Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

maquiladora

It's absolutely game over for this round guys. Clutching at straws would be quite daft at this stage. You can clearly see the progressive downgrading since the 06Z yesterday. Best thing to do is draw a line under this one and look ahead to the next potential cold spell.

It's only the first week of winter.

P.S. GFS hinting at a windstorm next weekend. Something to keep an eye on in future runs.

Deep Easterly

whitebriar wrote: »

I'm confident of air advection over us from Europe next week OK?

What are you basing this on? because the most reliable of models have not shown this 'severe cold air' (as you called it earlier) coming from Europe. What we are looking at is a very much modified mA at best.

Sponge Bob

maquiladora wrote: »

P.S. GFS hinting at a windstorm next weekend. Something to keep an eye on in future runs.

Been hinting for days Pete...how long have I been hinting about the hinting??

MT, OTOH, predicted the windstorm outbreak so its over to him to explain that a bit more.

whitebriar

Deep Easterly wrote: »

What are you basing this on? because the most reliable of models have not shown this 'severe cold air' (as you called it earlier) coming from Europe. What we are looking at is a very much modified mA at best.

Lol.
Last I checked Britain was in Europe for a start.
Any air originating in Scandinavia that makes it down here is from Europe and lastly any air shunted off our island onto the Arran islands or inis mhicileain originates in Europe.
-6 850 or colder even if only a guess by some outputs have been guessed at frequently.
I think its reasonable to assume that's the type of air coming here if air originates east of Britain.

Seriously though too,I read the USNws scientific discussions on wunderground a lot and they've thrown out the 12z's tonight and are not overly happy with even the ecm handle on things.

I saw your post to me last night but got...errrr distracted but I was going to ask what's wrong is it not deep enough for you

Elmer Blooker

maquiladora wrote: »

It's absolutely game over for this round guys. Clutching at straws would be quite daft at this stage. You can clearly see the progressive downgrading since the 06Z yesterday. Best thing to do is draw a line under this one and look ahead to the next potential cold spell.

It probably is game over but I wouldn't say absolutely game over just yet. I think there will be more northern blocking patterns this winter.
I cant find anything wrong with this chart even if it is a week away. What would we have done for a chart like this last winter?
edit: only two posts in the past hour!!

Harps

whitebriar wrote: »

AH NOW..
what we have now is cool,next week will be cold,the two are very different.
You know that.

Since when were gfs temp predictions reliable especially 5 days away? I must have missed that memo.

With all due respect,I am always disappointed how both here and on netweather how long time posters ( not you specifically) can still comment like its there first time reading.

I'll repeat what I said last night,severe cold is going to advect west over Ireland,no certainty yet on shower detail or on longevity ok?

How does my post read like a first time poster? I gave an opinion that it won't be anything too severe or particularly interesting and backed it up with evidence, I know the GFS temp output isn't accurate to the degC but it still gives a general idea of what to expect and -5C 850hPa temp from maritime sourced air isn't overly cold. Looks like low single figure temps by day and hard frosts by night which is perfectly normal on a clear, calm winters night

Tom Cruises Left Nut

NOAA update literally calls the GFS 12z bonkers !

MADE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE UPDATE PACKAGE FOR THE FINAL
ISSUANCE. AS A WHOLE, THE 12Z/07 GUIDANCE OFFERED A DIZZYING ARRAY
OF SOLUTIONS FOR THIS PERIOD, WITH THE 20 GEFS MEMBERS SO
DISPARATE AS TO ELUDE ARITHMETIC CLUSTERING TOOLS. MUCH OF THE
SPREAD WAS OVER THE EAST, WHERE THE POLAR FRONT IS SUBJECT TO
PULLING AND TUGGING FROM VARIOUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES. THE 12Z/07
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF WAS COMFORTINGLY SIMILAR TO ITS 00Z/07 RUN-
UPON WHICH THE UPDATE PACKAGE WAS LARGELY BASED.

whitebriar

Harps wrote: »

How does my post read like a first time poster? I gave an opinion that it won't be anything too severe or particularly interesting and backed it up with evidence, I know the GFS temp output isn't accurate to the degC but it still gives a general idea of what to expect and -5C 850hPa temp from maritime sourced air isn't overly cold. Looks like low single figure temps by day and hard frosts by night which is perfectly normal on a clear, calm winters night

Firstly Sorry,It wasn't meant like that.
I just disagreed with your thoughts or rather what you expect to happen mainly from the stand point that there's no certainty at the moment to go on other than the intuition of professionals in Glasnevin and Exeter suggesting game on OK?.
I don't regard the gf's tonight at all or even the cold ones earlier or that infamous icy ecm.
I guess the point is,I'm repeating keep the faith.
It may or may not be a short game.
I'm not saying either,but I do feel giving up the ghost altogether tonight here or on NW and a lot are is ott.

Gonzo

this cold spell looks like a dead duck alright. but fear not it's only the start of December. Im nearly 40 years of sitting though these rubbish Irish winters and back in the 80s and early 90s our winters were very good but even then the snow didnt really fall till after Christmas Day, sometimes it wasnt till late February and into March, even the odd April snowfest so alot of play for yet. Just surprised that Met Eireann were forecasting snow a week in advance, not usually like them. btw winter 2010 was a total exception, not sure i'll see a winter to start that great again in my lifetime.

M.T. Cranium

I look at the current model output as glass half full sort of thing, when there was a more robust westward push of cold air it looked overdone anyway, so what we have now seems realistic and also brings into play the possibility of frontal boundary snowfall in eastern regions (Thursday in particular) with details far from clear yet (would remind people that the low currently passing Britain was not on the charts a few days ago). I would be skeptical of the deep low on the GFS but something almost as strong is plausible looking at other models.

We seem to be in one of those upgrade-downgrade cycles that always seem to come ahead of actual cold outbreaks, and this is far from a "raging Atlantic" scenario, the situation may have a surprise ending if the Atlantic can't push back hard enough in the final stages.

ZX7R

t|nt|n wrote: »

NOAA update literally calls the GFS 12z bonkers !

So does that mean to ignore them and use the earlier run

Sponge Bob

UKMO Fax is steadily encroaching the wets onto the west coast, now if that cold made it all the way across we might see a bit of snow in Mayo. I'll post photos.

zidewayz

zidewayz wrote: »

It does. was on top of Seehan earlier at approx 620m asl with small bit of icey snow remains. Kippure and seefingan looked even whiter. Would expect kippure to have fresh snow from last night. There is a good thaw in place though. Will post pics later.

Just a few from Seehan this afternoon. Not great quality.
Will I open up a new thread in the pictures thread for Winter 12/13 photos?

icesnowfrost

zidewayz wrote: »

Just a few from Seehan this afternoon. Not great quality.
Will I open up a new thread in the pictures thread for Winter 12/13 photos?

Is that Kippure today ?

icesnowfrost

Is it worth taking a walk up Kippure tomorrow, is there snow there

Weathering

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I look at the current model output as glass half full sort of thing, when there was a more robust westward push of cold air it looked overdone anyway, so what we have now seems realistic and also brings into play the possibility of frontal boundary snowfall in eastern regions (Thursday in particular) with details far from clear yet (would remind people that the low currently passing Britain was not on the charts a few days ago). I would be skeptical of the deep low on the GFS but something almost as strong is plausible looking at other models.

We seem to be in one of those upgrade-downgrade cycles that always seem to come ahead of actual cold outbreaks, and this is far from a "raging Atlantic" scenario, the situation may have a surprise ending if the Atlantic can't push back hard enough in the final stages.

True. Hard to know mt. In reality tho what we think tonight will be different tomorrow

Elmer Blooker

no downgrade from ME apparently, this forecast was issued at 1920.

During the middle and later part of next week, northeast to north breezes will freshen. This means northern and eastern counties will come under threat of snow showers which may lead to accumulations, even at lower levels. However, the rest of the country will stay mainly dry with clear spells.

perhaps this should be in the ramping thread.

zidewayz

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Is it worth taking a walk up Kippure tomorrow, is there snow there

There will be lying snow up there tom but don't expect it to be soft underfoot. More crusty than crunchy. Don't forget to take a few snaps while your up there.

heffoo

nice fall of snow in wicklow last night at 12.30 above 150mtrs im at 220mtrs and it was quite heavy

John.Icy

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

It probably is game over but I wouldn't say absolutely game over just yet. I think there will be more northern blocking patterns this winter.
I cant find anything wrong with this chart even if it is a week away. What would we have done for a chart like this last winter?
edit: only two posts in the past hour!!

That chart actually isn't a million miles away from the massive 1982 snow event.

A few corrections south and their is potential for massive snowstorms appearing in model output in the next few days if the Atlantic is going to creep back in...all depends on how much cold can trickle across to us!

Daniel2590

We've got our first white pixels! :P

Harps

whitebriar wrote: »

Firstly Sorry,It wasn't meant like that.
I just disagreed with your thoughts or rather what you expect to happen mainly from the stand point that there's no certainty at the moment to go on other than the intuition of professionals in Glasnevin and Exeter suggesting game on OK?.
I don't regard the gf's tonight at all or even the cold ones earlier or that infamous icy ecm.
I guess the point is,I'm repeating keep the faith.
It may or may not be a short game.
I'm not saying either,but I do feel giving up the ghost altogether tonight here or on NW and a lot are is ott.

Fair enough, there's nothing going to happen in the west regardless which I suppose explains my complete lack of interest in the whole spell. There could be a chance of some frontal snow on the 13th if numerous parameters play ball, tonight's ECMWF has exactly that over the northern half of the country. Obviously predicting frontal snow at that range is totally pointless but its another thing to keep an eye on in these uneventful times

icesnowfrost

Met eireann are now going with the battle between mild air and cold air from Wednesday onwards.... Wats everyone's thoughts on this

heffoo

hope met are onto something. had a lovely fall up here in the wicklow hills last nite.

davidsr20

I'm quite lost as usual, is this a winter tread or snow tread,! Are we still in for a cold 11-16th next week like mt predicted?

Weathering

davidsr20 wrote: »

I'm quite lost as usual, is this a winter tread or snow tread,! Are we still in for a cold 11-16th next week like mt predicted?

Cold yes? snow, pessimistic chance. Quite annoying I know, this time yday I was full expecting a dose of it.

Larbre34

icesnowfrost wrote: »

Met eireann are now going with the battle between mild air and cold air from Wednesday onwards.... Wats everyone's thoughts on this

for 4 days ive been saying battleground, i now think from Tuesday there will be cold dry weather with negligible precip, light accumulations at elevation east, cold air will not establish enough for disruption

dacogawa

Larbre34 wrote: »

for 4 days ive been saying battleground, i now think from Tuesday there will be cold dry weather with negligible precip, light accumulations at elevation east, cold air will not establish enough for disruption

That is so straight it's probably right on the money, as much as I wish it wasn't! (I want snow!!!)

We all hope for snow, there might be a bit of snow (east/north) but there might not... but don't worry there's over 2 1/2 months left of winter!

Weathering

dacogawa wrote: »

That is so straight it's probably right on the money, as much as I wish it wasn't! (I want snow!!!)

We all hope for snow, there might be a bit of snow (east/north) but there might not... but don't worry there's over 2 1/2 months left of winter!

everything will changed again by morning.
BIPOLAR weather

DOCARCH

No real change with 00z, output not dramatically different than yesterdays runs with Atlantic wining by Thursday.

ME forecast/outlook has caught up this morning:

WEDNESDAY: Cold again for much of the country, but looking milder in the southwest and south with increasing cloud, strengthening southeast winds and some rain. Elsewhere it will probably stay mainly dry with sunny spells. Present indications are that rain will gradually spread northwards across the country on Wednesday night, possibly falling as sleet or hill snow over northern parts.

FURTHER OUTLOOK: Uncertain, with the boundary between cold air to the north and mild air to the south near or over Ireland.