Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

maquiladora

John.Icy wrote: »

UKMO +144 is far from a poor chart? Big block, undercutting, ridging stretching eastwards towards greenland.....

Also GFS is grand in the reliable timeframe?? If your calling game over based on the stupidly overplayed low in FI then you've been on the crazy beans.

Calm down people, just because the raging easterly of the ECM the other day aren't still there(kinda obvious they wouldn't be) doesn't mean it's game over. And the notion that we were even guaranteed a long cold spell was never hugely on the cards, other than the rogue ECM and GFS there's always been subtle hints of the Atlantic stirring in far FI.

But FI is just that at the moment, fantasy. Let's get the cold and the blocking in place, then see what happens. The orientation if the high will change plenty in the next few runs, a nudge south, and hello beasterly and high potential for a longer cold spell, a nudge north, we risk the Atlantic approaching. So finely balanced. Give it a few runs before getting down.

If you look at the evolution of the UKMO between 120 and 144 and then the GFS between 120 and 144, you can see roughly what would happen next on the UKMO.

It's certainly not game over yet, we still have the ECM to come and there are big changes on the GFS before 144 that could flip back on the 18Z, but still, at the moment things are trending in the opposite direction to what you'd want to see and since downgrades are always more common it's not what you'd want right now.

maquiladora

dacogawa wrote: »

Netweather has a nice covering over the Wicklow mountains tonight, anyone think that's going to happen ?

That's shows a 30-35% chance of precipitation being snow on the Wicklow mountains.

dacogawa

maquiladora wrote: »

That's shows a 30-35% chance of precipitation being snow on the Wicklow mountains.

Thanks, was just checking if anyone thinks it'll be cold enough to drop a load. I was just asking cause I re-installed my PC & haven't put all my links (weather stations, etc) back yet

John.Icy

maquiladora wrote: »

If you look at the evolution of the UKMO between 120 and 144 and then the GFS between 120 and 144, you can see roughly what would happen next on the UKMO.

It's certainly not game over yet, we still have the ECM to come and there are big changes on the GFS before 144 that could flip back on the 18Z, but still, at the moment things are trending in the opposite direction to what you'd want to see and since downgrades are always more common it's not what you'd want right now.

Things are so finely balanced on both GFS and UKMO though to be sure, of any outcome. Little shifts here and there before t120 would change everything. But yes, negative trending today, but too far out to fret over.

Speaking of potential outcomes, here's the GFS control run, what can happen if the high plays ball:

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-192.png?12

However, I do expect a stinker of an ECM past +144...but I don't believe it will turn out anything like what it shows. Focusing on 60-96hrs still. We might get nothing still at this stage.

Still, I see plenty of reasons to be happy enough today still.

Daniel2590

ECM coming out now:D

HellFireClub

Daniel2590 wrote: »

ECM coming out now:D

Where can I find the ECM?

Daniel2590

HellFireClub wrote: »

Where can I find the ECM?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

The ones with a blue button(?) beside them are the 12z, they're not all there yet.

maquiladora

ECM looks slightly worse than the GFS at 96 hours (weaker ridge, heights in Greenland not as good). It's the next frames that will be important though.

Daniel2590

+120h is looking decent

maquiladora

Better than the GFS at 144. No beasterly but it would be cold.

Cold but very slack at 168.

icesnowfrost

Lads everyone was getting very excited and now people are on a downer... Can these charts still not promise the east winds for some snow... Met eiranne are still going for it to be cold next week with the beast from the east and from Wednesday on a risk of snow to the east and north east

pistolpetes11

Im still happy with what I am seeing at the moment

BLIZZARD7

Dont know why people cant be happy at -8c or lower 850hpa temps over country at +144hrs

I think the real beast is about to come after +168hrs, might be wrong though.

Important thing is its excellent up to +120hrs.




Dan

DOCARCH

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Lads everyone was getting very excited and now people are on a downer... Can these charts still not promise the east winds for some snow... Met eiranne are still going for it to be cold next week with the beast from the east and from Wednesday on a risk of snow to the east and north east

Their forecast would be based on the last ECM run. Forecast might change slightly. Lastest run still keeps the cold but as stated above, winds are slack and from a more northerly.

maquiladora

ECM is cold out to 192 but about as slack as you can get. Into deep FI anyway now so doesn't matter beyond this.

BLIZZARD7

Strange evolution after +168hrs, doesnt look right. Still very cold though with uppers lower than -8c, no wind and probable snow cover. All of that will result in very low minima and sub zero max temps would be widespread. Any breakdown would be very interesting to say the least.

Important thing is its another bitter run and it brings the cold spell closer, also check out the ECM ensemble means, they show pressure moving east to west over the atlantic out in FI, so any potential breakdown is questionable at the moment.




Dan

derekon

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Im still happy with what I am seeing at the moment

I could not agree with you more Pistolpetes and I am not sure why people are down on the board this evening.

We are now approaching the reliable time frame and the 1800 ECM (easily the best model and the one favoured by Met Eireann) is showing upper temps of -8 over Ireland from this Tuesday - Saturday..........great!

D

Mr Cumulonimbus

maquiladora wrote: »

Better than the GFS at 144. No beasterly but it would be cold.

Cold but very slack at 168.

Yes, cold but slack. Bit of a northeasterly at +120 hrs and after that not much. No Irish sea streamers potential at +144 and beyond? Even the wind direction at +120 is no good for North Louth area. Mournes/Cooley snow shield will block everything. Just cold conditions for this model run but little snow?

maquiladora

If you like cold but don't care about snow then there's nothing to complain about on the ECM. Plenty of cold weather there, frost, ice etc. but we've gone from looking at an easterly to looking at a very slack northeasterly with much lower snowfall prospects. Looking more like a cold, dry spell at the moment. But of course that can change again in the morning.

A word of caution for anyone following this on UK forums like netweather. Remember that they are looking at it from primarily a south/east England point of view. We are way further west on the doorstep of the Atlantic. You could have an epic snowstorm in England with -8 uppers and -2 uppers over here and a lot of rain instead. But be careful of that.

JanuarySnowstor

Good point Maq, just been reading on here and it's like a different week lol
All my points on Netweather have been made here by ye guys.
Yes indeed Southeast UK is far from Ireland

Yesterday would have delivered for all
Saying that am very positive we get snow next week, the only doubt is how much and will the atlantic gain control soon after

whitebriar

DOCARCH wrote: »

Their forecast would be based on the last ECM run. Forecast might change slightly. Lastest run still keeps the cold but as stated above, winds are slack and from a more northerly.

That's true,always the ecm for them.
In fact,I listen to the 755 am forecast every morning and without fail it always mirrors the 0z ecm.
Incidentally, the flow is very similar in diection and slackness to and colder than Dec 21 to 24 2010,which reminds me was Dublin airport having any problems that week ?

ninebeanrows

The 168hr chart would not be dry, the Irish sea would be bubbling up convection with the ~20c temperature contrast in from the sea to 850hPa

force eleven

Desperately awaiting the MRAN model output...

whitebriar

Weathercheck wrote: »

The 168hr chart would not be dry, the Irish sea would be bubbling up convection with the ~20c temperature contrast in from the sea to 850hPa

Do ya know you are 100% correct there
Whilst what flow and what strength of cold we have ,we won't really have a handle on for a few days yet,tonights version of a potential solution,screams shallow low creations hugging Irish sea coasts like classic 1980s set ups.
In those episodes,it could snow all day in Dublin with no wind.

Actually that's what happened Xmas week 2010 too.

DOCARCH

whitebriar wrote: »

Actually that's what happened Xmas week 2010 too.

Your right. Just looked back on my records. Surprisingly little wind the week before Christmas 2010 but lots and lots of snow.

catch.23

I find it funny that when the GFS shows an upcoming cold spell and the ECM doesn't, most people say it won't verify. But when Its the other way around, people think the GFS is more likely to be right! :rolleyes:

Nabber

I thought the previous ECMF runs had a bad handle on the low system.
I see it has no drop south of GreenLand

Major downgrade. But if you didn't fall for the HYPE then you will still be happy.

96 hours is looking good. But I think this is subject to another downgrade. With Ireland missing out and maybe the East Uk getting something.

DOCARCH

Nabber wrote: »

But if you didn't fall for the HYPE then you will still be happy.

Exactly. I remain happy.

whitebriar

I don't get this downgrade/ upgrade nonsense, never did.
Does any serious model watcher at this stage seriously believe every run as gospel whether good or bad?
If that were the case,new model runs would only come out every 240 hrs..

So relax the kackz folks...
There's two trends developing,a strong cold spell next week,details yet to be nailed but its coming and 2nd potentially more into January if you follow mt craniums reasonably good indicative research OK? What more do ye want?

maquiladora

Pub run starting in 40 mins. It's usually an entertaining one.