Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Tom Cruises Left Nut

maquiladora wrote: »

Getting that (not so old) familiar feeling watching this.

We haven't seen the end of the drama I think. Still plenty of time for changes and of course nowcasting !

BLIZZARD7

t|nt|n wrote: »

We haven't seen the end of the drama I think. Still plenty of time for changes and of course nowcasting !

Agreed, while the models arent the best this morning, who says they have it right? Maybe we will see upgrades later? Or in the morning? Or the next day? Who knows- the only thing is, people would be saying "expect downgrades" now if we had a mega run this morning, so maybe we will get upgrades on the next run? I feel the GFS and possibly other models are over playing that shortwave.




Dan

Tom Cruises Left Nut

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Agreed, while the models arent the best this morning, who says they have it right? Maybe we will see upgrades later? Or in the morning? Or the next day? Who knows- the only thing is, people would be saying "expect downgrades" now if we had a mega run this morning, so maybe we will get upgrades on the next run? I feel the GFS and possibly other models are over playing that shortwave.




Dan

Exactly my thinking. The 12z runs on Sunday are crucial I think. I do get the feeling that the shortwave drama will he resolved by then in a good way.

If not then I will still have that ECM run from the other day saved and ill make a shrine to it ! Ha

StormGazer.11

The models seem to be having difficulty at the moment but I do feel the cooler trend has a decent chance of winning out but as already stated we might have to wait until Sunday for this all to get sorted out be it good or bad news!

This is off topic but I was just reading back over posts from a few weeks ago and noticed Wolfe has closed his account now too?? If he has gone the same as Su and left the site we've lost another great and knowledgeable contributor! Sorry for straying from the topic mods but just wanted to say that Wolfe will be missed if he has infact left us!

Harps

Upgrades, downgrades, whatever, its still at best just a few cool, dry days similar to what today will be like, nothing worth 20 odd pages of hype. FI charts a few days ago were looking cold but nothing remotely reliable has been and current forecasts show a chilly south easterly for a few days before the Atlantic returns

Here's the projected daytime temperatures from this mornings GFS for the height of the 'cold spell', 2 to 6C and dry, much the same as its been for the past two weeks



GFS suite is largely in agreement up until the 12th now with 850hPa temps rarely below -5C

Rebelbrowser

StormGazer.11 wrote: »

The models seem to be having difficulty at the moment but I do feel the cooler trend has a decent chance of winning out but as already stated we might have to wait until Sunday for this all to get sorted out be it good or bad news!

This is off topic but I was just reading back over posts from a few weeks ago and noticed Wolfe has closed his account now too?? If he has gone the same as Su and left the site we've lost another great and knowledgeable contributor! Sorry for straying from the topic mods but just wanted to say that Wolfe will be missed if he has infact left us!

Two really good contributors held in high regard by 95% of us but who, for some ungodly reason, seem to be unable to just ignore the winding up they receive from the other 5%. They are only pandering to that minority by leaving this forum if you ask me. The rest of us would love to have both of them back.

DOCARCH

StormGazer.11 wrote: »

This is off topic but I was just reading back over posts from a few weeks ago and noticed Wolfe has closed his account now too?? If he has gone the same as Su and left the site we've lost another great and knowledgeable contributor!

Sorry, but the cynic in me says there are other (probably quasi commercial) forces at work there.....and not for the first time either!

The vast majority of people who get fed up, or annoyed, simply do not post anymore. Closing your account is making a bold statement!

mickger844posts

Not a great set of overnight runs but still all is not lost. It seems the models are having a hard time with anything beyond 96 or 120h. MT and Met Eireann are still on board with regards snow shower potential from midweek so we will see what today's runs bring us.

Sponge Bob

00z GFS continues to develop ( chaotically) a signal that the cold spell will break down in a week and will be replaced by a sequence of Atlantic Cyclones ...ie a stormy christmas period and not for the first time neither.

By 'Chaotic' I mean that discrete cyclone events appear and disappear almost by the run at present...starting in about a week, but the signal for an active and Cyclonic Atlantic remains constant starting in a week.

So winter, as such, could be OVER by next friday. Everybody who likes winter MAKE THE MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.......

Tom Cruises Left Nut

mickger844posts wrote: »

Not a great set of overnight runs but still all is not lost. It seems the models are having a hard time with anything beyond 96 or 120h. MT and Met Eireann are still on board with regards snow shower potential from midweek so we will see what today's runs bring us.

True, those more in the know would probably not worry about a couple of runs showing a downgrade, they would look at the overall trend

Hoping for a turnaround on the 12z, its all part of the fun !

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Sponge Bob wrote: »

00z GFS continues to develop ( chaotically) a signal that the cold spell will break down in a week and will be replaced by a sequence of Atlantic Cyclones ...ie a stormy christmas period and not for the first time neither.

By 'Chaotic' I mean that discrete cyclone events appear and disappear almost by the run at present...starting in about a week, but the signal for an active and Cyclonic Atlantic remains constant starting in a week.

So winter, as such, could be OVER by next friday. Everybody who likes winter MAKE THE MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.......

SB, that is a bit misleading to be fair !

There may be a mild spell but Winter is far from over

leahyl

It's nearly always the same (apart from 2010!) - mild wet muck for Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Stephens Day....sigh

whitebriar

Harps wrote: »

Upgrades, downgrades, whatever, its still at best just a few cool, dry days similar to what today will be like, nothing worth 20 odd pages of hype. FI charts a few days ago were looking cold but nothing remotely reliable has been and current forecasts show a chilly south easterly for a few days before the Atlantic returns

Here's the projected daytime temperatures from this mornings GFS for the height of the 'cold spell', 2 to 6C and dry, much the same as its been for the past two weeks



GFS suite is largely in agreement up until the 12th now with 850hPa temps rarely below -5C

AH NOW..
what we have now is cool,next week will be cold,the two are very different.
You know that.

Since when were gfs temp predictions reliable especially 5 days away? I must have missed that memo.

With all due respect,I am always disappointed how both here and on netweather how long time posters ( not you specifically) can still comment like its there first time reading.

I'll repeat what I said last night,severe cold is going to advect west over Ireland,no certainty yet on shower detail or on longevity ok?

kennyb3

Looking at the bbc 5 day forecasts for London and other places in england (e.g Newcastle), no snow is forecast early next week. This surely has to be a concern as if they aren't getting any surely we aren't.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

kennyb3 wrote: »

Looking at the bbc 5 day forecasts for London and other places in england (e.g Newcastle), no snow is forecast early next week. This surely has to be a concern as if they aren't getting any surely we aren't.

I did read somewhere that the BBC were slow in updating these, they may be out of date

Here is from the MET

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:
Sunday rather cloudy with light rain, turning colder and brighter from the north. Monday and Tuesday cold and bright, with blustery and increasingly wintry showers. Overnight frosts throughout.
Updated: 0320 on Fri 7 Dec 2012


UK Outlook for Tuesday 11 Dec 2012 to Thursday 20 Dec 2012:
Cold weather is likely to continue during the middle of December, with temperatures generally significantly colder than normal for the time of year. Most areas should see plenty of fine, dry and sunny weather, although there is a risk of wintry showers. These are most likely to affect eastern areas at first, but they could become more widespread later in the forecast period, potentially reaching all parts of the UK. There will be widespread overnight frosts, and with these there is a risk of ice forming, especially around showers. There is also a risk of freezing fog forming in some places. Although the UK outlook is for generally cold conditions to dominate, there are some indications of milder, wetter weather affecting some western and southwestern areas at times.
Updated: 1131 on Thu 6 Dec 2012

Sponge Bob

kennyb3 wrote: »

This surely has to be a concern as if they aren't getting any surely we aren't.

Thats not true. The UK may be clear of clouds and in a dry cold but we might get a bit of Atlantic damp coming in and meeting the cold overhead, eg a la the January 1982 event. Early signs are that later in the week may be the best chance.

Elmer Blooker

Sponge Bob wrote: »

00z GFS continues to develop ( chaotically) a signal that the cold spell will break down in a week and will be replaced by a sequence of Atlantic Cyclones ...ie a stormy christmas period and not for the first time neither.

By 'Chaotic' I mean that discrete cyclone events appear and disappear almost by the run at present...starting in about a week, but the signal for an active and Cyclonic Atlantic remains constant starting in a week.

So winter, as such, could be OVER by next friday. Everybody who likes winter MAKE THE MOST OF THE COMING WEEK.......

We cant say for certain that winter will be over in a week. The charts this morning are a mess if you ask me and the Atlantic always breaks through eventually. The best we can hope for is for the cold to cling on in the UK which is often the case and then see a return to colder conditions from the east after a milder period. This what I think will happen. Xmas 1981 saw most of the UK snow covered but lying snow had already thawed in Ireland.
My father told me that in 1963 English football clubs used to come over to Ireland and play Irish clubs for much needed match practice which wasn't possible in the snowbound UK. The winter obviously wasn't as severe here in Ireland due to these milder Atlantic interludes.
It shouldn't be forgotten either that Dec 2010 (the first sub zero month in Dublin since 1881) had a milder interlude in the middle.
I wouldn't agree that winter is over because of a few FI charts.
Example: After a major freeze at new year this chart doesn't look very interesting but the rest of Jan and Feb that winter were easterly.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1979/Rrea00119790106.gif

Weathering

kennyb3 wrote: »

Looking at the bbc 5 day forecasts for London and other places in england (e.g Newcastle), no snow is forecast early next week. This surely has to be a concern as if they aren't getting any surely we aren't.

Hasn't even snowed yet and everyones tlking sbout when its getn milder

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Uppers looking a bit better here at T78

I think the shortwave looks less of an issue though may be wrong !

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Winds from the right !

Deank

t|nt|n wrote: »

Winds from the right !

Looks promising for snow especially if the Irish sea is bubbling

Villain

Deank wrote: »

Looks promising for snow especially if the Irish sea is bubbling

Based on current charts the upper temps wouldn't be low enough.

I wouldn't be happy with the 06z but models always struggle in these scenarios, +72 is probably FI at the moment.

Supercell

Look like 70:30 sleety rain at sea level but whiteout in hilly/mountain areas imho, Wicklow mountains will get a pasting . Think I'll be taking a spin up to Roundwood, Annamoe, Laragh and Glendalough next week.

maw368

kennyb3 wrote: »

Looking at the bbc 5 day forecasts for London and other places in england (e.g Newcastle), no snow is forecast early next week. This surely has to be a concern as if they aren't getting any surely we aren't.

Yes but if you watch the BBC, their forecasts are often wrong, they change a number of times a day and change god knows how many times a week. I was supposed to have been getting a whole day of heavy rain yesterday, then it had snow with rain and in reality there was a bit of snow, bit of rain and the rest of the day was nice.

gothwalk

leahyl wrote: »

It's nearly always the same (apart from 2010!) - mild wet muck for Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Stephens Day....sigh

I have a vague recollection of reading somewhere that that's been the case for hundreds of years in Western Europe (since the early medieval era, at least), and that the precise date of Christmas was deliberately settled in that typical "niche" in the weather patterns so that people had a better chance of travelling.

Now, that sounds like justification after the fact, but I think it's observably true (he said, having looked at no temperature records) that no matter what the weather before and after, there's an uptick in temperatures very close to the 25th in most years.

I must take a look when I find a few spare minutes (probably on December 25th, at this rate...) and see what the actual records look like for that.

maw368

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

We cant say for certain that winter will be over in a week. The charts this morning are a mess if you ask me and the Atlantic always breaks through eventually. The best we can hope for is for the cold to cling on in the UK which is often the case and then see a return to colder conditions from the east after a milder period. This what I think will happen. Xmas 1981 saw most of the UK snow covered but lying snow had already thawed in Ireland.
My father told me that in 1963 English football clubs used to come over to Ireland and play Irish clubs for much needed match practice which wasn't possible in the snowbound UK. The winter obviously wasn't as severe here in Ireland due to these milder Atlantic interludes.
It shouldn't be forgotten either that Dec 2010 (the first sub zero month in Dublin since 1881) had a milder interlude in the middle.
I wouldn't agree that winter is over because of a few FI charts.
Example: After a major freeze at new year this chart doesn't look very interesting but the rest of Jan and Feb that winter were easterly.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1979/Rrea00119790106.gif

It is strange how all the excitement can turn to sudden negativity due to a a one morning FI chart. Most here constantly point out that cold FI charts are prone to change a lot before it happens and then one morning of mild FI charts and you are all doom and gloom, forgetting your own advice that they could change a lot before it happens.

The charts are not always right either, in fact they are often wrong. Basing this mornings run as evidence of no coming cold or snow, the end of winter already is a bit dramatic. The people saying about these cold FI charts are generally meaningless, are the very people that seem to take this mornings FI charts as absolute.

This is not a criticism, just a contradiction, I think bias is the right word; not intentionally but still bias

BEASTERLY

Just a quick post, certainly baby steps in the right direction on the 6z GFS compared to the 0z.

BEASTERLY

maw368 wrote: »

It is strange how all the excitement can turn to sudden negativity due to a a one morning FI chart. Most here constantly point out that cold FI charts are prone to change a lot before it happens and then one morning of mild FI charts and you are all doom and gloom, forgetting your own advice that they could change a lot before it happens.

There has been a trend in the models backing off a cold spell, the negativity certainly isnt due to one run in FI.

BLIZZARD7

BEASTERLY wrote: »

There has been a trend in the models backing off a cold spell, the negativity certainly isnt due to one run in FI.

The models always wobble in the lead up to a cold spell though- Im expecting short term upgrades over next 2 days...




Dan

munsterlegend

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

The models always wobble in the lead up to a cold spell though- Im expecting short term upgrades over next 2 days...




Dan

From my reading of it I believe the UK will certainly be fine in terms of snow potential. We again might be on the wrong line of things unless there is a further shift west in what is modelled. The East and North in Ireland have as always a better chance in such a set up.

Any invasion from the West nearly always end in failure for my location anyway. In terms of 62 I wonder how long was the cold already in place before the attack from the West and was it a country wide event? UK again seems best placed for this battleground.