahyl

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Just to illustrate the improvement in temps @ the 850hpa level. 6z v 12z
.....................

Containing my excitement is becoming a desperate stuggle, I promised myself I'll wait 2 more days!

Exxxxcellllent *rubs hands together

Larbre34

Remarkable fixing of the trend for this remove. Even UK met have gone for a bit of a ramp themselves on their 15 and 30 day outlooks!

maquiladora

144...oh dear. This could all be over very quickly.

BEASTERLY

The block does look more fragile around the t144 mark. Big changes in what would normally be the reliable timeframe.

CrimsonSunrise

Looking good! We really need the 850 temps to be -8c or -10c right across the country if we want snowfall from an easterly. And us down south would need some interaction between lows to the south with the easterly air mass for some decent snowfall. It's a longshot! Come on the upgrades!

hotwhiskey

Limbo that's were we are! (cold and frosty)

Rebelbrowser

CrimsonSunrise wrote: »

Looking good! We really need the 850 temps to be -8c or -10c right across the country if we want snowfall from an easterly. And us down south would need some interaction between lows to the south with the easterly air mass for some decent snowfall. It's a longshot! Come on the upgrades!

Very parochial point but we can get streamers in Cork from a south easterly as Cork is essentially the east coast (if you know what I mean) for winds from that direction.

maquiladora

A few cold, dry days with a very slack northeasterly and then the ridge vanishes and it's milder, wet stuff coming back in. Much more realistic compared to what was shown yesterday

Starting to look very poor but its a huge change from the 06Z so too early to say for sure yet.

whitebriar

I'm not sure I'd like this evenings 12z gfs solution.
Colder 850 temps are good,but being stuck in a sort of col (no wind) is not so good.

Waiting for a dogs dinner from the ecm now.

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

A few cold, dry days with a very slack northeasterly and then the ridge vanishes and it's milder, wet stuff coming back in. Much more realistic compared to what was shown yesterday

Starting to look very poor but its a huge change from the 06Z so too early to say for sure yet.

OMG seriously? That's disappointing but not unexpected I guess

Redsunset

Cold ends before it really starts. If Ecm picks this up then it's game over, ball burst for now.

MUSEIST

The whole high pressure block is orientated further north and reaches as far as greenland. Unfortunately this lets the atlantic back in for us but only slight changes to this (slight push south of the western flank of the high) could be excellent for us IMO or more likely it will be a pile of tosh.

BEASTERLY

maquiladora wrote: »

A few cold, dry days with a very slack northeasterly and then the ridge vanishes and it's milder, wet stuff coming back in. Much more realistic compared to what was shown yesterday

Starting to look very poor but its a huge change from the 06Z so too early to say for sure yet.

I wouldn't say it's 'starting to look very poor', one op run showing a breakdown outside of the current reliable timeframe? If anything it's an upgrade in terms of temps up to 144 anyway! Things go wrong after that though.

maquiladora

GFS FI = The Nightmare Before Christmas.

Nice charts if you're looking for flooding.

BEASTERLY

UKMO very similar to GFS at 144...:(

maquiladora

BEASTERLY wrote: »

I wouldn't say it's 'starting to look very poor', one op run showing a breakdown outside of the current reliable timeframe? If anything it's an upgrade in terms of temps up to 144 anyway! Things go wrong after that though.

UKMO at 144 looks similar though, except maybe even a bit worse.

We'll have to see what the ECM holds, but yeah at the moment things aren't looking too good.

whitebriar

Its probably timely to stick in a post here that this gfs is not what's going to happen,no more than the last 2 ecm's are.

Truth being told,the weather is trumping the models ,but do you know I think the met service professionals are confident using intuition alone that something very cold is coming,as am I

Pointless talking about Extreme FI breakdowns when we can't be sure of nearer term details at this stage

For sure there will be a return of atlantic weather,there has to be,it's nature.

munsterlegend

At least the downgrades are happening now as opposed to in the reliable timeframe!
The experts have advised that teleconnections do not support any long lasting mild incursions but they were possible on occasions.

Speak Now

Cold getting colder, wouldnt be to bothered comparing yesterdays FI to todays FI.

Still T120 before the cold uppers hit the east coast.

Wouldnt panic about the Atlantic attack in low resolution.

Yes the East flow has slackened but it could only be downgrades after yesterday evenings charts and still far enough out to upgrade again

Anyone pulling hair out after each run because it's not showing snowfall in their area yet will be to exhausted to enjoy the snow by the time it finally arrives

John.Icy

UKMO +144 is far from a poor chart? Big block, undercutting, ridging stretching eastwards towards greenland.....

Also GFS is grand in the reliable timeframe?? If your calling game over based on the stupidly overplayed low in FI then you've been on the crazy beans.

Calm down people, just because the raging easterly of the ECM the other day aren't still there(kinda obvious they wouldn't be) doesn't mean it's game over. And the notion that we were even guaranteed a long cold spell was never hugely on the cards, other than the rogue ECM and GFS there's always been subtle hints of the Atlantic stirring in far FI.

But FI is just that at the moment, fantasy. Let's get the cold and the blocking in place, then see what happens. The orientation if the high will change plenty in the next few runs, a nudge south, and hello beasterly and high potential for a longer cold spell, a nudge north, we risk the Atlantic approaching. So finely balanced. Give it a few runs before getting down.

Speak Now

NOGAPS all the way, on a one horse open sleigh

Musicman2000

John.Icy wrote: »

UKMO +144 is far from a poor chart? Big block, undercutting, ridging stretching eastwards towards greenland.....

Also GFS is grand in the reliable timeframe?? If your calling game over based on the stupidly overplayed low in FI then you've been on the crazy beans.

Calm down people, just because the raging easterly of the ECM the other day aren't still there(kinda obvious they wouldn't be) doesn't mean it's game over. And the notion that we were even guaranteed a long cold spell was never hugely on the cards, other than the rogue ECM and GFS there's always been subtle hints of the Atlantic stirring in far FI.

But FI is just that at the moment, fantasy. Let's get the cold and the blocking in place, then see what happens. The orientation if the high will change plenty in the next few runs, a nudge south, and hello beasterly and high potential for a longer cold spell, a nudge north, we risk the Atlantic approaching. So finely balanced. Give it a few runs before getting down.

Someone talks a bit of scene at last, some people on here never learn its as bad as net weather. Its one run from the GFS, FI is 144 hours, The gfs is more than likely over doing things as usual. Some one said the UKMO is a bad chart at 144hrs I must be going blind.

Wait for the the ECM 12z to come out and im sure some of you might change your minds again.

dacogawa

Netweather has a nice covering over the Wicklow mountains tonight, anyone think that's going to happen ?




Also the Cork Snow Shield looks like it's malfunctioning 177 hours out :rolleyes:

BEASTERLY

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Someone talks a bit of scene at last, some people on here never learn its as bad as net weather. Its one run from the GFS, FI is 144 hours, The gfs is more than likely over doing things as usual. Some one said the UKMO is a bad chart at 144hrs I must be going blind.

Wait for the the ECM 12z to come out and im sure some of you might change your minds again.

Regarding the UKMO, look at the hemispheric view, very similar to GFS only with lower heights to our north. It's bad because it looks like it would result in a breakdown like the GFS if rolled on from t144, probably even quicker. Not that im taking FI output seriously, but it cant be ignored either.

snowstreams

dacogawa wrote: »

Netweather has a nice covering over the Wicklow mountains tonight, anyone think that's going to happen ? ...

Here is a pic from the wicklow mtns earlier today, posted on the ramping thread!
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=82104920&postcount=580