Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Nabber

whitebriar wrote: »

I don't get this downgrade/ upgrade nonsense, never did.
Does any serious model watcher at this stage seriously believe every run as gospel whether good or bad?
If that were the case,new model runs would only come out every 240 hrs..

So relax the kackz folks...
There's two trends developing,a strong cold spell next week,details yet to be nailed but its coming and 2nd potentially more into January if you follow mt craniums reasonably good indicative research OK? What more do ye want?

Not taking them as gospels It's like odds in the bookies changing all the time, but becoming more stable closer to the kick off. The models change we know that
Of course the output can be downgraded from a certain event, it's not a certainty
The downgrade is not made on the future but on previous run. Although the run is a prediction of the future, it still exists as an output now :cool:

As for the cold coming. This is not certain. I still think this wont pan out the way people in here want it too.

whitebriar

Nabber wrote: »

Not taking them as gospels It's like odds in the bookies changing all the time, but becoming more stable closer to the kick off. They change we know that. The output can be downgraded from a certain event, it's not a certainty The downgrade is not made on the future but on previous run. Although the run is a prediction of the future, it still exists as an output now :cool:

As for the cold coming. This is not certain. I still think this wont pan out the way people in here want it too.

I know but like..the point is,we know the rules of the game at this stage.We know outputs chop and change especially post 72 hrs,so why not approach models like real forecasters do.
People in that profession at it a lot longer than you and I using their intuition and blending data from all models now believe air from the east will advect west next week.
They just have low confidence on for how long and ergo how severe.

We are dealing with chaos theory though so I suppose,we could have a hair dryer southwesterly next week but do you know,I doubt it

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

The 168hr chart would not be dry, the Irish sea would be bubbling up convection with the ~20c temperature contrast in from the sea to 850hPa

If there was anything bubbling up at 168 it looks like it would be in weak northerly flow on the ECM at that time. Uppers not quite reaching -8 at 168 either so not quite cold as 2010.



Not that these details matter a hoot because it's 168 hours away

Sponge Bob

I'm interested to see whether the pub run keeps developing the Bombs out in FI myself. So far next weeks Scandi event looks like pushing in sooner against a less resistive atlantic....now to see how soon them Bombs start to spoil the effect.

No change on one thing. Cold next week....colder than any week in winter 11/12

maquiladora

Colder air is held up at 96 hours on the 18Z. Ridge looks squeezed a bit more too. Not much change apart from that.

BEASTERLY

18z... oh dear.

Villain

Queue the downgrade panic from 18z

whitebriar

Indeed.
Just another example of another solution completely different to last nights if we do what we're supposed to do and compare each 18z with its previous and each 12 z with its previous etc

Ie no sign of a solution to specifics at all yet.

I'm having a gingerbread latte and hope it doesn't keep me awake untill the 0z's come out :eek:

BEASTERLY

It has redeemed itself in the last few frames, hopefully it will continue.

Deep Easterly

whitebriar wrote: »

Do ya know you are 100% correct there
Whilst what flow and what strength of cold we have ,we won't really have a handle on for a few days yet,tonights version of a potential solution,screams shallow low creations hugging Irish sea coasts like classic 1980s set ups.
In those episodes,it could snow all day in Dublin with no wind.

Actually that's what happened Xmas week 2010 too.

The general air flow was more easterly during Christmas week 2010 which would have helped to drive showers onto east coast no matter how slack the windflow was.


I am no expert, but shallow lows, if they were to develop in a NNE/N airflow such on the 162hr discussed, would help to draw the showers more away from the coast, rather than onto it. Now if we were in north/east Scotland, maybe it would be a different story, but thankfully we are not.

Model wise, all I see so far is a continuation of the current cool snap, though maybe with a few frosty days thrown in and maybe the odd shower along east and north coasts but overall, ho hum, yawn yawn.

hatrickpatrick

Another newb question (I'm learning though I swear) Where do you go to see the model outputs everyone's talking about? My only source for them at the moment is actually people dropping images in here and netweather. I always used Weather Underground (wunderground.com) for Hurricane Season models of the tropics, but I can't find a section there for UK/Ireland charts?

EDIT: GFS I mean, have the ECM from Meteociel

maquiladora

Getting that (not so old) familiar feeling watching this.

maquiladora

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Another newb question (I'm learning though I swear) Where do you go to see the model outputs everyone's talking about? My only source for them at the moment is actually people dropping images in here and netweather. I always used Weather Underground (wunderground.com) for Hurricane Season models of the tropics, but I can't find a section there for UK/Ireland charts?

EDIT: GFS I mean, have the ECM from Meteociel

GFS is on Meteociel too.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

Lots of models available on the menu on the left.

corksurfer2005

maquiladora wrote: »

Getting that (not so old) familiar feeling watching this.

Can we not just be happy with what we are getting? It's a lot better than last year's muck and it's only the first fortnight of December

maquiladora

corksurfer2005 wrote: »

Can we not just be happy with what we are getting? It's a lot better than last year's muck and it's only the first fortnight of December

That depends on what we actually get.

I have high standards though. Losing a cup final 1-0 or losing it 5-0 still isn't winning the cup.

Let's see how things look in the morning. The lower the expectations, the better the surprise, if there is one.

BLIZZARD7

18z looks fine to me- very very snowy in FI with heights rebuilding- Good signs.

Its just another variation on the same theme that is a cold to very cold easterly/north easterly with snow showers in the east/north east of the country. South east would could see snow too. Details regarding snow will not be clear until about 12 to 24 hours before the event so all will change between now and next week. Great potential there for the next few weeks though and I can see this turning into a very severe spell of weather. Time will tell.

ECM/GFS/UKMO and ensembles will be very important tomorrow as ever with situations like this. Not expecting too much change, just firming up on details like position of short waves, high pressure location, direction of wind over Ireland and temp of 850hpa air.

Very entertaining models at the moment and light years ahead of last winter. Getting the same feeling I got in the lead up to our last few cold spells.





Dan

pauldry

While the severe cold from Baltic may not reach us this month looks quite cold and sometimes -10c is too cold for snow with frost and ice.

There could be a good dollop of snow on the days of 2 to 5c.

At the moment mid December looks a little chillier than the other chilly days with lows nearby we might be lucky. It could be cold all the way up to Christmas day when it will be 11c in Dublin Airport and 6c that night....see December Forecast:)

Caff Caff

After getting home from one hell of a day at work I log in here to see i missed out on nearly 10pges of posts but the main theme being hopes and excitement or just downers. Everyone take a chill pill...so to speak!

As I mentioned already, and my mind hasn't changed since 0z this morn (well it's now yesterday morning) or 12z on Wednesday, we still have a nice set up for cold with wintry precip of sleet, hail and snow. It will be a nice One Two Uniflu from this trending easterly although, again, if only it held on and built up more cold before moving our way...either way it'll hold off the atlantic for a few days at least. Talking about downgrades is futile... thats the yoyo synoptics we've been banging on about all year on here. Wonderful stuff.

Some icy rain here in North East Dublin. Roll on 0z.

davidsr20

It's amazing how this tread switches off lol, leaving snow aside are we still in for a very cold week next week?

BLIZZARD7

davidsr20 wrote: »

It's amazing how this tread switches off lol, leaving snow aside are we still in for a very cold week next week?

Yes a cold week is almost certain, snow wont be certain until its falling.




Dan

Caff Caff

davidsr20 wrote: »

It's amazing how this tread switches off lol, leaving snow aside are we still in for a very cold week next week?

Well it is 1244am on a week night!

Cold yes
very cold...it is looking that way so I would say so.
Severe cold... we'll know this weekend.
Frosty and icy...yes

With the current trend and models indicating uppers at -8 then we have 'potential' for snow but my guess is that it may not be enough for type of dusting many (including myself) are looking for. Then again... let's wait and see the next few runs.

Nabber

PV set to re-strengthen, but still not in control:D Dare I say it SuCampu may have been run out on a correct prediction



Snow has made real inroads into Europe over the past week
1st of december



7th of December

Calibos

"December 7th, a day that will live in infamy"

Ireland becomes the most northern Snow-free point in the hemisphere....

cherryghost

Looking less likely on 06z. We're the centre of a battleground scenario and we lose out, as usual.

DOCARCH

ME still 'on board' as of this morning:

The early part of next week will be cold but mainly dry and bright, though with extensive night frosts occurring in most places; freezing fog will be a problem at night also and, because of the lack of wind, fog and frost may not clear some areas during daylight hours. During the middle and later part of next week, northeast to north breezes will freshen. This means northern and eastern counties will come under threat of snow showers which may lead to accumulations, even at lower levels. However, the rest of the country will stay mainly dry with clear spells.

force eleven

DOCARCH wrote: »

ME still 'on board' as of this morning:

The early part of next week will be cold but mainly dry and bright, though with extensive night frosts occurring in most places; freezing fog will be a problem at night also and, because of the lack of wind, fog and frost may not clear some areas during daylight hours. During the middle and later part of next week, northeast to north breezes will freshen. This means northern and eastern counties will come under threat of snow showers which may lead to accumulations, even at lower levels. However, the rest of the country will stay mainly dry with clear spells.

Yes, ME covering their bases with the ole accumulations possible at lower levels in east and north. Nice dry powdery stuff no doubt. Lets see how the runs go today, watching people looking for a breakdown when the colder weather hasn't even started....

DOCARCH

force eleven wrote: »

... watching people looking for a breakdown when the colder weather hasn't even started....

That's human nature!

I see the 0z ECM rolling out and it appears to have similarities to the 0z GFS with Atlantic trying to break in towards the end of the run.

derekon

DOCARCH wrote: »

That's human nature!

I see the 0z ECM rolling out and it appears to have similarities to the 0z GFS with Atlantic trying to break in towards the end of the run.

I think it might be game over folks. ECM showing Ireland under -8 temps for a couple of days next week before the Atlantic breaks down. Nothing to write home about really

D

DOCARCH

ECM turns quite odd between 168hrs and 192hrs? No raging Atlantic, at least, at the end of that run.

snaps

GFS doesnt show any -8 uppers now over Ireland? GFS also taking away the Scandi High bringing in the Easterlies? It looks a bit messy now with the Low presures que-ing up in the north atlantic waiting to pounce.

ECM much more positive for Cold. Perhaps more of a northerly/North East flow, but better than GFS currently. Thats some large low pressure system though at the end of the ECM run?