Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

Tom Cruises Left Nut

munsterlegend wrote: »

From my reading of it I believe the UK will certainly be fine in terms of snow potential. We again might be on the wrong line of things unless there is a further shift west in what is modelled. The East and North in Ireland have as always a better chance in such a set up.

Any invasion from the West nearly always end in failure for my location anyway. In terms of 62 I wonder how long was the cold already in place before the attack from the West and was it a country wide event? UK again seems best placed for this battleground.

Hold till the 12z runs on Sunday, then we can cry if we need to I reckon

maw368

BEASTERLY wrote: »

There has been a trend in the models backing off a cold spell, the negativity certainly isnt due to one run in FI.

I don't know because I haven't seen for myself, worked 15 hour shift yesterday so I only skip through this forum every now and then when I get chance. But in the last 48 hours I was under the impression from this board that it was trending cold, with most here in agreement. Comments like, that is the best ECM run I have ever seen. Maybe I am mistaken but I am sure most here up until yesterday was convinced the prospects were good.

I appreciate that things may have changed, but that is the point right? yoyo is the word I hear people mention a lot or rollercoaster, is it not unjustified at this stage to write off the whole of winter as Sponge Bob did... though I am not sure if he was being serious. It is early days and with peoples levels of certainty appearing to be pretty much only a few days ahead, then isn't there every chance the charts will swing the other way again shortly and be back to a cold trend.

Speak Now

Still could go either way!

Jostef

Things aren't so bad as far as I can see. The GFS has gone all to sh*t this morning but the ECMF, CFS and BOM seem to be on course for nice weather next week.......at least to my untrained eye. Even the UKMO is heading in the right direction.
Give it a chance lads! What do the more knowledgeable on here think of the runs from these charts?

Sponge Bob

UK FAX just rolling out. Hmmm

ZX7R

Jostef wrote: »

Things aren't so bad as far as I can see. The GFS has gone all to sh*t this morning but the ECMF, CFS and BOM seem to be on course for nice weather next week.......at least to my untrained eye. Even the UKMO is heading in the right direction.
Give it a chance lads! What do the more knowledgeable on here think of the runs from these charts?

I agree jostef ,some nice winter weather next week from the majority of the charts ,i,think people just need to forget about what we got two years ago.
i am no expert on the charts, but i think people are reading to much into them ,they change with every run they will have slight up grades,and down grades ,at the moment all we know is, we will have a good week of cold winter weather next week.

Weathering

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/20643497

whitebriar

Nothing has changed.
We're still only clear on the next 96hrs.

Compare today's weather with what any of the models said it would be 144 hrs ago and it will confirm there's no point in worrying!

Look at indications,we know blockings coming don't we

Oh and read the threads in the run up to the 2010 spell for guidance on how usual uncertainty is and how misguided even the regulars can be calling it.

Also read threads from 2007 and 2008 and any from 2004 onwards and then rejoice you're not stuck in those.

Look at threads from Jan 13th 2007 onwards to see nirvana turn to dust.

kennyb3

Sponge Bob wrote: »

UK FAX just rolling out. Hmmm

Have to say i don't understand this image a jot, i can read the others as i'm now familiar with them. Anyone care to explain?

Min

kennyb3 wrote: »

Have to say i don't understand this image a jot, i can read the others as i'm now familiar with them. Anyone care to explain?

A high blocking the Atlantic to the north/north west and also south of Ireland. Winds from the north east, not that strong, showers being generated off the Irish sea, likely to be wintry in nature but only for coastal margins and in the 2nd chart, there would be showers in the southwest, also likely to be wintry.
That is my reading however right or wrong.

maquiladora

The 528 dam line is still out over the Irish Sea on those FAX charts so showers falling as snow at low levels in Ireland doesn't look likely there.

I just remembered I posted this two days ago.

It will be interesting to see how things stand 48 hours from now : still on course for a beasterly, or clutching the straws of another delayed, watered down cold spell?

Duiske

whitebriar wrote: »

Nothing has changed.
We're still only clear on the next 96hrs.

To be honest, everything has changed. From charts 3 days ago showing a full blown easterly and potential for significant snow to charts this morning showing high pressure over Ireland with little chance of snow. The risk of snow now comes from a clash between milder air moving in later next week coming up against colder air over eastern areas, but even this risk may be confined to higher ground in the east and north-east. The only difference now between GFS and ECM is that the latter delays the transition from colder to milder by a day or so.

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

The 528 dam line is still out over the Irish Sea on those FAX charts so showers falling as snow at low levels in Ireland doesn't look likely there.

I just remembered I posted this two days ago.

Look on the bright side - you were right :pac:

But I know it is very disappointing once again - from the model watchers on here, like yourself, it doesn't look too positive for severe cold and snow lovers

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Faith is needed people !

Remember that a feature can be picked up at any point and have significant changes on the entire run, I am hoping that the shortwave issue is not there / watered down on the 12z as it seemed to be less pronounced on the 06z

As I said earlier we have more runs to nail this yet, the medium term is not certain

Weathering

Living on high ground in eastern Donegal I'm guaranteed snow no matter happens suckers

icesnowfrost

Does anyone no if kipoure has lying snow at the moment

Weathering

Interesting article guys http://www.britishweatherservices.co.uk/to-snow-or-not-to-snow/

BLIZZARD7

Well im glad we have cleared that up then, the next week is set in stone, a bit of frost, wintry showers on high ground only and then the atlantic back in control by next weekend.

Im starting to get very frustrated as these are posters who know how volatile this setup is and how uncertain the outlook is.

Look at the charts before 1947,1963,1979,1982,1987,1991,2010 and see how clear it was that severe cold was coming, say 4 days before. I am defintley not expecting anything on the scale of those winters next week but I wouldnt rule it out and I defintley wouldnt be so sure of the atlantic being in control by the end of the week.

Also would people stop being so certain of snow or no snow next week- We will most likely see many opportunities and some surprise snowfall is probable too.

Rant over...




Dan

munsterlegend

I'd love to know what the charts last weeks said today would be like be it GFS or ECM! When professionals are saying low confidence it means they really are just guessing like the rest of us. I just have a feeling that there will be more positive winter snow news over the weekend.

Trotter

I don't remember ever knowing in advance that snowfall was absolutely due where I live. In fact, I was so sure in 2010/11 that I was out of the game, I went to Dublin and missed the biggest snowfall in years at home. I nearly had to sled back down the M9.

DOCARCH

Eyes down now for the 12z GFS - starting to roll out now.

Lets spin that wheel! :pac:

kennyb3

It's times like this, it would be lovely to hear even more from MT, the sensible soul that he is, and an added bit of analysis over an above the daily weather.

Actually generally when you do hear from him you know something is going to happen.

zidewayz

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Does anyone no if kipoure has lying snow at the moment

It does. was on top of Seehan earlier at approx 620m asl with small bit of icey snow remains. Kippure and seefingan looked even whiter. Would expect kippure to have fresh snow from last night. There is a good thaw in place though. Will post pics later.

Weathering

Seems on the latest charts that the easterly wind is a non event and high pressure is practically sitting on us,what is most intriguing is when the supposed cold spell was suppose to break down by next weekend it looks as if the easterly wind will start up then??? Right FC wrong timing?? I think the charts mean nothing to be perfectly honestly,they change more than a women's outfit

hatrickpatrick

Feckin' Azores High :mad:

Spindle

Weathering wrote: »

Seems on the latest charts that the easterly wind is a non event and high pressure is practically sitting on us,what is most intriguing is when the supposed cold spell was suppose to break down by next weekend it looks as if the easterly wind will start up then??? Right FC wrong timing?? I think the charts mean nothing to be perfectly honestly,they change more than a women's outfit

That's what happens when you pick a point in time 7+ days away, see a chart you like, and then base all your hopes on that chart verifying exactly as it is shown.

If you didn't know the other chart existed you would be happy with the fact that an easterly was so close and might break through :cool:

If the models are interrupted correctly it shows you that the potential exists for such conditions and you can factor that into determining what chance of the such a chart verifying.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Right over to UKMO and ECM.

If they agree then im off to lapland

DOCARCH

New balls please. :P

whitebriar

Lol would ye and the Netweather crowd cop the hell on.
Here we go again,the ukmo has been Fcekin useless for weeks,so wrong the ukmo hahaven't been using it and its their model don't you know

Now we have the always Atlantic favouring gfs going to an opposite warm extreme just like the ecm did with its super cold 12z the other night.

Both extremes are and were highly unlikely so will ye relax the kacks once again?

Are ye aware the best model around is the ecm? Its 32 dated often flips and they're all over the place right now for who knows what reason.

I'm confident of air advection over us from Europe next week OK?
Not sure if models can handle properly whether this will persist or be short lived untill its here OK?

So relax snow bunnies OK ?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

whitebriar wrote: »

Lol would ye and the Netweather crowd cop the hell on.
Here we go again,the ukmo has been Fcekin useless for weeks,so wrong the ukmo hahaven't been using it and its their model don't you know

Now we have the always Atlantic favouring gfs going to an opposite warm extreme just like the ecm did with its super cold 12z the other night.

Both extremes are and were highly unlikely so will ye relax the kacks once again?

Are ye aware the best model around is the ecm? Its 32 dated often flips and they're all over the place right now for who knows what reason.

I'm confident of air advection over us from Europe next week OK?
Not sure if models can handle properly whether this will persist or be short lived untill its here OK?

So relax snow bunnies OK ?

The change in colour suits you ! Ha

Over to the ECM now !